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Pateadores Soccer Club

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU18/19 · 13 teams · Pateadores Soccer Club (all teams)

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6th
2-3-1 record · 6 played
1.50 points per game
+6 goal diff · 13–7
LDDWWlast 5
31% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.1
-0.50 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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Pateadores Soccer Club
6th · 1.50 PPG
at
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 1.67 PPG

Santiago High School, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.8 against · 1.16 expected points)

Season so farPateadores Soccer ClubCDA Slammers FC
Position6th4th
Record (W-D-L)2-3-13-1-2
Points per game1.501.67
Goals for / game2.22.2
Goals against / game1.21.0
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W D D LW L W W L
Biggest win4–0 at LV Heat Surf SC7–1 vs LV Heat Surf SC
Worst loss0–1 vs LA Breakers FC1–2 at West Coast FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.51+0.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.50-0.36

Common opponents: LA Breakers FC — we 0–1; they 3–1. LV Heat Surf SC — we 4–0, 3–0; they 7–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs LA Breakers FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 31%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 08:00 AM at Santiago High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    SDSC Surf sit 5th on 1.60 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above SDSC Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the CDA Slammers FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pateadores Soccer Club – CDA Slammers FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.43 PPG		 9th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 5
Win
1.71 PPG		 4th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 1 9th▼ down 3
Draw
1.43 PPG		 9th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 5
Loss
1.29 PPG		 9th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
31% top 4
69% below the top 4
6.1 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 8%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Legends FC 2.00 (+0.50) 1st (1.78) 39 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
2 LA Breakers FC 2.00 (+0.50) 10th (1.38) 39 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 West Coast FC 1.80 (+0.30) 8th (1.55) 35 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 CDA Slammers FC 1.67 (+0.17) 2nd (1.71) A point next game
5 SDSC Surf 1.60 (+0.10) 4th (1.66) A point next game

How the results connect

21 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Pateadores Soccer Club to CDA Slammers FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
6 even
7 favour them
+0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–0 1–7 3–0 0–1 1–3 0–1 0–4 2–1 0–0 0–3 0–1 3–1 1–1 0–1 2–1 Pateadores Soccer C… 6th LV Heat Surf SC 13th LA Breakers FC 2nd Sporting California… 10th SDSC Surf 5th Legends FC Del Mar 12th West Coast FC 3rd CDA Slammers FC 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 5 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.15 · 4th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Wed Oct 21
08:00 PM
no score posted		 Legends FC
1st · 2-2-0 · GD +4		 Home
Great Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.50 1.50 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
08:00 AM		 CDA Slammers FC
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7		 Away far trip
Santiago High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.16 1.46 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM		 Sporting California USA
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +4		 Home
Great Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 1–1 1.42 1.45 Upside
Sat Nov 7
07:00 PM		 LAFC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +2		 Home
Great Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 1–1 1.71 1.48 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM		 Beach Futbol Club
7th · 1-3-0 · GD +4		 Away far trip
El Camino College		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–1 1.20 1.45 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -9		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 2–0 2.44 1.54 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 Rebels SC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD -5		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 2–1 2.21 1.59 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
02:30 PM		 LA Breakers FC
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–1 1.58 1.59 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 LAFC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +2		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.45 1.58 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.42 1.57 Upside
Sat Apr 10
11:00 AM		 SDSC Surf
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.18 1.55 Upside
Sun Apr 11
05:00 PM		 Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -9		 Away far trip
San Dieguito Academy		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 2–0 2.24 1.58 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 West Coast FC
3rd · 2-3-0 · GD +2		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–1 1.61 1.59 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf B08/09
8th · 1-3-0 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.22 1.57 Upside
Sat May 15
11:00 AM		 Rebels SC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD -5		 Away far trip
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 2–1 1.95 1.59 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD		 West Coast FC
3rd · 2-3-0 · GD +2		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.38 1.58 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD		 San Diego Surf B08/09
8th · 1-3-0 · GD +4		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.47 1.57 Upside
Sun May 30
TBD		 SDSC Surf
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.41 1.57 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Legends FC 4220 106+4 82.00 DWDW +0.21 -0.06 68% 3.6
2 LA Breakers FC 6402 108+2 122.00 WLWWL -0.58 +0.27 9% 8.2
3 West Coast FC 5230 64+2 91.80 DWWDD -0.01 +0.04 28% 6.3
4 CDA Slammers FC 6312 136+7 101.67 LWWLW -0.36 +0.10 57% 4.4
5 SDSC Surf 5221 73+4 81.60 DDWLW +0.01 +0.01 47% 4.9
6 Pateadores Soccer Club 6231 137+6 91.50 LDDWW -0.50 +0.15 31% 6.1
7 Beach Futbol Club 4130 95+4 61.50 DWDD +0.26 -0.06 57% 4.4
8 San Diego Surf B08/09 4130 84+4 61.50 DDWD -0.09 +0.02 45% 5.1
9 Rebels SC 4202 712-5 61.50 WWLL +0.37 +0.04 1% 10.1
10 Sporting California USA 4121 73+4 51.25 LDWD -0.06 +0.00 44% 5.2
11 LAFC 4121 75+2 51.25 DWLD -0.24 +0.08 13% 7.9
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6105 514-9 30.50 LLWLL -0.14 +0.22 0% 12.0
13 LV Heat Surf SC 8017 126-25 10.13 LLLLL +0.23 +0.23 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.