Pleasanton RAGE

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Val Vista, Field 2 ↗

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.2 for, 0.8 against · 2.27 expected points)

Common opponents: San Juan SC — we 1–6; they 1–9. Stanislaus Surf — we 3–0; they 0–3. Santa Rosa United — we 0–3; they 0–4. Marin FC — we 1–5; they 0–1. Placer United — we 1–1; they 0–5. COSC — we 1–4; they 0–3. MVLA — we 0–3; they 0–8. Mustang SC — we 0–0; they 0–3.

• They struggle to score
  Force average 0.1 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 7 of 8.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Force concede 4.5/game; worst result 0–8 vs MVLA.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 at Davis Legacy, 0–3 at Santa Rosa United, 0–3 at MVLA, 0–0 vs Mustang SC.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 69% / draw 18% / loss 12%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Confidence is low on their side
  Force have lost 8 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  COSC sit 10th on 0.60 PPG; we are on 0.56.

  A point moves us above COSC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Force game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pleasanton RAGE – Force) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th 1%
8. 8th 3%
9. 9th 10%
10. 10th 23%
11. 11th 61%
12. 12th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).