TableChase Clubs

Central Coast Surf Soccer

Elite Academy League 2 · North U11 · 14 teams · Central Coast Surf Soccer (all teams)

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2nd
3-0-0 record · 3 played
3.00 points per game
+4 goal diff · 8–4
WWWlast 3
59% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2
+0.51 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:30 PM

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Central Coast Surf Soccer
2nd · 3.00 PPG
at
LAIFC (2)
5th · 2.00 PPG

Fremont Park, Glendale, Fremont Park Soccer Field ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.9 against · 1.34 expected points)

Season so farCentral Coast Surf SoccerLAIFC (2)
Position2nd5th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-03-1-1
Points per game3.002.00
Goals for / game2.73.8
Goals against / game1.32.6
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W WW L W D W
Biggest win4–2 vs Views FC5–2 vs Culver City Football Club
Worst loss—2–4 at Downey United Football Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.75+0.72
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.51+0.01

Common opponents: Views FC — we 4–2; they 5–2. FC Man United — we 2–1; they 3–1. Downey United Football Club — we 2–1; they 2–4.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    LAIFC (2) score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.7.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 39%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:30 PM at Fremont Park, Glendale.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Oaks FC 2 sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Oaks FC 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAIFC (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Coast Surf Soccer – LAIFC (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.50 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.25 PPG		 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
59% top 4
41% below the top 4
4.2 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 18%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 14%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 23 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oaks FC 2 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.54) Win next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Central Coast Surf Soccer to LAIFC (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
3 favour them
+2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 1–3 4–2 2–5 2–1 4–2 0–0 2–5 10–0 4–4 Central Coast Surf … 2nd FC Man United 9th Views FC 6th Downey United Footb… 7th Culver City Footbal… 10th TFA-SGV 11th LAIFC (2) 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 12th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
03:30 PM		 LAIFC (2)
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6		 Away
Fremont Park, Glendale		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.34 2.59 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:30 AM		 Culver City Football Club
10th · 1-1-2 · GD -4		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 2–1 2.12 2.49 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
12:30 PM		 Autobahn SA
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -14		 Away
Lincoln Middle Schol		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–1 2.31 2.46 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM		 FC Golden State Force (2)
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -23		 Away
Azusa High School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 5–1 2.79 2.51 Bank it
Sun Dec 6
10:15 AM		 TFA-SGV
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -9		 Away
Azusa High School · grass		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 3–1 2.21 2.47 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
11:30 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -9		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 4–1 2.41 2.46 Bank it
Sat Jan 9
09:30 AM		 Bell Gardens Football Club
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +10		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.28 2.35 Upside
Sun Jan 10
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +10		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 2–2 1.39 2.26 Upside
Sun Jan 17
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -3		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 2–1 1.95 2.23 Swing game
Sun Jan 24
01:30 PM		 Views FC
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +6		 Away
Malibu Bluffs Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 2–2 1.18 2.15 Upside
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +3		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 1–1 1.39 2.10 Upside
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM		 Downey United Football Club
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +2		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–1 1.79 2.08 Swing game
Sun Feb 14
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.72 1.99 Upside
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM		 Bell Gardens Football Club
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +10		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 2–3 0.95 1.93 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 LAIFC (2)
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 3–2 1.70 1.92 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Culver City Football Club
10th · 1-1-2 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–1 1.84 1.91 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM		 Autobahn SA
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -14		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–1 2.52 1.94 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 FC Golden State Force (2)
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -23		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 5–1 2.88 1.99 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -9		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 3–1 2.46 2.01 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club (2)
 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–2 1.64 1.99 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +10		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–3 1.05 1.95 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -3		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 3–1 2.22 1.96 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21		 Away
Wildflower Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–3 0.50 1.91 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oaks FC 2 4400 221+21 123.00 WWWW -1.62 +0.07 100% 1.1
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3300 84+4 93.00 WWW +0.51 -0.08 59% 4.2
3 Bell Gardens Football Club 3201 166+10 62.00 WLW +0.33 -0.19 85% 3.1
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3201 166+10 62.00 LWW -1.32 +0.03 66% 3.9
5 LAIFC (2) 5311 1913+6 102.00 WDWLW +0.01 -0.06 31% 5.3
6 Views FC 4202 159+6 61.50 LWWL +0.39 -0.17 48% 4.6
7 Downey United Football Club 4202 86+2 61.50 WLWL -0.28 +0.04 4% 7.6
8 LA Surf SC SFV 2101 25-3 31.50 WL -0.45 +0.10 0% 9.9
9 FC Man United 5212 96+3 71.40 WLLDW -0.23 +0.02 7% 7.0
10 Culver City Football Club 4112 610-4 41.00 LWDL +0.65 -0.01 0% 9.5
11 TFA-SGV 5113 1019-9 40.80 DLLLW -0.64 +0.27 0% 11.9
12 Valley United Soccer Club 4103 1019-9 30.75 LLWL +0.75 -0.05 0% 10.8
13 Autobahn SA 5104 519-14 30.60 LLLLW +0.71 -0.02 0% 12.1
14 FC Golden State Force (2) 3003 124-23 00.00 LLL +0.83 +0.20 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.