Stanislaus Surf

ECNL Girls · Northern Cal GU18/19 · 12 teams · Stanislaus Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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9th

2-2-6 record · 10 played

0.80 points per game

-20 goal diff · 7–27

DWLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.6

+0.49 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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Stanislaus Surf
9th · 0.80 PPG

Santa Rosa United
12th · 0.10 PPG

Trione Fields, Trione East ↗ far trip

59% 20% 20%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.2 against · 1.98 expected points)

Season so far	Stanislaus Surf	Santa Rosa United
Position	9th	12th
Record (W-D-L)	2-2-6	0-1-9
Points per game	0.80	0.10
Goals for / game	0.7	0.5
Goals against / game	2.7	4.9
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	5	6
Form (recent first)	L L L W D	L L L L L
Biggest win	3–1 vs Placer United	—
Worst loss	0–9 at San Juan SC	1–11 at San Juan SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.29	-3.12
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.49	+0.54

Common opponents: MVLA — we 0–3; they 0–5. COSC — we 1–1; they 2–3. San Juan SC — we 0–9; they 1–11. Pleasanton RAGE — we 0–4; they 1–1. Placer United — we 3–1; they 0–1. Bay Area Surf — we 1–1; they 0–3. Mustang SC — we 1–0; they 1–7. Marin FC — we 0–2; they 0–4. Force — we 0–3; they 0–5. Davis Legacy — we 1–3; they 0–9.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Santa Rosa United average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 6 of 10.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Santa Rosa United concede 4.9/game; worst result 1–11 at San Juan SC.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–3 at MVLA, 0–9 at San Juan SC, 0–4 at Pleasanton RAGE, 0–2 vs Marin FC, 0–3 at Force.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 20% / loss 20%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Confidence is low on their side
Santa Rosa United have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Trione Fields.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Santa Rosa United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Stanislaus Surf – Santa Rosa United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.00 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	10th▼ down 1
Win 1.00 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	10th▼ down 1
Draw 0.82 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	11th▼ down 2
Loss 0.73 PPG	9th— holds	10th▼ down 1	11th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

9.6 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th 1%
7th 2%
8th 8%
9th 24%
10th 60%
11th 5%
12th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	MVLA	2.80 (+2.00)	1st (2.53)	54 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Bay Area Surf	2.71 (+1.91)	3rd (2.26)	52 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Force	2.50 (+1.70)	2nd (2.35)	47 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	San Juan SC	2.20 (+1.40)	4th (2.15)	41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Davis Legacy	1.89 (+1.09)	5th (1.74)	34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
6	Pleasanton RAGE	1.44 (+0.64)	7th (1.23)	24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
7	Marin FC	1.30 (+0.50)	6th (1.32)	21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8	Placer United	1.11 (+0.31)	8th (1.06)	17 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

82 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Stanislaus Surf to Santa Rosa United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

55 favour us

7 even

20 favour them

+2.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 11th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	Santa Rosa United 12th · 0-1-9 · GD -44	Away far trip Trione Fields	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.98	0.91	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 09:30 AM	MVLA 1st · 9-1-0 · GD +28	Home Mary Grogan Community Park	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–3	0.16	0.84	Upside
Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM	Pleasanton RAGE 6th · 4-1-4 · GD -2	Home Thomas Downey High School	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–1	0.93	0.85	Upside
Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM	Placer United 8th · 3-1-5 · GD -6	Away far trip Placer Valley Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	21%	0–1	0.89	0.85	Upside
Sat Mar 20 09:00 AM	San Juan SC 4th · 7-1-2 · GD +28	Home Thomas Downey High School	●●●●● Very tough	4%	0–3	0.18	0.81	Upside
Sun Mar 21 09:00 AM	COSC 11th · 1-1-8 · GD -32	Home Mary Grogan Community Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–1	1.77	0.87	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM	Bay Area Surf 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +18	Home Thomas Downey High School	●●●●● Very tough	5%	0–3	0.24	0.83	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Marin FC 7th · 4-1-5 · GD -2	Away	●●●●● Very tough	15%	0–2	0.64	0.82	Upside
Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM	Mustang SC 10th · 2-0-8 · GD -7	Home Mary Grogan Community Park	●●●●● Very tough	25%	1–1	0.97	0.83	Upside
Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM	Force 3rd · 6-2-0 · GD +25	Home Thomas Downey High School	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–3	0.16	0.80	Upside
Sat May 1 09:00 AM	Davis Legacy 5th · 5-2-2 · GD +14	Home Thomas Downey High School	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–2	0.41	0.78	Upside
Sat May 8 10:00 AM	Santa Rosa United 12th · 0-1-9 · GD -44	Home Mary Grogan Community Park	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–1	2.22	0.84	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

MVLA

+28

2.80

WWWWW

-0.32

+0.03

100%

1.5

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Placer United (8th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Mustang SC (10th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	San Juan SC (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	COSC (11th)	6–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Force (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Marin FC (7th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Stanislaus Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Marin FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Marin FC (7th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Force (3rd)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	COSC (11th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	San Juan SC (4th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	5–0	99%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Placer United (8th)	2–0	85%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	1–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bay Area Surf

