TableChase Clubs

Oxnard United Soccer Club

Elite Academy League 2 · North U11 · 14 teams · Oxnard United Soccer Club (all teams)

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4th
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
+10 goal diff · 16–6
LWWlast 3
66% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.9
-1.32 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 2.00 PPG
at
FC Man United
9th · 1.40 PPG

Walnut Ranch Park, Field #2-9v9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.1 against · 1.58 expected points)

Season so farOxnard United Soccer ClubFC Man United
Position4th9th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-12-1-2
Points per game2.001.40
Goals for / game5.31.8
Goals against / game2.01.2
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W LW D L L W
Biggest win8–1 at FC Golden State Force (2)4–0 vs LA Surf SC SFV
Worst loss2–4 at Bell Gardens Football Club1–3 vs LAIFC (2)
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.38+0.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.32-0.23

Common opponents: Autobahn SA — we 6–1; they 3–1.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    FC Man United concede only 1.2/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 46% / draw 19% / loss 34%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Walnut Ranch Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Bell Gardens Football Club sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above Bell Gardens Football Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Man United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oxnard United Soccer Club – FC Man United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.75 PPG		 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 4
Win
2.25 PPG		 3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.75 PPG		 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 4
Loss
1.50 PPG		 6th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
66% top 4
34% below the top 4
3.9 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 22%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 23 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oaks FC 2 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.54) 72 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 61 for their projection
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3.00 (+1.00) 4th (1.91) 72 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
3 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.06) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link Oxnard United Soccer Club to FC Man United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–1 1–3 Oxnard United Socce… 4th Autobahn SA 13th FC Man United 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 6th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
10:25 AM
no score posted		 LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -3		 Home
Rio Vista Middle School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 4–1 2.45 2.11 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 FC Man United
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +3		 Away
Walnut Ranch Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–2 1.58 2.01 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
03:15 PM		 Downey United Football Club
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +2		 Away
Rancho Los Amigos Sports Center		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–2 1.72 1.96 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
10:25 AM		 LAIFC (2)
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6		 Home
Rio Vista Middle School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 4–2 1.95 1.96 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
10:25 AM		 Culver City Football Club
10th · 1-1-2 · GD -4		 Home
Rio Vista Middle School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 3–1 2.36 2.01 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.56 1.85 Upside
Sun Dec 6
09:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -9		 Away
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 5–2 2.37 1.90 Bank it
Sun Jan 10
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
42%		 2–2 1.44 1.86 Swing game
Sun Jan 17
01:30 PM		 Views FC
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +6		 Away
Malibu Bluffs Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 3–3 1.37 1.82 Upside
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM		 Bell Gardens Football Club
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +10		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 3–3 1.50 1.79 Swing game
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM		 Autobahn SA
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -14		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 4–1 2.53 1.84 Bank it
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -3		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 3–1 2.19 1.87 Swing game
Sun Feb 14
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -9		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 4–2 2.44 1.90 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM		 FC Golden State Force (2)
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -23		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 7–1 2.95 1.96 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +3		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 2–1 1.89 1.96 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Downey United Football Club
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +2		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 3–1 2.03 1.96 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM		 Culver City Football Club
10th · 1-1-2 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 3–1 2.08 1.97 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 2–3 0.82 1.92 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -9		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 5–2 2.62 1.95 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 LAIFC (2)
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 3–3 1.57 1.93 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +4		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 3–2 1.79 1.92 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Views FC
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +6		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 3–2 1.74 1.92 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -9		 Home
Rio Vista Middle School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 5–1 2.66 1.95 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oaks FC 2 4400 221+21 123.00 WWWW -1.62 +0.07 100% 1.1
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3300 84+4 93.00 WWW +0.51 -0.08 59% 4.2
3 Bell Gardens Football Club 3201 166+10 62.00 WLW +0.33 -0.19 85% 3.1
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3201 166+10 62.00 LWW -1.32 +0.03 66% 3.9
5 LAIFC (2) 5311 1913+6 102.00 WDWLW +0.01 -0.06 31% 5.3
6 Views FC 4202 159+6 61.50 LWWL +0.39 -0.17 48% 4.6
7 Downey United Football Club 4202 86+2 61.50 WLWL -0.28 +0.04 4% 7.6
8 LA Surf SC SFV 2101 25-3 31.50 WL -0.45 +0.10 0% 9.9
9 FC Man United 5212 96+3 71.40 WLLDW -0.23 +0.02 7% 7.0
10 Culver City Football Club 4112 610-4 41.00 LWDL +0.65 -0.01 0% 9.5
11 TFA-SGV 5113 1019-9 40.80 DLLLW -0.64 +0.27 0% 11.9
12 Valley United Soccer Club 4103 1019-9 30.75 LLWL +0.75 -0.05 0% 10.8
13 Autobahn SA 5104 519-14 30.60 LLLLW +0.71 -0.02 0% 12.1
14 FC Golden State Force (2) 3003 124-23 00.00 LLL +0.83 +0.20 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.