Bay Area Surf

ECNL Girls · Northern Cal GU16 · 12 teams · Bay Area Surf (all teams)

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5th

4-1-2 record · 7 played

1.86 points per game

+18 goal diff · 23–5

LDWWWlast 5

86% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.4

-0.53 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:50 PM

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Bay Area Surf
5th · 1.86 PPG

MVLA
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Evergreen Valley College, Soccer Stadium ↗ · turf?

40% 25% 34%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.3 against · 1.46 expected points)

Season so far	Bay Area Surf	MVLA
Position	5th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-2	8-1-1
Points per game	1.86	2.50
Goals for / game	3.3	2.6
Goals against / game	0.7	0.6
Clean sheets	4	6
Held scoreless	3	0
Form (recent first)	W W W D L	W W W W W
Biggest win	6–0 vs Stanislaus Surf	5–0 at COSC
Worst loss	0–2 at Marin FC	1–2 at Mustang SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.59	+1.43
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.53	-0.31

Common opponents: Marin FC — we 0–2; they 2–0. Santa Rosa United — we 5–0; they 5–1. Mustang SC — we 0–1; they 1–2. San Juan SC — we 0–0; they 4–2. Stanislaus Surf — we 6–0; they 2–0. Davis Legacy — we 6–2; they 1–1. COSC — we 6–0; they 5–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
MVLA score 2.6/game — well above the league's 1.7.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
MVLA concede only 0.6/game with 6 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 at Marin FC, 0–1 at Mustang SC, 0–0 at San Juan SC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 40%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
MVLA have won 7 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
What a win does
Davis Legacy sit 4th on 1.89 PPG; we are on 1.86.
A point moves us above Davis Legacy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the MVLA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Bay Area Surf – MVLA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.75 PPG	6th▼ down 1	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Win 2.00 PPG	4th▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 2	6th▼ down 1
Draw 1.75 PPG	6th▼ down 1	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Loss 1.63 PPG	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st

86% top 4

14% below the top 4

3.4 average finish

1st 2%
2nd 12%
3rd 50%
4th 23%
5th 9%
6th 4%
7th 1%
8th <1%
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Mustang SC	2.60 (+0.74)	1st (2.52)	45 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
2	MVLA	2.50 (+0.64)	2nd (2.33)	42 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
3	Pleasanton RAGE	2.11 (+0.25)	5th (1.76)	34 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4	Davis Legacy	1.89 (+0.03)	4th (1.85)	A point next game

How the results connect

61 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Bay Area Surf to MVLA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

32 favour us

3 even

26 favour them

+0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.06 · 6th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:50 PM	MVLA 2nd · 8-1-1 · GD +20	Home Evergreen Valley College · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.46	1.81	Upside
Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM	Pleasanton RAGE 3rd · 6-1-2 · GD +7	Away far trip Val Vista	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	1–1	1.83	1.81	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 10:55 AM	Mustang SC 1st · 8-2-0 · GD +23	Home Willow Glen High School · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.19	1.75	Upside
Sat Nov 7 02:05 PM	San Juan SC 8th · 3-3-4 · GD -1	Home Willow Glen High School · turf?	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	2–0	2.38	1.81	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 TBD	Placer United 9th · 2-3-4 · GD -5	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.47	1.86	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 TBD	Pleasanton RAGE 3rd · 6-1-2 · GD +7	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	2–0	2.06	1.88	Swing game
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Santa Rosa United 11th · 1-0-8 · GD -36	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	5–0	2.93	1.95	Bank it
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Marin FC 7th · 4-1-5 · GD +6	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	1.97	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 12:50 PM	Stanislaus Surf 10th · 1-1-8 · GD -25	Away far trip Thomas Downey High School	●○○○○ Favorable	91%	3–0	2.81	2.02	Bank it
Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM	Placer United 9th · 2-3-4 · GD -5	Away far trip Placer Valley Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	1–0	2.30	2.04	Bank it
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Force 6th · 4-1-2 · GD +8	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–1	2.06	2.04	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Davis Legacy 4th · 5-2-2 · GD +16	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	2–1	1.94	2.03	Swing game
Sat May 1 10:00 AM	COSC 12th · 1-0-9 · GD -31	Away far trip Edison High School Fields	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	4–0	2.89	2.08	Bank it
Sat May 8 TBD	MVLA 2nd · 8-1-1 · GD +20	Away	●●●●○ Tough	32%	1–1	1.22	2.03	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	Force 6th · 4-1-2 · GD +8	Away Kathleen MacDonald High School	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	2–1	1.80	2.02	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Mustang SC

+23

2.60

WWWDW

+0.01

-0.48

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	San Juan SC (8th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Santa Rosa United (11th)	10–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Placer United (9th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Marin FC (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	MVLA (2nd)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Force (6th)	2–0
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs Davis Legacy · Sat Oct 31 at Bay Area Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	COSC (12th)	5–0	98%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Force (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Placer United (9th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Santa Rosa United (11th)	6–0	99%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	3–0	93%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	1–0	67%
·	Sat May 8	at	COSC (12th)	4–0	96%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MVLA

+20

2.50

WWWWW

-0.31

-0.13

99%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Placer United (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	San Juan SC (8th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Santa Rosa United (11th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	COSC (12th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Force (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Mustang SC (1st)	1–2
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Stanislaus Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Marin FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Marin FC (7th)	1–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Force (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	COSC (12th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Santa Rosa United (11th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	1–0	52%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Placer United (9th)	1–0	74%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pleasanton RAGE

