MVLA

ECNL Girls · Northern Cal GU14 · 12 teams · MVLA (all teams)

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4th

7-1-2 record · 10 played

2.20 points per game

+19 goal diff · 31–12

WWLWDlast 5

95% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0

-0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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MVLA
4th · 2.20 PPG

Bay Area Surf
3rd · 2.29 PPG

Valley Christian High School, Field 1 ↗ far trip

46% 19% 36%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.2 against · 1.56 expected points)

Season so far	MVLA	Bay Area Surf
Position	4th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	7-1-2	5-1-1
Points per game	2.20	2.29
Goals for / game	3.1	3.1
Goals against / game	1.2	1.9
Clean sheets	3	2
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	D W L W W	W W W L D
Biggest win	8–0 at Force	5–1 at Marin FC
Worst loss	1–3 at San Juan SC	0–7 at San Juan SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.37	+0.98
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.24	+0.17

Common opponents: Stanislaus Surf — we 3–1; they 4–0. Davis Legacy — we 3–0; they 5–1. Mustang SC — we 1–2; they 2–2. Marin FC — we 4–1; they 5–1. COSC — we 4–2; they 3–0. Santa Rosa United — we 2–1; they 3–2. San Juan SC — we 1–3; they 0–7.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Bay Area Surf score 3.1/game — well above the league's 1.9.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 19% / loss 36%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
They arrive in form
Bay Area Surf have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Valley Christian High School.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Bay Area Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MVLA – Bay Area Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.09 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 2.27 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1
Draw 2.09 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 2.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st

95% top 4

5% below the top 4

3.0 average finish

1st 3%
2nd 29%
3rd 39%
4th 24%
5th 4%
6th <1%
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.62 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	San Juan SC	2.70 (+0.50)	1st (2.61)	35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2	Mustang SC	2.30 (+0.10)	2nd (2.26)	27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3	Bay Area Surf	2.29 (+0.09)	4th (2.06)	27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection

How the results connect

62 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link MVLA to Bay Area Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

25 favour us

4 even

33 favour them

+0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.17 · 9th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM	Bay Area Surf 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +9	Away far trip Valley Christian High School	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	2–2	1.56	2.14	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 01:30 PM	Stanislaus Surf 8th · 3-2-5 · GD -13	Away far trip Mary Grogan Community Park	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	2–0	2.43	2.17	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM	Marin FC 7th · 4-2-4 · GD -11	Away far trip Terra Linda High School · turf?	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	3–1	2.41	2.18	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 10:30 AM	Force 12th · 0-0-8 · GD -35	Home Graham Middle School · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	5–0	2.96	2.24	Bank it
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Davis Legacy 9th · 2-0-7 · GD -7	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	3–1	2.54	2.26	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 TBD	COSC 10th · 2-0-8 · GD -10	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–1	2.58	2.28	Bank it
Sat Apr 17 TBD	San Juan SC 1st · 9-0-1 · GD +40	Home	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–2	0.99	2.20	Upside
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Santa Rosa United 5th · 5-2-3 · GD +4	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.68	2.17	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Pleasanton RAGE 11th · 1-2-6 · GD -18	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	3–0	2.61	2.20	Bank it
Sat May 1 TBD	Placer United 6th · 3-4-2 · GD +5	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	2–1	2.01	2.19	Swing game
Sat May 8 TBD	Bay Area Surf 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +9	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.87	2.17	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

San Juan SC

+40

2.70

WWWLW

-0.23

-0.31

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Marin FC (7th)	7–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mustang SC (2nd)	3–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	MVLA (4th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	COSC (10th)	6–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Force (12th)	9–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Santa Rosa United (5th)	4–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	6–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Placer United (6th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davis Legacy · Sun Oct 25 vs Placer United · Sat Oct 31 at Santa Rosa United See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Davis Legacy (9th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Placer United (6th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Santa Rosa United (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	3–2	68%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Force (12th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	MVLA (4th)	2–2	56%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	COSC (10th)	5–1	95%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Mustang SC (2nd)	2–1	52%
·	Sat May 1	at	Marin FC (7th)	4–1	91%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Davis Legacy (9th)	5–1	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mustang SC

+17

2.30

WWLWD

-0.05

-0.33

99%

2.5

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	San Juan SC (1st)	4–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Santa Rosa United (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Placer United (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Marin FC (7th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	MVLA (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Force (12th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Davis Legacy (9th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs Davis Legacy · Sat Oct 31 at Bay Area Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	COSC (10th)	3–0	81%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Davis Legacy (9th)	3–0	79%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Marin FC (7th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Force (12th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Placer United (6th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Santa Rosa United (5th)	1–0	56%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	1–2	29%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat May 8	at	COSC (10th)	2–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bay Area Surf

2.29

DLWWW

+0.17

-0.25

89%

3.6

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	COSC (10th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Davis Legacy (9th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	San Juan SC (1st)	0–7
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Mustang SC (2nd)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Santa Rosa United (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Marin FC (7th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MVLA · Sun Oct 25 at Pleasanton RAGE · Sat Oct 31 vs Mustang SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	MVLA (4th)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Mustang SC (2nd)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	2–3	18%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Placer United (6th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Santa Rosa United (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Marin FC (7th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Placer United (6th)	2–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Force (12th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Davis Legacy (9th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat May 1	at	COSC (10th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat May 8	at	MVLA (4th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat May 15	at	Force (12th)	4–0	96%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MVLA

