Bell Gardens Football Club
Elite Academy League 2 · North U11 · 14 teams · Bell Gardens Football Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.3 for, 1.7 against · 2.52 expected points)
| Season so far | Bell Gardens Football Club | LA Surf SC SFV |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-1 | 1-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 5.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W | L W |
| Biggest win | 12–3 vs Valley United Soccer Club | 2–1 at TFA-SGV |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs Views FC | 0–4 at FC Man United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.63 | -0.66 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.33 | -0.45 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
LA Surf SC SFV average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.7); blanked in 1 of 2.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Views FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the LA Surf SC SFV game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Bell Gardens Football Club – LA Surf SC SFV) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.75 PPG |
5th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 3 | 7th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
6th▼ down 3 | 7th▼ down 4 | 9th▼ down 6 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 4%
- 2nd 37%
- 3rd 26%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 8%
- 6th 5%
- 7th 2%
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 23 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oaks FC 2 | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.54) | 72 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 61 for their projection |
| 2 | Central Coast Surf Soccer | 3.00 (+1.00) | 4th (1.91) | 72 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
How the results connect
1 chain · 4 teams
Paths of results that link Bell Gardens Football Club to LA Surf SC SFV through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.19 · 14th hardest of 14
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
LA Surf SC SFV 8th · 1-0-1 · GD -3 |
Home Citrus College |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
4–1 | 2.52 | 2.13 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 08:00 AM |
FC Golden State Force (2) 14th · 0-0-3 · GD -23 |
Home Gahr High School · grass |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
8–1 | 2.96 | 2.30 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 12:00 AM |
Oaks FC 2 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.63 | 2.02 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 AM |
LAIFC (2) 5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
4–2 | 2.06 | 2.02 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 10:15 AM |
TFA-SGV 11th · 1-1-3 · GD -9 |
Away Azusa High School · grass |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
4–1 | 2.52 | 2.09 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 6 12:00 AM |
Culver City Football Club 10th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.43 | 2.13 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 13 12:00 AM |
Downey United Football Club 7th · 2-0-2 · GD +2 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
3–1 | 2.12 | 2.12 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 9 09:30 AM |
Central Coast Surf Soccer 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +4 |
Away Talley Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.55 | 2.07 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 10 12:00 AM |
FC Man United 9th · 2-1-2 · GD +3 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 2.06 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 24 12:00 AM |
Oxnard United Soccer Club 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
3–3 | 1.35 | 2.01 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 01:30 PM |
Views FC 6th · 2-0-2 · GD +6 |
Away Malibu Bluffs Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
3–3 | 1.49 | 1.97 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 14 12:00 AM |
Autobahn SA 13th · 1-0-4 · GD -14 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
5–1 | 2.75 | 2.02 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 21 12:00 AM |
Central Coast Surf Soccer 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +4 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
3–2 | 1.89 | 2.02 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 12:00 AM |
Valley United Soccer Club 12th · 1-0-3 · GD -9 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
5–2 | 2.46 | 2.04 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 AM |
LA Surf SC SFV 8th · 1-0-1 · GD -3 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.28 | 2.05 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
FC Golden State Force (2) 14th · 0-0-3 · GD -23 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
7–1 | 2.91 | 2.10 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 AM |
Oaks FC 2 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
2–3 | 0.91 | 2.04 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
LAIFC (2) 5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
3–3 | 1.69 | 2.02 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
TFA-SGV 11th · 1-1-3 · GD -9 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
5–1 | 2.71 | 2.06 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
Culver City Football Club 10th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.17 | 2.06 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 12:00 AM |
Downey United Football Club 7th · 2-0-2 · GD +2 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–2 | 1.81 | 2.05 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
FC Man United 9th · 2-1-2 · GD +3 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.68 | 2.03 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Autobahn SA 13th · 1-0-4 · GD -14 |
Away Lincoln Middle Schol |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
4–1 | 2.59 | 2.06 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Oaks FC 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | +21 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -1.62 | +0.07 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Views FC · Sun Nov 8 vs LAIFC (2) · Sun Nov 15 vs Bell Gardens Football Club See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Central Coast Surf Soccer | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | +0.51 | -0.08 | 61% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LAIFC (2) · Sun Nov 8 vs Culver City Football Club · Sun Nov 15 at Autobahn SA See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Bell Gardens Football Club | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.33 | -0.19 | 84% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LA Surf SC SFV · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Golden State Force (2) · Sun Nov 15 at Oaks FC 2 See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Oxnard United Soccer Club | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -1.32 | +0.03 | 68% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs LA Surf SC SFV · Sun Oct 25 at FC Man United · Sun Nov 8 at Downey United Football Club See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | LAIFC (2) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWLW | +0.01 | -0.06 | 29% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer · Sun Nov 8 at Oaks FC 2 · Sat Nov 14 at Oxnard United Soccer Club See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Views FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | +0.39 | -0.17 | 47% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oaks FC 2 · Sun Nov 15 at FC Golden State Force (2) · Sat Nov 21 at FC Man United See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Downey United Football Club | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | -0.28 | +0.04 | 4% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Golden State Force (2) · Sun Nov 8 vs Oxnard United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 at Culver City Football Club See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | LA Surf SC SFV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | -0.45 | +0.10 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Oxnard United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 17 vs Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 at Bell Gardens Football Club See all 24 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Man United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 | 1.40 | WLLDW | -0.23 | +0.02 | 7% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oxnard United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 15 at TFA-SGV See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Culver City Football Club | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | 1.00 | LWDL | +0.65 | -0.01 | 0% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Central Coast Surf Soccer · Sun Nov 15 at Oxnard United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 vs Downey United Football Club See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | TFA-SGV | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 4 | 0.80 | DLLLW | -0.64 | +0.27 | 0% | 11.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Autobahn SA · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Man United See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Valley United Soccer Club | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.75 | -0.05 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at LA Surf SC SFV · Sun Oct 25 vs TFA-SGV · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Man United See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Autobahn SA | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | +0.71 | -0.02 | 0% | 12.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs TFA-SGV · Sun Nov 15 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer · Sat Nov 21 at LA Surf SC SFV See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | FC Golden State Force (2) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 24 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.83 | +0.20 | 0% | 14.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Downey United Football Club · Sat Nov 7 at LA Surf SC SFV · Sun Nov 8 at Bell Gardens Football Club See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.