TableChase Clubs

San Diego Surf

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU18/19 · 17 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.
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1st
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+13 goal diff · 17–4
WWWWlast 4
98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.6
-0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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San Diego Surf
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Eagles SC
9th · 1.33 PPG

Pleasant Valley Fields, Field 14 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.6 against · 2.22 expected points)

Season so farSan Diego SurfEagles SC
Position1st9th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-01-1-1
Points per game3.001.33
Goals for / game4.32.3
Goals against / game1.02.0
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W WL W D
Biggest win8–1 at Sporting California USA3–1 vs Pateadores Soccer Club
Worst loss—2–3 at LAFC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.73-0.04
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.43-0.81

Common opponents: Pateadores Soccer Club — we 1–0; they 3–1. LAFC — we 3–0; they 2–3.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 69% / draw 15% / loss 16%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Pleasant Valley Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eagles SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Eagles SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.40 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

64% finish 1st
98% top 4
2% below the top 4
1.6 average finish
  1. 1st 64%
  2. 2nd 22%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

4 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Eagles SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 favour them
+4.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 1–3 3–0 3–2 8–1 2–2 2–2 5–3 7–1 San Diego Surf 1st Pateadores Soccer C… 15th LAFC 11th Sporting California… 12th Utah Royals FC AZ 5th Legends FC 10th Eagles SC 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 9th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Eagles SC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
3–1 2.22 2.84 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Rebels SC
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–1 2.81 2.84 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.64 2.67 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
03:00 PM
Blues
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -2
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.52 2.65 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +2
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.06 2.58 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -7
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
2–0 2.55 2.58 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +5
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
1–1 1.85 2.51 Swing game
Sun Mar 28
08:30 AM
Slammers FC HB Koge
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Away far trip
Saddleback College · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.94 2.47 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM
Legends FC
10th · 1-2-1 · GD -5
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.70 2.48 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
SLAMMERS FC
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–1 2.62 2.49 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
LV Heat Surf
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +8
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.02 2.46 Swing game
Sat May 8
01:00 PM
LA Breakers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–1 2.13 2.44 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 4400 174+13 123.00 WWWW -0.43 -0.02 98% 1.6
2 Legends FC Del Mar 3300 91+8 93.00 WWW -0.44 +0.02 88% 2.6
3 Beach Futbol Club 4310 72+5 102.50 WWWD -0.21 +0.18 48% 4.7
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 4301 106+4 92.25 WWWL -0.65 +0.19 24% 6.1
5 Utah Royals FC AZ 5311 179+8 102.00 LDWWW +0.04 -0.07 61% 4.2
6 LV Heat Surf 5311 168+8 102.00 DWLWW -0.19 -0.01 49% 4.7
7 Arizona Arsenal 5302 119+2 91.80 WLWWL -0.16 +0.04 15% 6.7
8 LA Breakers FC 4211 1110+1 71.75 DLWW +0.28 -0.12 16% 6.7
9 Eagles SC 3111 76+1 41.33 DWL -0.81 +0.18 2% 9.7
10 Legends FC 4121 611-5 51.25 DWLD -0.16 +0.10 0% 11.9
11 LAFC 5203 614-8 61.20 LWLWL +0.51 -0.16 0% 11.4
12 Sporting California USA 4112 512-7 41.00 WLLD +0.21 -0.06 0% 12.5
13 SLAMMERS FC 5023 713-6 20.40 DLLLD +0.80 -0.33 0% 12.0
14 Blues 2002 02-2 00.00 LL -0.85 +0.15 0% 13.2
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4004 310-7 00.00 LLLL +0.62 -0.13 0% 14.3
16 Phoenix Rising FC 4004 18-7 00.00 LLLL +0.32 -0.05 0% 15.4
17 Rebels SC 3003 311-8 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.05 0% 15.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.