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Phoenix Rising FC

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU18/19 · 17 teams · Phoenix Rising FC (all teams)

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16th
0-0-4 record · 4 played
0.00 points per game
-7 goal diff · 1–8
LLLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.4
+0.32 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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Phoenix Rising FC
16th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Legends FC Del Mar
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Santos Soccer Complex, Field 5 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.6 for, 2.2 against · 0.46 expected points)

Season so farPhoenix Rising FCLegends FC Del Mar
Position16th2nd
Record (W-D-L)0-0-43-0-0
Points per game0.003.00
Goals for / game0.33.0
Goals against / game2.00.3
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)L L L LW W W
Biggest win—4–1 at Rebels SC
Worst loss0–3 vs Utah Royals FC AZ—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.91+1.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.32-0.44

Common opponents: Arizona Arsenal — we 1–3; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Legends FC Del Mar score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Legends FC Del Mar concede only 0.3/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 vs LV Heat Surf, 0–3 vs Utah Royals FC AZ, 0–1 vs LAFC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 9%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Legends FC Del Mar have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Pateadores Soccer Club sit 15th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Pateadores Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC Del Mar game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Phoenix Rising FC – Legends FC Del Mar) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
17th▼ down 1 17th▼ down 1 17th▼ down 1
Win
0.60 PPG
13th▲ up 3 13th▲ up 3 17th▼ down 1
Draw
0.20 PPG
14th▲ up 2 14th▲ up 2 17th▼ down 1
Loss
0.00 PPG
17th▼ down 1 16th— holds 17th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we fall to at least 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 7%
  14. 14th 9%
  15. 15th 16%
  16. 16th 25%
  17. 17th 36%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.44) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Legends FC Del Mar 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.23) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
3 Beach Futbol Club 2.50 (+2.50) 4th (1.92) 40 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.25 (+2.25) 6th (1.73) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 Utah Royals FC AZ 2.00 (+2.00) 3rd (1.97) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 LV Heat Surf 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.90) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
7 Arizona Arsenal 1.80 (+1.80) 7th (1.67) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 LA Breakers FC 1.75 (+1.75) 8th (1.66) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
9 Eagles SC 1.33 (+1.33) 9th (1.29) 22 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 Legends FC 1.25 (+1.25) 11th (1.06) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
11 LAFC 1.20 (+1.20) 10th (1.11) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
12 Sporting California USA 1.00 (+1.00) 13th (0.97) 16 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
13 SLAMMERS FC 0.40 (+0.40) 12th (1.04) A point next game
14 Blues 0.00 (+0.00) 14th (0.89) Already ahead
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 0.00 (+0.00) 15th (0.76) Already ahead

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Phoenix Rising FC to Legends FC Del Mar through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
5 favour them
-3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 0–3 0–1 3–1 0–2 5–3 3–1 1–4 0–3 2–2 Phoenix Rising FC 16th Arizona Arsenal 7th LV Heat Surf 6th Utah Royals FC AZ 5th SLAMMERS FC 13th Rebels SC 17th Legends FC Del Mar 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 10th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
08:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8
Home
Santos Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–2 0.46 0.09 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Sporting California USA
12th · 1-1-2 · GD -7
Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.08 0.26 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
Eagles SC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●●●●● Very tough
17%
0–2 0.69 0.32 Upside
Sun Nov 22
TBD
San Diego Surf
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13
Home
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–2 0.33 0.32 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Blues
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -2
Away
●●●●● Very tough
24%
0–1 1.02 0.40 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
15th · 0-0-4 · GD -7
Away
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.12 0.47 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Beach Futbol Club
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–1 0.50 0.47 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–1 0.90 0.51 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Legends FC
10th · 1-2-1 · GD -5
Away
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–1 1.00 0.55 Upside
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM
LA Breakers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.56 0.55 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 PM
Rebels SC
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Home
PRFC Youth Soccer Facility
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.44 0.61 Upside
Sat May 8
10:00 AM
Slammers FC HB Koge
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Home
PRFC Youth Soccer Facility
●●●●● Very tough
17%
0–1 0.73 0.62 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 4400 174+13 123.00 WWWW -0.43 -0.02 98% 1.5
2 Legends FC Del Mar 3300 91+8 93.00 WWW -0.44 +0.02 89% 2.6
3 Beach Futbol Club 4310 72+5 102.50 WWWD -0.21 +0.18 48% 4.7
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 4301 106+4 92.25 WWWL -0.65 +0.19 23% 6.2
5 Utah Royals FC AZ 5311 179+8 102.00 LDWWW +0.04 -0.07 61% 4.3
6 LV Heat Surf 5311 168+8 102.00 DWLWW -0.19 -0.01 49% 4.7
7 Arizona Arsenal 5302 119+2 91.80 WLWWL -0.16 +0.04 16% 6.7
8 LA Breakers FC 4211 1110+1 71.75 DLWW +0.28 -0.12 15% 6.8
9 Eagles SC 3111 76+1 41.33 DWL -0.81 +0.18 2% 9.6
10 Legends FC 4121 611-5 51.25 DWLD -0.16 +0.10 0% 12.0
11 LAFC 5203 614-8 61.20 LWLWL +0.51 -0.16 0% 11.5
12 Sporting California USA 4112 512-7 41.00 WLLD +0.21 -0.06 0% 12.7
13 SLAMMERS FC 5023 713-6 20.40 DLLLD +0.80 -0.33 0% 11.9
14 Blues 2002 02-2 00.00 LL -0.85 +0.15 0% 13.2
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4004 310-7 00.00 LLLL +0.62 -0.13 0% 14.3
16 Phoenix Rising FC 4004 18-7 00.00 LLLL +0.32 -0.05 0% 15.4
17 Rebels SC 3003 311-8 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.05 0% 14.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.