+18

2.71

WWDWW

-0.62

+0.14

98%

2.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	COSC (11th)	8–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	San Juan SC (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Mustang SC (10th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Marin FC (7th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MVLA · Sun Oct 25 at Pleasanton RAGE · Sat Oct 31 vs Mustang SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	MVLA (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	2–0	69%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Mustang SC (10th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	San Juan SC (4th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Placer United (8th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Placer United (8th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Force (3rd)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat May 1	at	COSC (11th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat May 8	at	MVLA (1st)	1–1	24%
·	Sat May 15	at	Force (3rd)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force

+25

2.50

WDDWW

-0.54

+0.04

99%

2.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	San Juan SC (4th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	MVLA (1st)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	COSC (11th)	5–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Placer United (8th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Mustang SC (10th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Marin FC (7th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pleasanton RAGE · Sun Oct 25 at Marin FC · Sat Oct 31 vs COSC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Marin FC (7th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	COSC (11th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MVLA (1st)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Placer United (8th)	2–0	79%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Mustang SC (10th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	San Juan SC (4th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	6–0	99%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	1–1	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Juan SC

+28

2.20

DWLWW

-0.21

-0.05

95%

3.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mustang SC (10th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	MVLA (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	COSC (11th)	6–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Force (3rd)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	11–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	9–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Placer United (8th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davis Legacy · Sun Oct 25 vs Placer United · Sat Oct 31 at Santa Rosa United See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Placer United (8th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	6–0	99%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Force (3rd)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	MVLA (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	COSC (11th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Mustang SC (10th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat May 1	at	Marin FC (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Davis Legacy

+14

1.89

WWDLW

-0.53

+0.26

5.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Marin FC (7th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	COSC (11th)	6–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Placer United (8th)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mustang SC (10th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 31 at Placer United See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Juan SC (4th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mustang SC (10th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Placer United (8th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	COSC (11th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Force (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	MVLA (1st)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Force (3rd)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat May 1	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat May 8	at	San Juan SC (4th)	1–2	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pleasanton RAGE

-2

1.44

WWWLL

-0.35

+0.33

7.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mustang SC (10th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	MVLA (1st)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	COSC (11th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Placer United (8th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	4–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	San Juan SC (4th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Force · Sun Oct 25 vs Bay Area Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Stanislaus Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Force (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	San Juan SC (4th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Marin FC (7th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	COSC (11th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Placer United (8th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sat May 1	at	Mustang SC (10th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat May 8	at	Force (3rd)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Marin FC

-2

1.30

LDWWL

+0.08

-0.00

6.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	San Juan SC (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mustang SC (10th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	MVLA (1st)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	COSC (11th)	4–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	2–4
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Force (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Placer United · Sun Oct 25 vs Force · Sat Oct 31 vs MVLA See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Placer United (8th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Force (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mustang SC (10th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	COSC (11th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–0	65%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat May 1	vs	San Juan SC (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat May 8	at	Placer United (8th)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Placer United

-6

1.11

LWLWL

-0.07

+0.18

8.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	MVLA (1st)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 3	at	COSC (11th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mustang SC (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Force (3rd)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	San Juan SC (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Marin FC · Sun Oct 25 at San Juan SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Davis Legacy See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Marin FC (7th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	San Juan SC (4th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–0	54%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Force (3rd)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Mustang SC (10th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	COSC (11th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat May 1	at	MVLA (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Marin FC (7th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stanislaus Surf

-20

0.80

DWLLL

+0.49

-0.12

9.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Force (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Marin FC (7th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Mustang SC (10th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Placer United (8th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	San Juan SC (4th)	0–9
D	Sat Aug 29	at	COSC (11th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	MVLA (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Santa Rosa United · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sat Oct 31 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Placer United (8th)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	San Juan SC (4th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	COSC (11th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Marin FC (7th)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Mustang SC (10th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Force (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	2–1	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mustang SC

-7

0.60

LWLLW

+0.28

-0.32

8.5

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 3	at	San Juan SC (4th)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	7–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Placer United (8th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Marin FC (7th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Force (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs Davis Legacy · Sat Oct 31 at Bay Area Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	COSC (11th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Marin FC (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Force (3rd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Placer United (8th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	San Juan SC (4th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat May 8	at	COSC (11th)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

COSC

-32

0.40

LLLLL

+0.40

+0.19

11.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	1–8
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Placer United (8th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	San Juan SC (4th)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	MVLA (1st)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Force (3rd)	0–5
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Marin FC (7th)	2–4
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Rosa United · Sat Oct 31 at Force See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Mustang SC (10th)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Force (3rd)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Marin FC (7th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	MVLA (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	San Juan SC (4th)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Placer United (8th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Mustang SC (10th)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Santa Rosa United

-44

0.10

LLLLL

+0.54

+0.18

11.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Force (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Marin FC (7th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Mustang SC (10th)	1–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	MVLA (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–9
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	San Juan SC (4th)	1–11
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Placer United (8th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	COSC (11th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 25 at COSC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Juan SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	COSC (11th)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Juan SC (4th)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Pleasanton RAGE (6th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Bay Area Surf (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Placer United (8th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Mustang SC (10th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–5	0%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Marin FC (7th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat May 1	at	Force (3rd)	0–6	0%
·	Sat May 8	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.