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Rebels SC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU18/19 · 13 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

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9th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
-5 goal diff · 7–12
WWLLlast 4
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.1
+0.37 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Rebels SC
9th · 1.50 PPG
vs
Beach Futbol Club
7th · 1.50 PPG

Monte Vista High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.7 against · 0.81 expected points)

Season so farRebels SCBeach Futbol Club
Position9th7th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-21-3-0
Points per game1.501.50
Goals for / game1.82.3
Goals against / game3.01.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L W WD D W D
Biggest win3–2 at LA Breakers FC5–1 vs Rebels SC
Worst loss1–5 at Beach Futbol Club—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.57+0.61
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.37+0.26

Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 1–5 at Beach Futbol Club (L)

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Beach Futbol Club score 2.2/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Legends FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 21%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    San Diego Surf B08/09 sit 8th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above San Diego Surf B08/09 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Beach Futbol Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC – Beach Futbol Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.20 PPG
11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2
Win
1.80 PPG
4th▲ up 5 3rd▲ up 6 9th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG
9th— holds 8th▲ up 1 11th▼ down 2
Loss
1.20 PPG
11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
10.1 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 19%
  11. 11th 53%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Legends FC 2.00 (+0.50) 1st (1.78) 42 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
2 LA Breakers FC 2.00 (+0.50) 10th (1.38) 42 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
3 West Coast FC 1.80 (+0.30) 8th (1.55) Win next game
4 CDA Slammers FC 1.67 (+0.17) 2nd (1.71) A point next game
5 SDSC Surf 1.60 (+0.10) 4th (1.66) A point next game
6 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.50 (+0.00) 7th (1.57) A point next game
7 Beach Futbol Club 1.50 (+0.00) 3rd (1.70) A point next game
8 San Diego Surf B08/09 1.50 (+0.00) 5th (1.64) A point next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC to Beach Futbol Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
4 favour them
-2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–5 3–2 1–0 2–2 0–3 2–2 1–1 1–1 3–3 Rebels SC 9th LA Breakers FC 2nd Legends FC 1st Pateadores Soccer C… 6th San Diego Surf B08/… 8th Beach Futbol Club 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 5 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 8th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
7th · 1-3-0 · GD +4
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.81 1.36 Upside
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7
Away far trip
Santiago High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.55 1.23 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
LAFC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +2
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.81 1.17 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +4
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.81 1.12 Upside
Sun Nov 8
05:15 PM
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.77 1.08 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -25
Away far trip
Heritage Park Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.48 1.22 Bank it
Tue Nov 24
08:30 AM
SDSC Surf
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–1 0.85 1.19 Upside
Sat Mar 13
11:45 AM
San Diego Surf B08/09
8th · 1-3-0 · GD +4
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.85 1.16 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
6th · 2-3-1 · GD +6
Away
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.63 1.12 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +4
Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.60 1.08 Upside
Sat Apr 10
10:15 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -9
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.99 1.14 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
San Diego Surf B08/09
8th · 1-3-0 · GD +4
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.62 1.11 Upside
Sun Apr 18
10:30 AM
LA Breakers FC
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–2 1.22 1.12 Upside
Sat Apr 24
05:15 PM
West Coast FC
3rd · 2-3-0 · GD +2
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.05 1.11 Upside
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM
Legends FC
1st · 2-2-0 · GD +4
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.81 1.10 Upside
Sat May 1
09:00 AM
SDSC Surf
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
15%
0–2 0.65 1.08 Upside
Sat May 8
05:00 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -9
Away far trip
San Dieguito Academy
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.72 1.11 Swing game
Sat May 15
11:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
6th · 2-3-1 · GD +6
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.87 1.10 Upside
Sun May 16
09:00 AM
LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -25
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.64 1.16 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD
West Coast FC
3rd · 2-3-0 · GD +2
Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.82 1.15 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Legends FC 4220 106+4 82.00 DWDW +0.21 -0.06 68% 3.6
2 LA Breakers FC 6402 108+2 122.00 WLWWL -0.58 +0.27 9% 8.2
3 West Coast FC 5230 64+2 91.80 DWWDD -0.01 +0.04 28% 6.3
4 CDA Slammers FC 6312 136+7 101.67 LWWLW -0.36 +0.10 57% 4.4
5 SDSC Surf 5221 73+4 81.60 DDWLW +0.01 +0.01 47% 4.9
6 Pateadores Soccer Club 6231 137+6 91.50 LDDWW -0.50 +0.15 31% 6.1
7 Beach Futbol Club 4130 95+4 61.50 DWDD +0.26 -0.06 57% 4.4
8 San Diego Surf B08/09 4130 84+4 61.50 DDWD -0.09 +0.02 45% 5.1
9 Rebels SC 4202 712-5 61.50 WWLL +0.37 +0.04 1% 10.1
10 Sporting California USA 4121 73+4 51.25 LDWD -0.06 +0.00 44% 5.2
11 LAFC 4121 75+2 51.25 DWLD -0.24 +0.08 13% 7.9
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6105 514-9 30.50 LLWLL -0.14 +0.22 0% 12.0
13 LV Heat Surf SC 8017 126-25 10.13 LLLLL +0.23 +0.23 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.