Santa Rosa United
ECNL Girls · Northern Cal GU15 · 12 teams · Santa Rosa United Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.9 against · 1.23 expected points)
| Season so far | Santa Rosa United | Stanislaus Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-7 | 1-0-9 |
| Points per game | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| Goals for / game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals against / game | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 5 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L D L L W | W L L L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Davis Legacy | 3–2 at Davis Legacy |
| Worst loss | 0–12 vs Mustang SC | 0–10 at MVLA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.22 | -1.71 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.37 | +0.35 |
Common opponents: COSC — we 1–7; they 0–1. Placer United — we 1–2; they 1–2. Bay Area Surf — we 1–7; they 1–4. San Juan SC — we 0–4; they 1–4. Pleasanton RAGE — we 1–0; they 1–3. Davis Legacy — we 3–0; they 3–2. MVLA — we 0–6; they 0–10. Mustang SC — we 0–12; they 0–5. Marin FC — we 0–0; they 1–2. Force — we 0–1; they 1–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Stanislaus Surf average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 3 of 10.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Stanislaus Surf concede 3.5/game; worst result 0–10 at MVLA.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–4 at San Juan SC, 0–6 at MVLA, 0–12 vs Mustang SC, 0–0 at Marin FC, 0–1 vs Force.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 34%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Davis Legacy sit 9th on 0.89 PPG; we are on 0.70.A point moves us above Davis Legacy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Stanislaus Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Santa Rosa United – Stanislaus Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.73 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Win 0.91 PPG |
9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 | 10th— holds |
| Draw 0.73 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Loss 0.64 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th 1%
- 8th 3%
- 9th 10%
- 10th 40%
- 11th 43%
- 12th 3%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 1.95 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bay Area Surf | 2.71 (+2.01) | 3rd (2.33) | 53 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | MVLA | 2.40 (+1.70) | 2nd (2.50) | 46 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Mustang SC | 2.40 (+1.70) | 1st (2.53) | 46 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | COSC | 2.00 (+1.30) | 4th (1.83) | 37 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 5 | Placer United | 2.00 (+1.30) | 6th (1.72) | 37 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 6 | San Juan SC | 1.60 (+0.90) | 5th (1.76) | 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 7 | Force | 1.11 (+0.41) | 9th (0.91) | 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 8 | Marin FC | 0.91 (+0.21) | 8th (0.98) | 14 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 9 | Davis Legacy | 0.89 (+0.19) | 7th (1.11) | A point next game |
How the results connect
86 chains · 12 teams
Paths of results that link Santa Rosa United to Stanislaus Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.06 · 6th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Stanislaus Surf 11th · 1-0-9 · GD -26 |
Home Trione Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.23 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
COSC 4th · 6-2-2 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Clovis East Highschool |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–3 | 0.16 | 0.70 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
San Juan SC 6th · 5-1-4 · GD +15 |
Home Trione Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–4 | 0.18 | 0.66 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 05:00 PM |
Pleasanton RAGE 12th · 1-0-9 · GD -40 |
Away far trip
Stanford Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 0.73 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Bay Area Surf 1st · 6-1-0 · GD +16 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.12 | 0.69 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Placer United 5th · 6-2-2 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.39 | 0.67 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Davis Legacy 9th · 2-2-5 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.57 | 0.66 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Mustang SC 3rd · 7-3-0 · GD +39 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–6 | 0.01 | 0.63 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
MVLA 2nd · 7-3-0 · GD +41 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–6 | 0.03 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Marin FC 8th · 2-4-5 · GD -10 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–1 | 0.86 | 0.61 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Force 7th · 3-1-5 · GD -16 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.94 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 10:00 AM |
Stanislaus Surf 11th · 1-0-9 · GD -26 |
Away far trip
Mary Grogan Community Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.97 | 0.64 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Bay Area Surf | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 19 | 2.71 | DWWWW | +0.00 | -0.17 | 99% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MVLA · Sun Oct 25 at Pleasanton RAGE · Sat Oct 31 vs Mustang SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | MVLA | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 49 | 8 | +41 | 24 | 2.40 | DWWWD | -0.45 | -0.36 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Stanislaus Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Marin FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mustang SC | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 45 | 6 | +39 | 24 | 2.40 | WWWWW | -0.42 | -0.43 | 100% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs Davis Legacy · Sat Oct 31 at Bay Area Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | COSC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 20 | 2.00 | DDWWL | -0.26 | +0.19 | 44% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Rosa United · Sat Oct 31 at Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Placer United | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 20 | 2.00 | LWLDW | -0.11 | +0.12 | 23% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Juan SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Davis Legacy · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanislaus Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | San Juan SC | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 15 | +15 | 16 | 1.60 | WDLLW | +0.03 | -0.10 | 34% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davis Legacy · Sun Oct 25 vs Placer United · Sat Oct 31 at Santa Rosa United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Force | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 22 | -16 | 10 | 1.11 | LLWWW | -0.14 | +0.20 | 0% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Marin FC · Sat Oct 31 vs COSC · Sat Nov 7 at MVLA See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Marin FC | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 10 | 0.91 | DWDLL | +0.05 | +0.07 | 0% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Force · Sat Oct 31 vs MVLA · Sat Nov 7 at Mustang SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Davis Legacy | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 8 | 0.89 | WLDLL | +0.00 | +0.02 | 0% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 31 at Placer United See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Santa Rosa United | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 39 | -32 | 7 | 0.70 | WLLDL | +0.37 | +0.06 | 0% | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 25 at COSC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Juan SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Stanislaus Surf | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 35 | -26 | 3 | 0.30 | LLLLW | +0.35 | -0.03 | 0% | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Santa Rosa United · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sat Oct 31 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Pleasanton RAGE | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 45 | -40 | 3 | 0.30 | LLLLL | +0.20 | +0.39 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Bay Area Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Stanislaus Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Santa Rosa United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.