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Legends FC Del Mar

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU18/19 · 17 teams · Legends FC - Del Mar (all teams)

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2nd
3-0-0 record · 3 played
3.00 points per game
+8 goal diff · 9–1
WWWlast 3
88% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6
-0.44 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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Legends FC Del Mar
2nd · 3.00 PPG
at
Phoenix Rising FC
16th · 0.00 PPG

Santos Soccer Complex, Field 5 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.2 for, 0.6 against · 2.37 expected points)

Season so farLegends FC Del MarPhoenix Rising FC
Position2nd16th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-00-0-4
Points per game3.000.00
Goals for / game3.00.3
Goals against / game0.32.0
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W W WL L L L
Biggest win4–1 at Rebels SC—
Worst loss—0–3 vs Utah Royals FC AZ
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.19-0.91
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.44+0.32

Common opponents: Arizona Arsenal — we 3–0; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Phoenix Rising FC average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 3 of 4.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Phoenix Rising FC have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 08:00 AM at Santos Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    San Diego Surf sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above San Diego Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Phoenix Rising FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC Del Mar – Phoenix Rising FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.25 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

25% finish 1st
88% top 4
12% below the top 4
2.6 average finish
  1. 1st 25%
  2. 2nd 37%
  3. 3rd 16%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.44) Win next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC Del Mar to Phoenix Rising FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
0 favour them
+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 3–1 2–0 1–3 1–0 3–5 4–1 1–3 2–2 3–0 Legends FC Del Mar 2nd Arizona Arsenal 7th SLAMMERS FC 13th Rebels SC 17th LV Heat Surf 6th Utah Royals FC AZ 5th Phoenix Rising FC 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 7th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
08:00 AM
Phoenix Rising FC
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -7
Away far trip
Santos Soccer Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–0 2.37 2.84 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
Utah Royals FC AZ
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +8
Away far trip
Bell Road Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–1 1.53 2.58 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +5
Away far trip
El Camino College
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.46 2.39 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.15 2.22 Upside
Sat Nov 21
11:15 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
15th · 0-0-4 · GD -7
Home
Miramesa High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.52 2.25 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
Silverlakes
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.94 2.22 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD
LV Heat Surf
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +8
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.84 2.18 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
LAFC
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -8
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–0 2.56 2.22 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
08:30 AM
Blues
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -2
Home
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–0 2.33 2.23 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC
10th · 1-2-1 · GD -5
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–1 2.34 2.23 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD
Sporting California USA
12th · 1-1-2 · GD -7
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–0 2.60 2.26 Bank it
Sun May 16
09:00 AM
Eagles SC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
Moorpark High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.03 2.24 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.03 2.23 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 4400 174+13 123.00 WWWW -0.43 -0.02 98% 1.6
2 Legends FC Del Mar 3300 91+8 93.00 WWW -0.44 +0.02 88% 2.6
3 Beach Futbol Club 4310 72+5 102.50 WWWD -0.21 +0.18 47% 4.8
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 4301 106+4 92.25 WWWL -0.65 +0.19 23% 6.2
5 Utah Royals FC AZ 5311 179+8 102.00 LDWWW +0.04 -0.07 61% 4.3
6 LV Heat Surf 5311 168+8 102.00 DWLWW -0.19 -0.01 51% 4.7
7 Arizona Arsenal 5302 119+2 91.80 WLWWL -0.16 +0.04 14% 6.8
8 LA Breakers FC 4211 1110+1 71.75 DLWW +0.28 -0.12 15% 6.7
9 Eagles SC 3111 76+1 41.33 DWL -0.81 +0.18 2% 9.6
10 Legends FC 4121 611-5 51.25 DWLD -0.16 +0.10 0% 11.9
11 LAFC 5203 614-8 61.20 LWLWL +0.51 -0.16 0% 11.5
12 Sporting California USA 4112 512-7 41.00 WLLD +0.21 -0.06 0% 12.7
13 SLAMMERS FC 5023 713-6 20.40 DLLLD +0.80 -0.33 0% 11.9
14 Blues 2002 02-2 00.00 LL -0.85 +0.15 0% 13.1
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4004 310-7 00.00 LLLL +0.62 -0.13 0% 14.4
16 Phoenix Rising FC 4004 18-7 00.00 LLLL +0.32 -0.05 0% 15.4
17 Rebels SC 3003 311-8 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.05 0% 15.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.