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Legends FC

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU18/19 · 17 teams · Legends FC (CA) (all teams)

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10th
1-2-1 record · 4 played
1.25 points per game
-5 goal diff · 6–11
DWLDlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.9
-0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Legends FC
10th · 1.25 PPG
vs
Rebels SC
17th · 0.00 PPG

Silverlakes Complex, Field 24 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.8 against · 1.81 expected points)

Season so farLegends FCRebels SC
Position10th17th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-10-0-3
Points per game1.250.00
Goals for / game1.51.0
Goals against / game2.83.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)D L W DL L L
Biggest win1–0 vs Blues—
Worst loss1–7 at LV Heat Surf1–4 vs Legends FC Del Mar
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.76-1.22
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.16+0.59

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Rebels SC concede 3.7/game; worst result 1–4 vs Legends FC Del Mar.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 54% / draw 19% / loss 27%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Rebels SC have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Eagles SC sit 9th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.25.

    A point moves us above Eagles SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rebels SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC – Rebels SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.60 PPG
9th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds
Win
1.60 PPG
9th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds
Draw
1.20 PPG
10th— holds 9th▲ up 1 11th▼ down 1
Loss
1.00 PPG
11th▼ down 1 10th— holds 12th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 14%
  11. 11th 17%
  12. 12th 16%
  13. 13th 14%
  14. 14th 10%
  15. 15th 8%
  16. 16th 6%
  17. 17th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.75) 1st (2.44) 43 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 Legends FC Del Mar 3.00 (+1.75) 2nd (2.23) 43 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
3 Beach Futbol Club 2.50 (+1.25) 4th (1.92) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.25 (+1.00) 6th (1.73) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
5 Utah Royals FC AZ 2.00 (+0.75) 3rd (1.97) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
6 LV Heat Surf 2.00 (+0.75) 5th (1.90) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 Arizona Arsenal 1.80 (+0.55) 7th (1.67) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 LA Breakers FC 1.75 (+0.50) 8th (1.66) 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 Eagles SC 1.33 (+0.08) 9th (1.29) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC to Rebels SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 1–2 4–1 Legends FC 10th Sporting California… 12th Slammers FC HB Koge 4th Rebels SC 17th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 5th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
11:00 AM
no score posted
Beach Futbol Club
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +5
Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
13%
0–2 0.55 1.11 Upside
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Rebels SC
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.81 1.23 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
LAFC
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -8
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–2 1.32 1.24 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +1
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–2 0.96 1.21 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
15th · 0-0-4 · GD -7
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.65 1.26 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.89 1.22 Upside
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.23 1.13 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -7
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.77 1.18 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8
Home
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–2 0.51 1.13 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Away
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.12 1.13 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +2
Away
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.71 1.10 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
Utah Royals FC AZ
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +8
Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.40 1.06 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 4400 174+13 123.00 WWWW -0.43 -0.02 98% 1.6
2 Legends FC Del Mar 3300 91+8 93.00 WWW -0.44 +0.02 88% 2.6
3 Beach Futbol Club 4310 72+5 102.50 WWWD -0.21 +0.18 48% 4.7
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 4301 106+4 92.25 WWWL -0.65 +0.19 24% 6.1
5 Utah Royals FC AZ 5311 179+8 102.00 LDWWW +0.04 -0.07 61% 4.2
6 LV Heat Surf 5311 168+8 102.00 DWLWW -0.19 -0.01 49% 4.7
7 Arizona Arsenal 5302 119+2 91.80 WLWWL -0.16 +0.04 15% 6.7
8 LA Breakers FC 4211 1110+1 71.75 DLWW +0.28 -0.12 16% 6.7
9 Eagles SC 3111 76+1 41.33 DWL -0.81 +0.18 2% 9.7
10 Legends FC 4121 611-5 51.25 DWLD -0.16 +0.10 0% 11.9
11 LAFC 5203 614-8 61.20 LWLWL +0.51 -0.16 0% 11.4
12 Sporting California USA 4112 512-7 41.00 WLLD +0.21 -0.06 0% 12.5
13 SLAMMERS FC 5023 713-6 20.40 DLLLD +0.80 -0.33 0% 12.0
14 Blues 2002 02-2 00.00 LL -0.85 +0.15 0% 13.2
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4004 310-7 00.00 LLLL +0.62 -0.13 0% 14.3
16 Phoenix Rising FC 4004 18-7 00.00 LLLL +0.32 -0.05 0% 15.4
17 Rebels SC 3003 311-8 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.05 0% 15.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.