+19

2.20

WWLWD

-0.24

-0.17

95%

3.0

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Placer United (6th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	San Juan SC (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Santa Rosa United (5th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	COSC (10th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Force (12th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Marin FC (7th)	4–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Mustang SC (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Davis Legacy (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Stanislaus Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Marin FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Marin FC (7th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Force (12th)	5–0	98%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Davis Legacy (9th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	COSC (10th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Santa Rosa United (5th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Placer United (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Santa Rosa United

1.70

WLWDW

-0.03

-0.12

12%

5.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Force (12th)	4–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Marin FC (7th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Mustang SC (2nd)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	MVLA (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Davis Legacy (9th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	San Juan SC (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	2–3
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Placer United (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	COSC (10th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 25 at COSC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Juan SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–0	64%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	COSC (10th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Placer United (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Davis Legacy (9th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Mustang SC (2nd)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	MVLA (4th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–0	63%
·	Sat May 1	at	Force (12th)	2–0	85%
·	Sat May 8	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–0	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Placer United

1.44

DLDWD

-0.08

-0.03

5.7

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	MVLA (4th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	COSC (10th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mustang SC (2nd)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Davis Legacy (9th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Force (12th)	5–0
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Santa Rosa United (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Marin FC · Sun Oct 25 at San Juan SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Davis Legacy See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Marin FC (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	San Juan SC (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Davis Legacy (9th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Force (12th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Santa Rosa United (5th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Mustang SC (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	1–2	36%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	2–0	67%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	COSC (10th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat May 1	at	MVLA (4th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Marin FC

-11

1.40

WWDDL

+0.11

+0.08

7.5

L	Sat Oct 17	at	San Juan SC (1st)	0–7
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Santa Rosa United (5th)	0–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Davis Legacy (9th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mustang SC (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	MVLA (4th)	1–4
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	COSC (10th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	1–5
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Force (12th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Placer United · Sun Oct 25 vs Force · Sat Oct 31 vs MVLA See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Placer United (6th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Force (12th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	MVLA (4th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mustang SC (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	COSC (10th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Davis Legacy (9th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Santa Rosa United (5th)	0–2	16%
·	Sat May 1	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	1–4	3%
·	Sat May 8	at	Placer United (6th)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stanislaus Surf

-13

1.10

LLDWW

-0.04

+0.09

8.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Davis Legacy (9th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Force (12th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Marin FC (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Mustang SC (2nd)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Placer United (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	San Juan SC (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	COSC (10th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 22	at	MVLA (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Santa Rosa United · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sat Oct 31 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Santa Rosa United (5th)	0–1	14%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	MVLA (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Placer United (6th)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	COSC (10th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Marin FC (7th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Mustang SC (2nd)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Force (12th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Davis Legacy (9th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Santa Rosa United (5th)	0–1	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Davis Legacy

-7

0.67

WLLLL

+0.02

+0.03

9.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Marin FC (7th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Santa Rosa United (5th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	COSC (10th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Placer United (6th)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	3–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	MVLA (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mustang SC (2nd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 31 at Placer United See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mustang SC (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Placer United (6th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	COSC (10th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Force (12th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	MVLA (4th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Santa Rosa United (5th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Force (12th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat May 1	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat May 8	at	San Juan SC (1st)	1–5	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

COSC

-10

0.60

LLWLL

-0.02

+0.15

9.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Placer United (6th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	2–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	MVLA (4th)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Davis Legacy (9th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Force (12th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Marin FC (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Santa Rosa United (5th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Rosa United · Sat Oct 31 at Force See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Mustang SC (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Santa Rosa United (5th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Force (12th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Davis Legacy (9th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Marin FC (7th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	MVLA (4th)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	San Juan SC (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Placer United (6th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	1–3	16%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Mustang SC (2nd)	1–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pleasanton RAGE

-18

0.56

LDLLD

+0.35

-0.06

10.4

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mustang SC (2nd)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	MVLA (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	COSC (10th)	1–4
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Placer United (6th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Marin FC (7th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Santa Rosa United (5th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Davis Legacy (9th)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Force · Sun Oct 25 vs Bay Area Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Stanislaus Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Force (12th)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Santa Rosa United (5th)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Davis Legacy (9th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	San Juan SC (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Marin FC (7th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	COSC (10th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Placer United (6th)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	MVLA (4th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat May 1	at	Mustang SC (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat May 8	at	Force (12th)	1–0	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force

-35

0.00

LLLLL

+0.48

+0.12

12.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Santa Rosa United (5th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	San Juan SC (1st)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	MVLA (4th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 12	at	COSC (10th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Placer United (6th)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Mustang SC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Marin FC (7th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pleasanton RAGE · Sun Oct 25 at Marin FC · Sat Oct 31 vs COSC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Marin FC (7th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	COSC (10th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MVLA (4th)	0–5	0%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Davis Legacy (9th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Placer United (6th)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Mustang SC (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Davis Legacy (9th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Santa Rosa United (5th)	0–2	4%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	0–1	17%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Bay Area Surf (3rd)	0–4	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.