Preview · Saturday, May 8, TBD
MVLA vs Bay Area Surf
Forecast
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 home, 1.9 away)
| Season so far | MVLA | Bay Area Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-1-2 | 5-1-1 |
| Points per game | 2.20 | 2.29 |
| Goals for / game | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D W L W W | W W W L D |
| Biggest win | 8–0 at Force | 5–1 at Marin FC |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at San Juan SC | 0–7 at San Juan SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.37 | +0.98 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.24 | +0.17 |
Common opponents: Stanislaus Surf — MVLA 3–1; Bay Area Surf 4–0. Davis Legacy — MVLA 3–0; Bay Area Surf 5–1. Mustang SC — MVLA 1–2; Bay Area Surf 2–2. Marin FC — MVLA 4–1; Bay Area Surf 5–1. COSC — MVLA 4–2; Bay Area Surf 3–0. Santa Rosa United — MVLA 2–1; Bay Area Surf 3–2. San Juan SC — MVLA 1–3; Bay Area Surf 0–7.
What's at stake
| MVLA | Bay Area Surf | |
|---|---|---|
| Position now | 4th | 3rd |
| Games left | 11 | 15 |
| Chance of top 4 | 97% | 89% |
| Chance of 1st | 3% | 1% |
| Average finish | 2.9 | 3.6 |
How the results connect
62 chains
25 favour MVLA, 33 favour Bay Area Surf, 4 even; average margin +0.1 goals toward MVLA.
- 0MVLA beat Santa Rosa United 2–1 → Santa Rosa United lost to Bay Area Surf 2–3
- -1MVLA beat COSC 4–2 → COSC lost to Bay Area Surf 0–3
- -1MVLA beat Marin FC 4–1 → Marin FC lost to Bay Area Surf 1–5
- -1MVLA lost to Mustang SC 1–2 → Mustang SC drew with Bay Area Surf 2–2
- -1MVLA beat Davis Legacy 3–0 → Davis Legacy lost to Bay Area Surf 1–5
- -2MVLA beat Stanislaus Surf 3–1 → Stanislaus Surf lost to Bay Area Surf 0–4
Full picture: MVLA · Bay Area Surf · Northern Cal GU14 standings