Stanislaus Surf

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Trione Fields, Trione West ↗ far trip

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.6 against · 1.55 expected points)

Common opponents: MVLA — we 0–10; they 0–6. COSC — we 0–1; they 1–7. San Juan SC — we 1–4; they 0–4. Pleasanton RAGE — we 1–3; they 1–0. Placer United — we 1–2; they 1–2. Bay Area Surf — we 1–4; they 1–7. Mustang SC — we 0–5; they 0–12. Marin FC — we 1–2; they 0–0. Force — we 1–2; they 0–1. Davis Legacy — we 3–2; they 3–0.

• They struggle to score
  Santa Rosa United average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 5 of 10.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Santa Rosa United concede 3.9/game; worst result 0–12 vs Mustang SC.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–10 at MVLA, 0–1 at COSC, 0–5 at Mustang SC.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 44% / draw 22% / loss 34%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Away game
  Kickoff 12:00 PM at Trione Fields.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Pleasanton RAGE sit 11th on 0.33 PPG; we are on 0.30.

  A point moves us above Pleasanton RAGE on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Santa Rosa United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Stanislaus Surf – Santa Rosa United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 11th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th 3%
9. 9th 15%
10. 10th 32%
11. 11th 39%
12. 12th 11%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 1.77 PPG if we win out).