TableChase Clubs

Blues

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU18/19 · 17 teams · So Cal Blues (all teams)

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14th
0-0-2 record · 2 played
0.00 points per game
-2 goal diff · 0–2
LLlast 2
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.1
-0.85 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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Blues
14th · 0.00 PPG
vs
LV Heat Surf
6th · 2.00 PPG

OC Great Park, Field 19 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.1 against · 0.77 expected points)

Season so farBluesLV Heat Surf
Position14th6th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-23-1-1
Points per game0.002.00
Goals for / game0.03.2
Goals against / game1.01.6
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L LW W L W D
Biggest win—7–1 vs Legends FC
Worst loss0–1 vs Sporting California USA1–2 at Utah Royals FC AZ
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.48+0.91
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.85-0.19

Common opponents: Legends FC — we 0–1; they 7–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    LV Heat Surf score 3.2/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Sporting California USA, 0–1 at Legends FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 19%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    SLAMMERS FC sit 13th on 0.40 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above SLAMMERS FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LV Heat Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Blues – LV Heat Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 17th▼ down 3
Win
1.00 PPG
12th▲ up 2 11th▲ up 3 12th▲ up 2
Draw
0.33 PPG
14th— holds 13th▲ up 1 17th▼ down 3
Loss
0.00 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 17th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 14%
  13. 13th 14%
  14. 14th 14%
  15. 15th 15%
  16. 16th 12%
  17. 17th 7%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.44) 48 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
2 Legends FC Del Mar 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.23) 48 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
3 Beach Futbol Club 2.50 (+2.50) 4th (1.92) 40 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.25 (+2.25) 6th (1.73) 36 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 Utah Royals FC AZ 2.00 (+2.00) 3rd (1.97) 32 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 LV Heat Surf 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.90) 32 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
7 Arizona Arsenal 1.80 (+1.80) 7th (1.67) 29 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 LA Breakers FC 1.75 (+1.75) 8th (1.66) 28 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
9 Eagles SC 1.33 (+1.33) 9th (1.29) 22 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 Legends FC 1.25 (+1.25) 11th (1.06) 20 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
11 LAFC 1.20 (+1.20) 10th (1.11) 20 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
12 Sporting California USA 1.00 (+1.00) 13th (0.97) Win next game
13 SLAMMERS FC 0.40 (+0.40) 12th (1.04) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Blues to LV Heat Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
2 favour them
-7.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 1–7 0–1 2–2 Blues 14th Legends FC 10th Sporting California… 12th LV Heat Surf 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.15 · 4th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
LV Heat Surf
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +8
Home
OC Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.77 0.26 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
15th · 0-0-4 · GD -7
Away
Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.37 0.54 Upside
Sat Nov 7
06:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +5
Home
OC Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.84 0.60 Upside
Sun Nov 8
03:00 PM
San Diego Surf
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.36 0.56 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
LAFC
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -8
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.33 0.67 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -7
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–0 1.68 0.79 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD
LA Breakers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +1
Home
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.04 0.82 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Rebels SC
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.49 0.89 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +2
Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–1 0.82 0.88 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Utah Royals FC AZ
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +8
Away
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.54 0.85 Upside
Sat Apr 24
08:30 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8
Away far trip
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.48 0.83 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Home
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.41 0.87 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Home
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–1 0.97 0.87 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
Eagles SC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.18 0.89 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 4400 174+13 123.00 WWWW -0.43 -0.02 98% 1.5
2 Legends FC Del Mar 3300 91+8 93.00 WWW -0.44 +0.02 88% 2.6
3 Beach Futbol Club 4310 72+5 102.50 WWWD -0.21 +0.18 50% 4.7
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 4301 106+4 92.25 WWWL -0.65 +0.19 23% 6.2
5 Utah Royals FC AZ 5311 179+8 102.00 LDWWW +0.04 -0.07 60% 4.3
6 LV Heat Surf 5311 168+8 102.00 DWLWW -0.19 -0.01 49% 4.7
7 Arizona Arsenal 5302 119+2 91.80 WLWWL -0.16 +0.04 16% 6.7
8 LA Breakers FC 4211 1110+1 71.75 DLWW +0.28 -0.12 15% 6.8
9 Eagles SC 3111 76+1 41.33 DWL -0.81 +0.18 2% 9.7
10 Legends FC 4121 611-5 51.25 DWLD -0.16 +0.10 0% 11.9
11 LAFC 5203 614-8 61.20 LWLWL +0.51 -0.16 0% 11.6
12 Sporting California USA 4112 512-7 41.00 WLLD +0.21 -0.06 0% 12.6
13 SLAMMERS FC 5023 713-6 20.40 DLLLD +0.80 -0.33 0% 11.9
14 Blues 2002 02-2 00.00 LL -0.85 +0.15 0% 13.1
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4004 310-7 00.00 LLLL +0.62 -0.13 0% 14.4
16 Phoenix Rising FC 4004 18-7 00.00 LLLL +0.32 -0.05 0% 15.4
17 Rebels SC 3003 311-8 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.05 0% 15.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.