Mustang SC
ECNL Girls · Northern Cal GU17 · 12 teams · Mustang Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
Provident Field @ MSC, Upper ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.8 for, 1.3 against · 2.75 expected points)
| Season so far | Mustang SC | COSC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Points per game | 1.78 | 1.10 |
| Goals for / game | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 3.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L W | L D L D L |
| Biggest win | 10–1 at Santa Rosa United | 7–3 vs Stanislaus Surf |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Bay Area Surf | 0–9 vs MVLA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.06 | -0.73 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.30 | +0.08 |
Common opponents: Davis Legacy — we 4–0; they 0–1. Force — we 1–1; they 1–7. MVLA — we 1–2; they 0–9. Bay Area Surf — we 0–2; they 1–2. Marin FC — we 8–0; they 5–2. Placer United — we 0–1; they 1–1. Stanislaus Surf — we 5–1; they 7–3. Santa Rosa United — we 10–1; they 5–2. Pleasanton RAGE — we 6–1; they 1–3.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Bay Area Surf, 0–1 at Placer United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the COSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mustang SC – COSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.90 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.90 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
| Draw 1.70 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.60 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 4%
- 3rd 21%
- 4th 52%
- 5th 17%
- 6th 6%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.48 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Force | 2.75 (+0.97) | 2nd (2.45) | 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 2 | MVLA | 2.67 (+0.89) | 1st (2.58) | 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Bay Area Surf | 2.57 (+0.79) | 3rd (2.25) | 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 4 | Placer United | 2.11 (+0.33) | 5th (1.77) | 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
How the results connect
71 chains · 12 teams
Paths of results that link Mustang SC to COSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.35 · 11th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
COSC 9th · 3-2-5 · GD -9 |
Home Provident Field @ MSC |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–1 | 2.75 | 1.88 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Davis Legacy 8th · 4-0-5 · GD +1 |
Home Provident Field @ MSC |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.49 | 1.93 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 02:25 PM |
Bay Area Surf 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +24 |
Away far trip
Willow Glen High School · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.11 | 1.86 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM |
Marin FC 10th · 2-0-8 · GD -43 |
Home Provident Field @ MSC |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.97 | 1.95 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Force 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +28 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.99 | 1.88 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Placer United 4th · 6-1-2 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–0 | 2.17 | 1.90 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Santa Rosa United 11th · 0-0-9 · GD -38 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
6–0 | 2.97 | 1.96 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
Stanislaus Surf 12th · 0-0-10 · GD -45 |
Away far trip
Mary Grogan Community Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.94 | 2.02 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
San Juan SC 6th · 5-1-3 · GD +14 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 2.02 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Pleasanton RAGE 7th · 5-0-4 · GD +0 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–1 | 2.57 | 2.05 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 03:00 PM |
San Juan SC 6th · 5-1-3 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Tiemann Law Firm Fields at San Juan Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.65 | 2.03 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 10:00 AM |
COSC 9th · 3-2-5 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Edison High School Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
4–1 | 2.59 | 2.05 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Force | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 4 | +28 | 22 | 2.75 | WWWWW | -0.51 | +0.00 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pleasanton RAGE · Sun Oct 25 at Marin FC · Sat Oct 31 vs COSC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | MVLA | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 5 | +38 | 24 | 2.67 | LWWWW | -0.11 | -0.46 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Stanislaus Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Marin FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Bay Area Surf | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 3 | +24 | 18 | 2.57 | WLWWW | -0.92 | +0.27 | 96% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MVLA · Sun Oct 25 at Pleasanton RAGE · Sat Oct 31 vs Mustang SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Placer United | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 19 | 2.11 | WWWDL | +0.20 | -0.06 | 14% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Marin FC · Sun Oct 25 at San Juan SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Davis Legacy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Mustang SC | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 9 | +26 | 16 | 1.78 | WLWWW | -0.30 | -0.35 | 77% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs Davis Legacy · Sat Oct 31 at Bay Area Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | San Juan SC | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 16 | 1.78 | WLDLW | -0.27 | +0.12 | 13% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davis Legacy · Sun Oct 25 vs Placer United · Sat Oct 31 at Santa Rosa United See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pleasanton RAGE | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 21 | +0 | 15 | 1.67 | WLWLL | -0.32 | +0.39 | 0% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Force · Sun Oct 25 vs Bay Area Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Stanislaus Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Davis Legacy | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 12 | 1.33 | WWWLW | -0.43 | +0.31 | 0% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 31 at Placer United See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | COSC | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 11 | 1.10 | LDLDL | +0.08 | +0.28 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Rosa United · Sat Oct 31 at Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Marin FC | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 56 | -43 | 6 | 0.60 | LLWWL | +0.25 | +0.33 | 0% | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Placer United · Sun Oct 25 vs Force · Sat Oct 31 vs MVLA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Santa Rosa United | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 44 | -38 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.42 | +0.28 | 0% | 11.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 25 at COSC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Juan SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Stanislaus Surf | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 52 | -45 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.64 | +0.05 | 0% | 11.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Santa Rosa United · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sat Oct 31 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.