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Rebels SC

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU18/19 · 17 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

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17th
0-0-3 record · 3 played
0.00 points per game
-8 goal diff · 3–11
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.0
+0.59 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Rebels SC
17th · 0.00 PPG
at
Legends FC
10th · 1.25 PPG

Silverlakes Complex, Field 24 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.5 against · 1.00 expected points)

Season so farRebels SCLegends FC
Position17th10th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-31-2-1
Points per game0.001.25
Goals for / game1.01.5
Goals against / game3.72.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L L LD L W D
Biggest win—1–0 vs Blues
Worst loss1–4 vs Legends FC Del Mar1–7 at LV Heat Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.22-0.76
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.59-0.16

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 27%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Silverlakes Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Phoenix Rising FC sit 16th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Phoenix Rising FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC – Legends FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
17th— holds 16th▲ up 1 17th— holds
Win
0.75 PPG
13th▲ up 4 13th▲ up 4 15th▲ up 2
Draw
0.25 PPG
14th▲ up 3 14th▲ up 3 17th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
17th— holds 16th▲ up 1 17th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 6%
  13. 13th 7%
  14. 14th 11%
  15. 15th 16%
  16. 16th 23%
  17. 17th 30%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.44) 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Legends FC Del Mar 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.23) 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
3 Beach Futbol Club 2.50 (+2.50) 4th (1.92) 40 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.25 (+2.25) 6th (1.73) 36 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 Utah Royals FC AZ 2.00 (+2.00) 3rd (1.97) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 LV Heat Surf 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.90) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
7 Arizona Arsenal 1.80 (+1.80) 7th (1.67) 29 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 LA Breakers FC 1.75 (+1.75) 8th (1.66) 28 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
9 Eagles SC 1.33 (+1.33) 9th (1.29) 22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 Legends FC 1.25 (+1.25) 11th (1.06) 20 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
11 LAFC 1.20 (+1.20) 10th (1.11) 20 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
12 Sporting California USA 1.00 (+1.00) 13th (0.97) 16 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
13 SLAMMERS FC 0.40 (+0.40) 12th (1.04) A point next game
14 Blues 0.00 (+0.00) 14th (0.89) Already ahead
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 0.00 (+0.00) 15th (0.76) Already ahead
16 Phoenix Rising FC 0.00 (+0.00) 17th (0.62) Already ahead

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC to Legends FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–4 2–1 2–2 Rebels SC 17th Slammers FC HB Koge 4th Sporting California… 12th Legends FC 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 11th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Legends FC
10th · 1-2-1 · GD -5
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.00 0.25 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–4 0.14 0.23 Upside
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +5
Away far trip
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–2 0.41 0.26 Upside
Sat Mar 13
10:45 AM
LAFC
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -8
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.07 0.37 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
LV Heat Surf
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +8
Home
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.47 0.39 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Blues
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -2
Home
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.26 0.48 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
LA Breakers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +1
Home
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–3 0.72 0.51 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Home
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.16 0.57 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Utah Royals FC AZ
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +8
Away
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–4 0.26 0.54 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 PM
Phoenix Rising FC
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -7
Away far trip
PRFC Youth Soccer Facility
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.31 0.60 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Sporting California USA
12th · 1-1-2 · GD -7
Away
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.11 0.64 Upside
Sun May 9
11:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
15th · 0-0-4 · GD -7
Away far trip
Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.15 0.67 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Eagles SC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Home
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.88 0.68 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 4400 174+13 123.00 WWWW -0.43 -0.02 98% 1.5
2 Legends FC Del Mar 3300 91+8 93.00 WWW -0.44 +0.02 88% 2.6
3 Beach Futbol Club 4310 72+5 102.50 WWWD -0.21 +0.18 47% 4.7
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 4301 106+4 92.25 WWWL -0.65 +0.19 23% 6.2
5 Utah Royals FC AZ 5311 179+8 102.00 LDWWW +0.04 -0.07 59% 4.4
6 LV Heat Surf 5311 168+8 102.00 DWLWW -0.19 -0.01 51% 4.7
7 Arizona Arsenal 5302 119+2 91.80 WLWWL -0.16 +0.04 15% 6.7
8 LA Breakers FC 4211 1110+1 71.75 DLWW +0.28 -0.12 17% 6.6
9 Eagles SC 3111 76+1 41.33 DWL -0.81 +0.18 2% 9.7
10 Legends FC 4121 611-5 51.25 DWLD -0.16 +0.10 0% 11.8
11 LAFC 5203 614-8 61.20 LWLWL +0.51 -0.16 0% 11.6
12 Sporting California USA 4112 512-7 41.00 WLLD +0.21 -0.06 0% 12.5
13 SLAMMERS FC 5023 713-6 20.40 DLLLD +0.80 -0.33 0% 11.9
14 Blues 2002 02-2 00.00 LL -0.85 +0.15 0% 13.1
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4004 310-7 00.00 LLLL +0.62 -0.13 0% 14.4
16 Phoenix Rising FC 4004 18-7 00.00 LLLL +0.32 -0.05 0% 15.4
17 Rebels SC 3003 311-8 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.05 0% 15.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.