Mustang SC

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Provident Field @ MSC, Upper ↗

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.3 against · 2.38 expected points)

Common opponents: Davis Legacy — we 0–1; they 0–6. Force — we 0–3; they 0–5. Bay Area Surf — we 0–2; they 1–8. Marin FC — we 0–2; they 2–4. Placer United — we 1–3; they 0–1. Stanislaus Surf — we 0–1; they 1–1. Santa Rosa United — we 7–1; they 3–2. San Juan SC — we 2–3; they 1–6. MVLA — we 0–4; they 1–6. Pleasanton RAGE — we 3–0; they 2–4.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  COSC concede 4.3/game; worst result 1–8 at Bay Area Surf.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–1 at Davis Legacy, 0–3 vs Force, 0–2 vs Bay Area Surf, 0–2 at Marin FC, 0–1 vs Stanislaus Surf, 0–4 vs MVLA.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  COSC have lost 8 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• What a win does
  Stanislaus Surf sit 9th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.60.

  A point moves us above Stanislaus Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the COSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mustang SC – COSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th <1%
6. 6th 6%
7. 7th 14%
8. 8th 25%
9. 9th 30%
10. 10th 22%
11. 11th 2%
12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 1.86 PPG if we win out).