2.11

WDWLL

-0.25

+0.16

30%

5.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mustang SC (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	MVLA (2nd)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	COSC (12th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Placer United (9th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Santa Rosa United (11th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Force · Sun Oct 25 vs Bay Area Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Stanislaus Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Force (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Santa Rosa United (11th)	4–0	91%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–2	17%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	San Juan SC (8th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Marin FC (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	COSC (12th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Placer United (9th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–1	23%
·	Sat May 1	at	Mustang SC (1st)	0–1	12%
·	Sat May 8	at	Force (6th)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Davis Legacy

+16

1.89

WWWLW

-0.25

-0.02

53%

4.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Marin FC (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Santa Rosa United (11th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	COSC (12th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Placer United (9th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	2–3
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	MVLA (2nd)	1–1
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mustang SC (1st)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 31 at Placer United See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mustang SC (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Placer United (9th)	2–0	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	COSC (12th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Force (6th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Santa Rosa United (11th)	5–1	95%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Force (6th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat May 1	at	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat May 8	at	San Juan SC (8th)	2–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bay Area Surf

+18

1.86

LDWWW

-0.53

+0.06

86%

3.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	COSC (12th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	6–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	6–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	San Juan SC (8th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Mustang SC (1st)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Santa Rosa United (11th)	5–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Marin FC (7th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MVLA · Sun Oct 25 at Pleasanton RAGE · Sat Oct 31 vs Mustang SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	MVLA (2nd)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Mustang SC (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Placer United (9th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	2–0	62%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Santa Rosa United (11th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	3–0	91%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Placer United (9th)	1–0	70%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Force (6th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat May 1	at	COSC (12th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat May 8	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat May 15	at	Force (6th)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force

1.86

WWLWW

-0.19

-0.01

30%

5.2

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	San Juan SC (8th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	COSC (12th)	4–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Placer United (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Mustang SC (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Santa Rosa United · Sat Oct 24 at Pleasanton RAGE · Sun Oct 25 at Marin FC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Santa Rosa United (11th)	4–1	92%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Marin FC (7th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	COSC (12th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Placer United (9th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Mustang SC (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Santa Rosa United (11th)	5–0	95%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	1–1	46%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Marin FC

1.30

LLWWL

-0.01

-0.05

6.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	San Juan SC (8th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Santa Rosa United (11th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mustang SC (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	MVLA (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	COSC (12th)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	2–0
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Force (6th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Placer United · Sun Oct 25 vs Force · Sat Oct 31 vs MVLA See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Placer United (9th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Force (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	MVLA (2nd)	1–1	21%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mustang SC (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	COSC (12th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	2–0	84%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Santa Rosa United (11th)	3–1	87%
·	Sat May 1	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat May 8	at	Placer United (9th)	1–0	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Juan SC

-1

1.20

LLLDW

-0.03

+0.13

8.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Marin FC (7th)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mustang SC (1st)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	MVLA (2nd)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	COSC (12th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Force (6th)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Santa Rosa United (11th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	2–3
D	Sun Aug 23	at	Placer United (9th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davis Legacy · Sun Oct 25 vs Placer United · Sat Oct 31 at Santa Rosa United See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Placer United (9th)	1–0	46%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Santa Rosa United (11th)	2–1	76%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	1–0	65%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Force (6th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	MVLA (2nd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	COSC (12th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Mustang SC (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sat May 1	at	Marin FC (7th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Placer United

-5

1.00

DLDWL

-0.11

+0.21

8.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	COSC (12th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mustang SC (1st)	1–4
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Force (6th)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Santa Rosa United (11th)	4–0
D	Sun Aug 23	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Marin FC · Sun Oct 25 at San Juan SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Davis Legacy See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Marin FC (7th)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	San Juan SC (8th)	0–1	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Force (6th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Santa Rosa United (11th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Mustang SC (1st)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–1	10%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	COSC (12th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat May 1	at	MVLA (2nd)	0–1	7%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Marin FC (7th)	0–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stanislaus Surf

-25

0.40

LLLLL

+0.52

-0.07

10.4

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Force (6th)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Marin FC (7th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Mustang SC (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–6
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Placer United (9th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	San Juan SC (8th)	1–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	COSC (12th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	MVLA (2nd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Santa Rosa United · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sat Oct 31 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Santa Rosa United (11th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Placer United (9th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	0–1	14%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	COSC (12th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Marin FC (7th)	0–2	5%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Mustang SC (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Force (6th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Santa Rosa United (11th)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Santa Rosa United

-36

0.33

LLLLL

+0.50

+0.16

11.2

L	Sat Oct 3	at	Marin FC (7th)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Mustang SC (1st)	1–10
L	Sat Sep 26	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	San Juan SC (8th)	0–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Placer United (9th)	0–4
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	COSC (12th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Force · Sat Oct 24 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 25 at COSC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Force (6th)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	COSC (12th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	1–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Placer United (9th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Mustang SC (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Marin FC (7th)	1–3	5%
·	Sat May 1	at	Force (6th)	0–5	1%
·	Sat May 8	at	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

COSC

-31

0.30

LWLLL

+0.16

+0.36

11.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Placer United (9th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Force (6th)	2–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Marin FC (7th)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Santa Rosa United (11th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Rosa United · Sat Oct 31 at Force See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Mustang SC (1st)	0–5	0%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Santa Rosa United (11th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Force (6th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Marin FC (7th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Stanislaus Surf (10th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	MVLA (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (3rd)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	San Juan SC (8th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Placer United (9th)	0–1	14%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–4	1%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Mustang SC (1st)	0–4	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.