Preview · Saturday, May 8, TBD
MVLA vs Bay Area Surf
Forecast
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 home, 1.3 away)
| Season so far | MVLA | Bay Area Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 8-1-1 | 4-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 1.86 |
| Goals for / game | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W W W D L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at COSC | 6–0 vs Stanislaus Surf |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Mustang SC | 0–2 at Marin FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.43 | +1.59 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.31 | -0.53 |
Common opponents: Stanislaus Surf — MVLA 2–0; Bay Area Surf 6–0. Davis Legacy — MVLA 1–1; Bay Area Surf 6–2. Mustang SC — MVLA 1–2; Bay Area Surf 0–1. Marin FC — MVLA 2–0; Bay Area Surf 0–2. COSC — MVLA 5–0; Bay Area Surf 6–0. Santa Rosa United — MVLA 5–1; Bay Area Surf 5–0. San Juan SC — MVLA 4–2; Bay Area Surf 0–0.
What's at stake
| MVLA | Bay Area Surf | |
|---|---|---|
| Position now | 2nd | 5th |
| Games left | 11 | 15 |
| Chance of top 4 | 99% | 85% |
| Chance of 1st | 18% | 2% |
| Average finish | 2.0 | 3.5 |
How the results connect
61 chains
26 favour MVLA, 32 favour Bay Area Surf, 3 even; average margin -0.3 goals toward MVLA.
- 0MVLA lost to Mustang SC 1–2 → Mustang SC beat Bay Area Surf 1–0
- -1MVLA beat Santa Rosa United 5–1 → Santa Rosa United lost to Bay Area Surf 0–5
- -1MVLA beat COSC 5–0 → COSC lost to Bay Area Surf 0–6
- +2MVLA beat San Juan SC 4–2 → San Juan SC drew with Bay Area Surf 0–0
- +4MVLA beat Marin FC 2–0 → Marin FC beat Bay Area Surf 2–0
- -4MVLA drew with Davis Legacy 1–1 → Davis Legacy lost to Bay Area Surf 2–6
Full picture: MVLA · Bay Area Surf · Northern Cal GU16 standings