Sporting California USA
ECNL Boys · Southwest BU18/19 · 13 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
San Bernardino Valley College, Turf ↗ · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.2 against · 1.53 expected points)
| Season so far | Sporting California USA | San Diego Surf B08/09 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-1 | 1-3-0 |
| Points per game | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D W D L | D W D D |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at Legends FC Del Mar | 4–0 at LV Heat Surf SC |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs West Coast FC | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.57 | +0.53 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.06 | -0.09 |
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs West Coast FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 42% / draw 26% / loss 32%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Rebels SC sit 9th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.25.A point moves us above Rebels SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the San Diego Surf B08/09 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA – San Diego Surf B08/09) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.20 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.60 PPG |
5th▲ up 5 | 7th▲ up 3 | 10th— holds |
| Draw 1.20 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 11%
- 2nd 11%
- 3rd 11%
- 4th 12%
- 5th 11%
- 6th 12%
- 7th 11%
- 8th 9%
- 9th 7%
- 10th 4%
- 11th 2%
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legends FC | 2.00 (+0.75) | 1st (1.78) | 43 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 2 | LA Breakers FC | 2.00 (+0.75) | 10th (1.38) | 43 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 3 | West Coast FC | 1.80 (+0.55) | 8th (1.55) | 39 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 4 | CDA Slammers FC | 1.67 (+0.42) | 2nd (1.71) | 36 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 5 | SDSC Surf | 1.60 (+0.35) | 4th (1.66) | Win next game |
| 6 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 1.50 (+0.25) | 7th (1.57) | A point next game |
| 7 | Beach Futbol Club | 1.50 (+0.25) | 3rd (1.70) | A point next game |
| 8 | San Diego Surf B08/09 | 1.50 (+0.25) | 5th (1.64) | A point next game |
| 9 | Rebels SC | 1.50 (+0.25) | 11th (1.15) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Sporting California USA to San Diego Surf B08/09 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 11th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
San Diego Surf B08/09 8th · 1-3-0 · GD +4 |
Home San Bernardino Valley College · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.31 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Pateadores Soccer Club 6th · 2-3-1 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Great Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.33 | 1.31 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
Rebels SC 9th · 2-0-2 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Legends FC Del Mar 12th · 1-0-5 · GD -9 |
Home Ontario Sports Empire |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.44 | 1.54 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 10:45 AM |
SDSC Surf 5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.51 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
SDSC Surf 5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4 |
Home San Bernardino Valley College · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.46 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
LA Breakers FC 2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
1–1 | 1.88 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Legends FC 1st · 2-2-0 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.57 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Rebels SC 9th · 2-0-2 · GD -5 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.24 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
San Diego Surf B08/09 8th · 1-3-0 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.29 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
LV Heat Surf SC 13th · 0-1-7 · GD -25 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
2–0 | 2.71 | 1.64 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
LA Breakers FC 2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.64 | 1.64 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
LAFC 11th · 1-2-1 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.76 | 1.64 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Beach Futbol Club 7th · 1-3-0 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.64 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.62 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 09:00 AM |
Legends FC 1st · 2-2-0 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
LV Heat Surf SC 13th · 0-1-7 · GD -25 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
3–0 | 2.80 | 1.66 | Bank it |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
LAFC 11th · 1-2-1 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Sat May 29 11:00 AM |
Beach Futbol Club 7th · 1-3-0 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
El Camino College |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.28 | 1.64 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Legends FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 8 | 2.00 | DWDW | +0.21 | -0.06 | 67% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 21 at Pateadores Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 vs SDSC Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs San Diego Surf B08/09 See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | LA Breakers FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 12 | 2.00 | WLWWL | -0.58 | +0.27 | 10% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at SDSC Surf · Sun Nov 8 at San Diego Surf B08/09 · Sun Nov 15 at Beach Futbol Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | West Coast FC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | DWWDD | -0.01 | +0.04 | 27% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LV Heat Surf SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Beach Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 at Legends FC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | CDA Slammers FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 10 | 1.67 | LWWLW | -0.36 | +0.10 | 56% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs San Diego Surf B08/09 · Sat Oct 24 vs Pateadores Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SDSC Surf | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 | 1.60 | DDWLW | +0.01 | +0.01 | 48% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Beach Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 vs LAFC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 9 | 1.50 | LDDWW | -0.50 | +0.15 | 33% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 21 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 24 at CDA Slammers FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting California USA See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Beach Futbol Club | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 | 1.50 | DWDD | +0.26 | -0.06 | 56% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs SDSC Surf · Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Del Mar See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | San Diego Surf B08/09 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 6 | 1.50 | DDWD | -0.09 | +0.02 | 45% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at CDA Slammers FC · Sat Oct 24 at Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Rebels SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | +0.37 | +0.04 | 1% | 10.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach Futbol Club · Sun Oct 25 at CDA Slammers FC · Sat Oct 31 at LAFC See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Sporting California USA | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 5 | 1.25 | LDWD | -0.06 | +0.00 | 45% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf B08/09 · Sat Oct 31 at Pateadores Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Rebels SC See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | LAFC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 5 | 1.25 | DWLD | -0.24 | +0.08 | 12% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC Del Mar · Sun Oct 25 at SDSC Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Rebels SC See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Legends FC Del Mar | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 | 0.50 | LLWLL | -0.14 | +0.22 | 0% | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC · Sat Oct 31 at Beach Futbol Club · Sun Nov 1 at CDA Slammers FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | LV Heat Surf SC | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 26 | -25 | 1 | 0.13 | LLLLL | +0.23 | +0.23 | 0% | 13.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Coast FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Rebels SC · Sun Mar 14 at Legends FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.