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Downey United Football Club

Elite Academy League 2 · North U11 · 14 teams · Downey United Football Club (all teams)

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7th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+2 goal diff · 8–6
WLWLlast 4
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.5
-0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Downey United Football Club
7th · 1.50 PPG
at

Azusa High School, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.0 for, 1.3 against · 2.61 expected points)

Season so farDowney United Football ClubFC Golden State Force (2)
Position7th14th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-20-0-3
Points per game1.500.00
Goals for / game2.00.3
Goals against / game1.58.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)L W L WL L L
Biggest win3–0 at Valley United Soccer Club—
Worst loss0–2 vs Autobahn SA0–12 vs Oaks FC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.18-3.59
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.28+0.83

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FC Golden State Force (2) average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.7); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC Golden State Force (2) concede 8.0/game; worst result 0–12 vs Oaks FC 2.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Autobahn SA.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC Golden State Force (2) have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Azusa High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Views FC sit 6th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Views FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Golden State Force (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Downey United Football Club – FC Golden State Force (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.80 PPG
6th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 2 8th▼ down 1
Win
1.80 PPG
6th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 2 8th▼ down 1
Draw
1.40 PPG
9th▼ down 2 6th▲ up 1 9th▼ down 2
Loss
1.20 PPG
9th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
95% below the top 4
7.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 24%
  8. 8th 32%
  9. 9th 15%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 22 remaining known games (max 2.77 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oaks FC 2 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.54) 72 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 61 for their projection
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3.00 (+1.50) 4th (1.91) 72 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
3 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.00 (+0.50) 2nd (2.06) 46 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 2.00 (+0.50) 3rd (1.95) 46 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
5 LAIFC (2) 2.00 (+0.50) 6th (1.75) 46 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
6 Views FC 1.50 (+0.00) 5th (1.84) A point next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Downey United Football Club to FC Golden State Force (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+6.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 1–6 8–1 4–2 4–4 4–0 0–3 12–0 3–0 0–3 Downey United Footb… 7th Autobahn SA 13th LAIFC (2) 5th Valley United Socce… 12th Oxnard United Socce… 4th TFA-SGV 11th Oaks FC 2 1st FC Golden State For… 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 5th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -23
Away
Azusa High School
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
4–1 2.61 1.72 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
03:15 PM
Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +10
Home
Rancho Los Amigos Sports Center
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–2 1.10 1.62 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
Culver City Football Club
10th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Away
El Marino Elementary
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.56 1.61 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
03:15 PM
FC Man United
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +3
Home
Rancho Los Amigos Sports Center
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.41 1.58 Upside
Sun Dec 6
03:15 PM
Views FC
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +6
Home
Rancho Los Amigos Sports Center
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.22 1.54 Upside
Sun Dec 13
12:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +10
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–3 0.73 1.46 Upside
Sun Jan 10
12:00 AM
Oaks FC 2
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.39 1.37 Upside
Sun Jan 17
12:00 AM
TFA-SGV
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -9
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.19 1.43 Swing game
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM
Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -9
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–1 2.12 1.49 Swing game
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM
Central Coast Surf Soccer
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +4
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.01 1.45 Upside
Sun Feb 14
12:00 AM
LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.94 1.49 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
29%
2–2 1.06 1.46 Upside
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM
Autobahn SA
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -14
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.03 1.49 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -23
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.76 1.56 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +10
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–3 0.81 1.52 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Culver City Football Club
10th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.84 1.54 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
FC Man United
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.16 1.52 Upside
Sun Apr 11
01:30 PM
Views FC
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +6
Away
Malibu Bluffs Park
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.93 1.49 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–2 1.01 1.47 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Oaks FC 2
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.57 1.43 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
TFA-SGV
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -9
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.91 1.45 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -3
Away
Citrus College
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.66 1.46 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oaks FC 2 4400 221+21 123.00 WWWW -1.62 +0.07 100% 1.1
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3300 84+4 93.00 WWW +0.51 -0.08 62% 4.0
3 Bell Gardens Football Club 3201 166+10 62.00 WLW +0.33 -0.19 83% 3.2
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3201 166+10 62.00 LWW -1.32 +0.03 68% 3.9
5 LAIFC (2) 5311 1913+6 102.00 WDWLW +0.01 -0.06 28% 5.4
6 Views FC 4202 159+6 61.50 LWWL +0.39 -0.17 48% 4.7
7 Downey United Football Club 4202 86+2 61.50 WLWL -0.28 +0.04 5% 7.5
8 LA Surf SC SFV 2101 25-3 31.50 WL -0.45 +0.10 0% 9.9
9 FC Man United 5212 96+3 71.40 WLLDW -0.23 +0.02 6% 7.0
10 Culver City Football Club 4112 610-4 41.00 LWDL +0.65 -0.01 0% 9.5
11 TFA-SGV 5113 1019-9 40.80 DLLLW -0.64 +0.27 0% 11.9
12 Valley United Soccer Club 4103 1019-9 30.75 LLWL +0.75 -0.05 0% 10.8
13 Autobahn SA 5104 519-14 30.60 LLLLW +0.71 -0.02 0% 12.1
14 FC Golden State Force (2) 3003 124-23 00.00 LLL +0.83 +0.20 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.