TableChase Clubs

TFA-SGV

Elite Academy League 2 · North U11 · 14 teams · TFA SGV (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 19 hours ago.
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11th
1-1-3 record · 5 played
0.80 points per game
-9 goal diff · 10–19
DLLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.9
-0.64 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:30 PM

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TFA-SGV
11th · 0.80 PPG
at
Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 0.75 PPG

Valley United Soccer Complex, Artinian ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.9 for, 3.7 against · 1.05 expected points)

Season so farTFA-SGVValley United Soccer Club
Position11th12th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-31-0-3
Points per game0.800.75
Goals for / game2.02.5
Goals against / game3.84.8
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)W L L L DL W L L
Biggest win4–0 vs FC Golden State Force (2)7–1 vs Autobahn SA
Worst loss0–10 at Views FC3–12 at Bell Gardens Football Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.29-1.12
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.64+0.75

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Valley United Soccer Club concede 4.8/game; worst result 3–12 at Bell Gardens Football Club.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–10 at Views FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 30%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:30 PM at Valley United Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Culver City Football Club sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.80.

    A point moves us above Culver City Football Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Valley United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TFA-SGV – Valley United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.67 PPG		 12th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 2
Win
1.17 PPG		 10th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 1
Draw
0.83 PPG		 11th— holds 11th— holds 11th— holds
Loss
0.67 PPG		 12th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we fall to at least 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 21%
  12. 12th 32%
  13. 13th 35%
  14. 14th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.58 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oaks FC 2 3.00 (+2.20) 1st (2.54) 74 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 63 for their projection
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3.00 (+2.20) 4th (1.91) 74 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
3 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.00 (+1.20) 2nd (2.06) 48 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 2.00 (+1.20) 3rd (1.95) 48 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
5 LAIFC (2) 2.00 (+1.20) 6th (1.75) 48 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
6 Views FC 1.50 (+0.70) 5th (1.84) 35 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
7 Downey United Football Club 1.50 (+0.70) 8th (1.46) 35 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
8 LA Surf SC SFV 1.50 (+0.70) 10th (1.11) 35 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
9 FC Man United 1.40 (+0.60) 7th (1.54) 33 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
10 Culver City Football Club 1.00 (+0.20) 9th (1.17) A point next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link TFA-SGV to Valley United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–10 1–0 12–3 4–4 2–4 3–0 1–3 1–4 3–0 4–0 0–12 TFA-SGV 11th Views FC 6th LAIFC (2) 5th Culver City Footbal… 10th FC Golden State For… 14th Bell Gardens Footba… 3rd Downey United Footb… 7th Oaks FC 2 1st Valley United Socce… 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.27 · 1st hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
04:30 PM		 Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -9		 Away
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 2–3 1.05 0.84 Upside
Sun Nov 8
04:30 PM		 Autobahn SA
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -14		 Away
Lincoln Middle Schol		 ●●●●○ Tough
42%		 2–2 1.43 0.93 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 FC Man United
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +3		 Home
Azusa High School · grass		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.82 0.91 Upside
Sun Nov 22
10:15 AM		 Bell Gardens Football Club
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +10		 Home
Azusa High School · grass		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–4 0.39 0.86 Upside
Sun Dec 6
10:15 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +4		 Home
Azusa High School · grass		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–3 0.65 0.83 Upside
Sun Dec 13
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.09 0.77 Upside
Sun Jan 17
12:00 AM		 Downey United Football Club
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +2		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–3 0.66 0.76 Upside
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -3		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 2–2 1.01 0.78 Upside
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM		 LAIFC (2)
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
18%		 2–4 0.66 0.77 Upside
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM		 Culver City Football Club
10th · 1-1-2 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
25%		 1–2 0.92 0.78 Upside
Sun Feb 14
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +10		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 2–4 0.45 0.76 Upside
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM		 Views FC
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +6		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–4 0.56 0.75 Upside
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM		 FC Golden State Force (2)
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -23		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 3–2 2.20 0.83 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -9		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
42%		 3–3 1.42 0.86 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Autobahn SA
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -14		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–2 1.76 0.90 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +3		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.59 0.89 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Bell Gardens Football Club
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +10		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–5 0.23 0.86 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–3 0.43 0.84 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.17 0.81 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Downey United Football Club
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +2		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.91 0.82 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +10		 Away
Rio Vista Middle School		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–5 0.27 0.80 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oaks FC 2 4400 221+21 123.00 WWWW -1.62 +0.07 100% 1.1
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3300 84+4 93.00 WWW +0.51 -0.08 61% 4.1
3 Bell Gardens Football Club 3201 166+10 62.00 WLW +0.33 -0.19 83% 3.1
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3201 166+10 62.00 LWW -1.32 +0.03 67% 3.9
5 LAIFC (2) 5311 1913+6 102.00 WDWLW +0.01 -0.06 31% 5.3
6 Views FC 4202 159+6 61.50 LWWL +0.39 -0.17 46% 4.7
7 Downey United Football Club 4202 86+2 61.50 WLWL -0.28 +0.04 4% 7.5
8 LA Surf SC SFV 2101 25-3 31.50 WL -0.45 +0.10 0% 9.8
9 FC Man United 5212 96+3 71.40 WLLDW -0.23 +0.02 8% 7.0
10 Culver City Football Club 4112 610-4 41.00 LWDL +0.65 -0.01 0% 9.5
11 TFA-SGV 5113 1019-9 40.80 DLLLW -0.64 +0.27 0% 11.9
12 Valley United Soccer Club 4103 1019-9 30.75 LLWL +0.75 -0.05 0% 10.8
13 Autobahn SA 5104 519-14 30.60 LLLLW +0.71 -0.02 0% 12.1
14 FC Golden State Force (2) 3003 124-23 00.00 LLL +0.83 +0.20 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.