LA Surf SC SFV
Elite Academy League 2 · North U11 · 14 teams · LA Surf SC SFV (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.7 for, 4.3 against · 0.38 expected points)
| Season so far | LA Surf SC SFV | Bell Gardens Football Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-1 | 2-0-1 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 5.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W | W L W |
| Biggest win | 2–1 at TFA-SGV | 12–3 vs Valley United Soccer Club |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at FC Man United | 0–1 vs Views FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.66 | +1.63 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.45 | +0.33 |
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Bell Gardens Football Club score 5.3/game — well above the league's 2.7.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at FC Man United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 9%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Citrus College.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Downey United Football Club sit 7th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above Downey United Football Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Bell Gardens Football Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Surf SC SFV – Bell Gardens Football Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
10th▼ down 2 | 11th▼ down 3 | 12th▼ down 4 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
5th▲ up 3 | 3rd▲ up 5 | 5th▲ up 3 |
| Draw 1.33 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
10th▼ down 2 | 11th▼ down 3 | 12th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we fall to at least 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th 1%
- 7th 4%
- 8th 10%
- 9th 22%
- 10th 30%
- 11th 20%
- 12th 9%
- 13th 3%
- 14th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 24 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oaks FC 2 | 3.00 (+1.50) | 1st (2.54) | 75 of 72 pts to pass their current pace, 64 for their projection |
| 2 | Central Coast Surf Soccer | 3.00 (+1.50) | 4th (1.91) | 75 of 72 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection |
| 3 | Bell Gardens Football Club | 2.00 (+0.50) | 2nd (2.06) | Win next game |
| 4 | Oxnard United Soccer Club | 2.00 (+0.50) | 3rd (1.95) | Win next game |
| 5 | LAIFC (2) | 2.00 (+0.50) | 6th (1.75) | Win next game |
| 6 | Views FC | 1.50 (+0.00) | 5th (1.84) | A point next game |
| 7 | Downey United Football Club | 1.50 (+0.00) | 8th (1.46) | A point next game |
How the results connect
1 chain · 4 teams
Paths of results that link LA Surf SC SFV to Bell Gardens Football Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.10 · 3rd hardest of 14
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 27 10:25 AM no score posted |
Oxnard United Soccer Club 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away Rio Vista Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–4 | 0.44 | 1.15 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 17 09:00 AM no score posted |
Valley United Soccer Club 12th · 1-0-3 · GD -9 |
Home Del Mar 9 v 9 |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
3–2 | 1.68 | 1.28 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Bell Gardens Football Club 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away Citrus College |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–4 | 0.38 | 1.10 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 03:30 PM |
FC Golden State Force (2) 14th · 0-0-3 · GD -23 |
Home Del Mar 9 v 9 |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
4–1 | 2.57 | 1.35 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 AM |
Autobahn SA 13th · 1-0-4 · GD -14 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.95 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 03:30 PM |
LAIFC (2) 5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6 |
Away Fremont Park, Glendale |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.63 | 1.33 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 12:00 AM |
Oaks FC 2 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.29 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 10 12:00 AM |
Culver City Football Club 10th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–1 | 1.44 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 17 12:00 AM |
Central Coast Surf Soccer 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +4 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 24 12:00 AM |
TFA-SGV 11th · 1-1-3 · GD -9 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–2 | 1.81 | 1.26 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 31 12:00 AM |
FC Golden State Force (2) 14th · 0-0-3 · GD -23 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.35 | 1.34 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 7 12:00 AM |
Oxnard United Soccer Club 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.67 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 14 12:00 AM |
Downey United Football Club 7th · 2-0-2 · GD +2 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.87 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 12:00 AM |
Valley United Soccer Club 12th · 1-0-3 · GD -9 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.33 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 12:00 AM |
FC Man United 9th · 2-1-2 · GD +3 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.04 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 AM |
Bell Gardens Football Club 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.59 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
Autobahn SA 13th · 1-0-4 · GD -14 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.65 | 1.24 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
LAIFC (2) 5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
2–3 | 0.91 | 1.23 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
Oaks FC 2 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.18 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 12:00 AM |
Views FC 6th · 2-0-2 · GD +6 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–3 | 0.79 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
Culver City Football Club 10th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.15 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
Central Coast Surf Soccer 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +4 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–3 | 0.63 | 1.14 | Upside |
| Sun May 23 01:30 PM |
Views FC 6th · 2-0-2 · GD +6 |
Away Valley United Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 1.11 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Downey United Football Club 7th · 2-0-2 · GD +2 |
Home Citrus College |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.13 | 1.11 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Oaks FC 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | +21 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -1.62 | +0.07 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Views FC · Sun Nov 8 vs LAIFC (2) · Sun Nov 15 vs Bell Gardens Football Club See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Central Coast Surf Soccer | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | +0.51 | -0.08 | 62% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LAIFC (2) · Sun Nov 8 vs Culver City Football Club · Sun Nov 15 at Autobahn SA See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Bell Gardens Football Club | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.33 | -0.19 | 85% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LA Surf SC SFV · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Golden State Force (2) · Sun Nov 15 at Oaks FC 2 See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Oxnard United Soccer Club | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -1.32 | +0.03 | 68% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs LA Surf SC SFV · Sun Oct 25 at FC Man United · Sun Nov 8 at Downey United Football Club See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | LAIFC (2) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWLW | +0.01 | -0.06 | 29% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer · Sun Nov 8 at Oaks FC 2 · Sat Nov 14 at Oxnard United Soccer Club See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Views FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | +0.39 | -0.17 | 46% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oaks FC 2 · Sun Nov 15 at FC Golden State Force (2) · Sat Nov 21 at FC Man United See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Downey United Football Club | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | -0.28 | +0.04 | 4% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Golden State Force (2) · Sun Nov 8 vs Oxnard United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 at Culver City Football Club See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | LA Surf SC SFV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | -0.45 | +0.10 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Oxnard United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 17 vs Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 at Bell Gardens Football Club See all 24 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Man United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 | 1.40 | WLLDW | -0.23 | +0.02 | 7% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oxnard United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 15 at TFA-SGV See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Culver City Football Club | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | 1.00 | LWDL | +0.65 | -0.01 | 0% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Central Coast Surf Soccer · Sun Nov 15 at Oxnard United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 vs Downey United Football Club See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | TFA-SGV | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 4 | 0.80 | DLLLW | -0.64 | +0.27 | 0% | 11.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Autobahn SA · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Man United See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Valley United Soccer Club | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.75 | -0.05 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at LA Surf SC SFV · Sun Oct 25 vs TFA-SGV · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Man United See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Autobahn SA | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | +0.71 | -0.02 | 0% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs TFA-SGV · Sun Nov 15 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer · Sat Nov 21 at LA Surf SC SFV See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | FC Golden State Force (2) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 24 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.83 | +0.20 | 0% | 14.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Downey United Football Club · Sat Nov 7 at LA Surf SC SFV · Sun Nov 8 at Bell Gardens Football Club See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.