TableChase Clubs

Arizona Arsenal

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU18/19 · 17 teams · Arizona Arsenal Soccer Club (all teams)

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7th
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
+2 goal diff · 11–9
WLWWLlast 5
16% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.7
-0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 8, 10:00 AM

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Arizona Arsenal
7th · 1.80 PPG
vs
LA Breakers FC
8th · 1.75 PPG

Arizona Athletic Grounds, Field 5 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.3 against · 1.60 expected points)

Season so farArizona ArsenalLA Breakers FC
Position7th8th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-22-1-1
Points per game1.801.75
Goals for / game2.22.8
Goals against / game1.82.5
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L W W L WW W L D
Biggest win5–3 at SLAMMERS FC4–1 vs Pateadores Soccer Club
Worst loss0–3 at Legends FC Del Mar0–3 vs Beach Futbol Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.26+0.26
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.16+0.28

Common opponents: Beach Futbol Club — we 0–1; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    LA Breakers FC score 2.8/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Beach Futbol Club, 0–3 at Legends FC Del Mar.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    LV Heat Surf sit 6th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.80.

    A win moves us above LV Heat Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Breakers FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arizona Arsenal – LA Breakers FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.67 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Win
2.00 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Draw
1.67 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Loss
1.50 PPG
8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
16% top 4
84% below the top 4
6.7 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 9%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 17%
  7. 7th 19%
  8. 8th 18%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.20) 1st (2.44) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2 Legends FC Del Mar 3.00 (+1.20) 2nd (2.23) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3 Beach Futbol Club 2.50 (+0.70) 4th (1.92) 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.25 (+0.45) 6th (1.73) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
5 Utah Royals FC AZ 2.00 (+0.20) 3rd (1.97) Win next game
6 LV Heat Surf 2.00 (+0.20) 5th (1.90) Win next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Arizona Arsenal to LA Breakers FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 3–0 5–3 1–3 4–4 3–1 0–1 3–1 1–4 2–3 1–1 Arizona Arsenal 7th Beach Futbol Club 3rd SLAMMERS FC 13th Phoenix Rising FC 16th Rebels SC 17th LV Heat Surf 6th Slammers FC HB Koge 4th LA Breakers FC 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 6th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +1
Home
Arizona Athletic Grounds
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.60 1.77 Swing game
Wed Nov 18
07:45 PM
Utah Royals FC AZ
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +8
Home
Arizona Athletic Grounds
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–2 1.15 1.68 Upside
Sat Nov 21
TBD
San Diego Surf
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13
Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.78 1.57 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
LAFC
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -8
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.90 1.60 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Eagles SC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.42 1.59 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
15th · 0-0-4 · GD -7
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.17 1.64 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Blues
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -2
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
1–1 1.96 1.66 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Sporting California USA
12th · 1-1-2 · GD -7
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
3–1 2.23 1.71 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Home
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.45 1.69 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Legends FC
10th · 1-2-1 · GD -5
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.13 1.72 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
LV Heat Surf
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +8
Away
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.90 1.67 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 4400 174+13 123.00 WWWW -0.43 -0.02 98% 1.6
2 Legends FC Del Mar 3300 91+8 93.00 WWW -0.44 +0.02 87% 2.6
3 Beach Futbol Club 4310 72+5 102.50 WWWD -0.21 +0.18 47% 4.8
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 4301 106+4 92.25 WWWL -0.65 +0.19 23% 6.2
5 Utah Royals FC AZ 5311 179+8 102.00 LDWWW +0.04 -0.07 60% 4.3
6 LV Heat Surf 5311 168+8 102.00 DWLWW -0.19 -0.01 51% 4.7
7 Arizona Arsenal 5302 119+2 91.80 WLWWL -0.16 +0.04 16% 6.7
8 LA Breakers FC 4211 1110+1 71.75 DLWW +0.28 -0.12 17% 6.7
9 Eagles SC 3111 76+1 41.33 DWL -0.81 +0.18 2% 9.6
10 Legends FC 4121 611-5 51.25 DWLD -0.16 +0.10 0% 12.0
11 LAFC 5203 614-8 61.20 LWLWL +0.51 -0.16 0% 11.6
12 Sporting California USA 4112 512-7 41.00 WLLD +0.21 -0.06 0% 12.5
13 SLAMMERS FC 5023 713-6 20.40 DLLLD +0.80 -0.33 0% 11.9
14 Blues 2002 02-2 00.00 LL -0.85 +0.15 0% 13.1
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4004 310-7 00.00 LLLL +0.62 -0.13 0% 14.4
16 Phoenix Rising FC 4004 18-7 00.00 LLLL +0.32 -0.05 0% 15.4
17 Rebels SC 3003 311-8 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.05 0% 15.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.