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SDSC Surf

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU18/19 · 13 teams · SDSC Surf (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 25 minutes ago.
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5th
2-2-1 record · 5 played
1.60 points per game
+4 goal diff · 7–3
DDWLWlast 5
48% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.9
+0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 07:00 PM

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SDSC Surf
5th · 1.60 PPG
at
Legends FC
1st · 2.00 PPG

Silverlakes Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.4 against · 1.30 expected points)

Season so farSDSC SurfLegends FC
Position5th1st
Record (W-D-L)2-2-12-2-0
Points per game1.602.00
Goals for / game1.42.5
Goals against / game0.61.5
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)W L W D DW D W D
Biggest win4–0 at LV Heat Surf SC3–0 vs Rebels SC
Worst loss1–2 vs Legends FC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.47+0.63
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.01+0.21

Already played this season: Sun Sep 27 1–2 vs Legends FC (L)

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Legends FC score 2.5/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at LAFC, 0–0 at CDA Slammers FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 35%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 07:00 PM at Silverlakes Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    CDA Slammers FC sit 4th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.60.

    A point moves us above CDA Slammers FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SDSC Surf – Legends FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.50 PPG		 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 6
Win
1.83 PPG		 2nd▲ up 3 3rd▲ up 2 6th▼ down 1
Draw
1.50 PPG		 8th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 6
Loss
1.33 PPG		 9th▼ down 4 9th▼ down 4 11th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

11% finish 1st
48% top 4
52% below the top 4
4.9 average finish
  1. 1st 11%
  2. 2nd 11%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 8%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Legends FC 2.00 (+0.40) 1st (1.78) 40 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 LA Breakers FC 2.00 (+0.40) 10th (1.38) 40 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 West Coast FC 1.80 (+0.20) 8th (1.55) A point next game
4 CDA Slammers FC 1.67 (+0.07) 2nd (1.71) A point next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link SDSC Surf to Legends FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 even
2 favour them
-0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 4–0 0–4 2–2 0–4 3–3 0–3 0–0 2–3 0–3 SDSC Surf 5th LV Heat Surf SC 13th LAFC 11th San Diego Surf B08/… 8th Pateadores Soccer C… 6th Rebels SC 9th Legends FC 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 5 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 10th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
11:00 AM
no score posted		 Beach Futbol Club
7th · 1-3-0 · GD +4		 Away far trip
El Camino College		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.27 1.55 Upside
Sat Oct 24
07:00 PM		 Legends FC
1st · 2-2-0 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–1 1.30 1.51 Upside
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 LAFC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +2		 Home
Westview High School · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–0 1.71 1.54 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM		 LA Breakers FC
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +2		 Home
Ryan Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 1–0 1.81 1.57 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:45 AM		 Beach Futbol Club
7th · 1-3-0 · GD +4		 Home
Westview High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.50 1.56 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:45 AM		 Sporting California USA
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +4		 Home
Maranatha Christian School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 1–1 1.45 1.55 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 Sporting California USA
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +4		 Away far trip
San Bernardino Valley College · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–1 1.24 1.52 Upside
Tue Nov 24
08:30 AM		 Rebels SC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD -5		 Away far trip
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 1–1 1.93 1.56 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 West Coast FC
3rd · 2-3-0 · GD +2		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
36%		 0–0 1.41 1.55 Upside
Sat Mar 20
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf B08/09
8th · 1-3-0 · GD +4		 Home
Maranatha Christian School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.50 1.54 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 LA Breakers FC
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +2		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–0 1.60 1.55 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM		 LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -25		 Home
Maranatha Christian School · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 2–0 2.73 1.62 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
11:00 AM		 Pateadores Soccer Club
6th · 2-3-1 · GD +6		 Home
Maranatha Christian School · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
42%		 1–1 1.54 1.61 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
05:00 PM		 Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -9		 Away far trip
San Dieguito Academy		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 1–0 2.17 1.64 Swing game
Sat May 1
09:00 AM		 Rebels SC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD -5		 Home
Maranatha Christian School · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 2–0 2.16 1.67 Swing game
Sat May 8
09:00 AM		 West Coast FC
3rd · 2-3-0 · GD +2		 Home
Maranatha Christian School · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–0 1.60 1.66 Swing game
Sat May 15
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf B08/09
8th · 1-3-0 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.28 1.65 Upside
Sat May 22
09:00 AM		 Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -9		 Home
Maranatha Christian School · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 2–0 2.35 1.68 Bank it
Sun May 30
TBD		 Pateadores Soccer Club
6th · 2-3-1 · GD +6		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–1 1.32 1.66 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Legends FC 4220 106+4 82.00 DWDW +0.21 -0.06 68% 3.6
2 LA Breakers FC 6402 108+2 122.00 WLWWL -0.58 +0.27 10% 8.1
3 West Coast FC 5230 64+2 91.80 DWWDD -0.01 +0.04 26% 6.5
4 CDA Slammers FC 6312 136+7 101.67 LWWLW -0.36 +0.10 59% 4.2
5 SDSC Surf 5221 73+4 81.60 DDWLW +0.01 +0.01 48% 4.9
6 Pateadores Soccer Club 6231 137+6 91.50 LDDWW -0.50 +0.15 31% 6.0
7 Beach Futbol Club 4130 95+4 61.50 DWDD +0.26 -0.06 56% 4.4
8 San Diego Surf B08/09 4130 84+4 61.50 DDWD -0.09 +0.02 44% 5.1
9 Rebels SC 4202 712-5 61.50 WWLL +0.37 +0.04 2% 10.1
10 Sporting California USA 4121 73+4 51.25 LDWD -0.06 +0.00 45% 5.2
11 LAFC 4121 75+2 51.25 DWLD -0.24 +0.08 12% 7.9
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6105 514-9 30.50 LLWLL -0.14 +0.22 0% 12.0
13 LV Heat Surf SC 8017 126-25 10.13 LLLLL +0.23 +0.23 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.