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Autobahn SA

Elite Academy League 2 · North U11 · 14 teams · Autobahn SA (all teams)

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13th
1-0-4 record · 5 played
0.60 points per game
-14 goal diff · 5–19
LLLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.1
+0.71 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 8, 04:30 PM

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Autobahn SA
13th · 0.60 PPG
vs
TFA-SGV
11th · 0.80 PPG

Lincoln Middle Schol, Lincoln Middle School ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.4 against · 1.38 expected points)

Season so farAutobahn SATFA-SGV
Position13th11th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-41-1-3
Points per game0.600.80
Goals for / game1.02.0
Goals against / game3.83.8
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W L L L LW L L L D
Biggest win2–0 at Downey United Football Club4–0 vs FC Golden State Force (2)
Worst loss1–7 at Valley United Soccer Club0–10 at Views FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.50-1.29
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.71-0.64

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Oaks FC 2.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 40%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Valley United Soccer Club sit 12th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.60.

    A point moves us above Valley United Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the TFA-SGV game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Autobahn SA – TFA-SGV) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.67 PPG		 13th— holds 12th▲ up 1 14th▼ down 1
Win
1.00 PPG		 11th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 3 13th— holds
Draw
0.67 PPG		 13th— holds 12th▲ up 1 14th▼ down 1
Loss
0.50 PPG		 13th— holds 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 12th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 16%
  12. 12th 29%
  13. 13th 44%
  14. 14th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.54 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oaks FC 2 3.00 (+2.40) 1st (2.54) 75 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 64 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3.00 (+2.40) 4th (1.91) 75 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
3 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.00 (+1.40) 2nd (2.06) 49 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 2.00 (+1.40) 3rd (1.95) 49 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
5 LAIFC (2) 2.00 (+1.40) 6th (1.75) 49 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
6 Views FC 1.50 (+0.90) 5th (1.84) 36 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
7 Downey United Football Club 1.50 (+0.90) 8th (1.46) 36 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
8 LA Surf SC SFV 1.50 (+0.90) 10th (1.11) 36 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9 FC Man United 1.40 (+0.80) 7th (1.54) 34 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
10 Culver City Football Club 1.00 (+0.40) 9th (1.17) Win next game
11 TFA-SGV 0.80 (+0.20) 12th (0.80) A point next game
12 Valley United Soccer Club 0.75 (+0.15) 11th (0.97) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Autobahn SA to TFA-SGV through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
+1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 0–0 3–1 0–3 4–1 1–6 8–1 0–4 4–0 2–1 2–0 4–2 4–4 1–3 12–0 Autobahn SA 13th FC Man United 9th Oaks FC 2 1st Oxnard United Socce… 4th Downey United Footb… 7th Culver City Footbal… 10th FC Golden State For… 14th LA Surf SC SFV 8th LAIFC (2) 5th TFA-SGV 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 9th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 8
04:30 PM		 TFA-SGV
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -9		 Home
Lincoln Middle Schol		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 2–2 1.38 0.73 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:30 PM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +4		 Home
Lincoln Middle Schol		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.55 0.70 Upside
Sat Nov 21
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -3		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.87 0.73 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM		 Culver City Football Club
10th · 1-1-2 · GD -4		 Away
El Marino Elementary		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.79 0.73 Upside
Sat Dec 5
10:30 AM		 FC Golden State Force (2)
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -23		 Home
Autobahn Field - Westside Neighborhood School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.27 0.89 Bank it
Sun Jan 10
12:00 AM		 Views FC
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +6		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–3 0.47 0.85 Upside
Sun Jan 17
12:00 AM		 LAIFC (2)
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–4 0.35 0.81 Upside
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +3		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–2 0.52 0.78 Upside
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +10		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–4 0.38 0.76 Upside
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -9		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 2–3 1.21 0.79 Upside
Sun Feb 14
12:00 AM		 Bell Gardens Football Club
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +10		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–5 0.19 0.75 Upside
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–5 0.08 0.71 Upside
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM		 Downey United Football Club
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +2		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.79 0.71 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -9		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–2 1.06 0.73 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.37 0.71 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -3		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–2 1.15 0.73 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Culver City Football Club
10th · 1-1-2 · GD -4		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.05 0.75 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 FC Golden State Force (2)
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -23		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 3–2 1.98 0.80 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
01:30 PM		 Views FC
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +6		 Away
Malibu Bluffs Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–4 0.29 0.78 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 LAIFC (2)
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.55 0.77 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Bell Gardens Football Club
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +10		 Home
Lincoln Middle Schol		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–4 0.32 0.75 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oaks FC 2 4400 221+21 123.00 WWWW -1.62 +0.07 100% 1.1
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3300 84+4 93.00 WWW +0.51 -0.08 61% 4.1
3 Bell Gardens Football Club 3201 166+10 62.00 WLW +0.33 -0.19 85% 3.1
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3201 166+10 62.00 LWW -1.32 +0.03 68% 3.9
5 LAIFC (2) 5311 1913+6 102.00 WDWLW +0.01 -0.06 29% 5.4
6 Views FC 4202 159+6 61.50 LWWL +0.39 -0.17 46% 4.7
7 Downey United Football Club 4202 86+2 61.50 WLWL -0.28 +0.04 3% 7.6
8 LA Surf SC SFV 2101 25-3 31.50 WL -0.45 +0.10 0% 9.9
9 FC Man United 5212 96+3 71.40 WLLDW -0.23 +0.02 7% 7.0
10 Culver City Football Club 4112 610-4 41.00 LWDL +0.65 -0.01 0% 9.5
11 TFA-SGV 5113 1019-9 40.80 DLLLW -0.64 +0.27 0% 11.9
12 Valley United Soccer Club 4103 1019-9 30.75 LLWL +0.75 -0.05 0% 10.8
13 Autobahn SA 5104 519-14 30.60 LLLLW +0.71 -0.02 0% 12.1
14 FC Golden State Force (2) 3003 124-23 00.00 LLL +0.83 +0.20 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.