TableChase Clubs

San Diego Surf B08/09

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU18/19 · 13 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 48 minutes ago.
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8th
1-3-0 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+4 goal diff · 8–4
DDWDlast 4
46% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.1
-0.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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San Diego Surf B08/09
8th · 1.50 PPG
at
Sporting California USA
10th · 1.25 PPG

San Bernardino Valley College, Turf ↗ · turf far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.5 against · 1.21 expected points)

Season so farSan Diego Surf B08/09Sporting California USA
Position8th10th
Record (W-D-L)1-3-01-2-1
Points per game1.501.25
Goals for / game2.01.8
Goals against / game1.00.8
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)D W D DD W D L
Biggest win4–0 at LV Heat Surf SC5–0 at Legends FC Del Mar
Worst loss—0–1 vs West Coast FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.53+0.57
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.09-0.06

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Sporting California USA concede only 0.8/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 32%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at San Bernardino Valley College.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Beach Futbol Club sit 7th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Beach Futbol Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf B08/09 – Sporting California USA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.40 PPG
9th▼ down 1 7th▲ up 1 10th▼ down 2
Win
1.80 PPG
3rd▲ up 5 4th▲ up 4 10th▼ down 2
Draw
1.40 PPG
9th▼ down 1 7th▲ up 1 10th▼ down 2
Loss
1.20 PPG
11th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

10% finish 1st
46% top 4
54% below the top 4
5.1 average finish
  1. 1st 10%
  2. 2nd 12%
  3. 3rd 12%
  4. 4th 12%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 9%
  9. 9th 7%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Legends FC 2.00 (+0.50) 1st (1.78) 42 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
2 LA Breakers FC 2.00 (+0.50) 10th (1.38) 42 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
3 West Coast FC 1.80 (+0.30) 8th (1.55) Win next game
4 CDA Slammers FC 1.67 (+0.17) 2nd (1.71) A point next game
5 SDSC Surf 1.60 (+0.10) 4th (1.66) A point next game
6 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.50 (+0.00) 7th (1.57) A point next game
7 Beach Futbol Club 1.50 (+0.00) 3rd (1.70) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link San Diego Surf B08/09 to Sporting California USA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
4 even
1 favour them
+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 2–2 1–1 4–0 0–4 2–2 3–3 1–1 0–3 0–0 1–1 0–3 0–5 1–0 San Diego Surf B08/… 8th Beach Futbol Club 7th LV Heat Surf SC 13th Legends FC 1st Pateadores Soccer C… 6th West Coast FC 3rd Legends FC Del Mar 12th Sporting California… 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 5 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 9th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
09:30 AM
no score posted
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7
Away far trip
Santiago High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.20 1.44 Upside
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +4
Away far trip
San Bernardino Valley College · turf
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.21 1.40 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Legends FC
1st · 2-2-0 · GD +4
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.26 1.38 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.45 1.39 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
1–1 1.85 1.44 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
10:45 AM
LAFC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +2
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.48 1.44 Upside
Sat Mar 13
11:45 AM
Rebels SC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.96 1.49 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
11:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -9
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.43 1.57 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
11:00 AM
SDSC Surf
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.22 1.54 Upside
Sat Apr 3
11:00 AM
LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -25
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
3–0 2.80 1.63 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +4
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.45 1.62 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
West Coast FC
3rd · 2-3-0 · GD +2
Away
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.40 1.61 Upside
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
Rebels SC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.22 1.64 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
6th · 2-3-1 · GD +6
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.54 1.64 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.61 1.64 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 PM
LAFC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +2
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–1 1.73 1.64 Swing game
Sun May 9
05:00 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -9
Away
San Dieguito Academy
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–0 2.24 1.67 Swing game
Sat May 15
11:00 AM
SDSC Surf
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.43 1.66 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
6th · 2-3-1 · GD +6
Away
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.29 1.64 Upside
Sat May 29
11:00 AM
West Coast FC
3rd · 2-3-0 · GD +2
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–0 1.62 1.64 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Legends FC 4220 106+4 82.00 DWDW +0.21 -0.06 67% 3.7
2 LA Breakers FC 6402 108+2 122.00 WLWWL -0.58 +0.27 10% 8.2
3 West Coast FC 5230 64+2 91.80 DWWDD -0.01 +0.04 26% 6.4
4 CDA Slammers FC 6312 136+7 101.67 LWWLW -0.36 +0.10 59% 4.3
5 SDSC Surf 5221 73+4 81.60 DDWLW +0.01 +0.01 48% 4.9
6 Pateadores Soccer Club 6231 137+6 91.50 LDDWW -0.50 +0.15 33% 5.9
7 Beach Futbol Club 4130 95+4 61.50 DWDD +0.26 -0.06 56% 4.4
8 San Diego Surf B08/09 4130 84+4 61.50 DDWD -0.09 +0.02 46% 5.1
9 Rebels SC 4202 712-5 61.50 WWLL +0.37 +0.04 1% 10.1
10 Sporting California USA 4121 73+4 51.25 LDWD -0.06 +0.00 44% 5.2
11 LAFC 4121 75+2 51.25 DWLD -0.24 +0.08 11% 8.0
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6105 514-9 30.50 LLWLL -0.14 +0.22 0% 12.0
13 LV Heat Surf SC 8017 126-25 10.13 LLLLL +0.23 +0.23 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.