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LA Breakers FC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU18/19 · 13 teams · LA Breakers FC (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-2 record · 6 played
2.00 points per game
+2 goal diff · 10–8
WLWWLlast 5
9% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.2
-0.58 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM

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LA Breakers FC
2nd · 2.00 PPG
at
SDSC Surf
5th · 1.60 PPG

Ryan Park, Field 12 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.9 for, 1.5 against · 0.92 expected points)

Season so farLA Breakers FCSDSC Surf
Position2nd5th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-22-2-1
Points per game2.001.60
Goals for / game1.71.4
Goals against / game1.30.6
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)L W W L WW L W D D
Biggest win3–1 at Legends FC Del Mar4–0 at LV Heat Surf SC
Worst loss1–3 vs CDA Slammers FC1–2 vs Legends FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.02+0.47
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.58+0.01

Common opponents: LV Heat Surf SC — we 1–0; they 4–0. CDA Slammers FC — we 1–3; they 0–0, 2–1.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    SDSC Surf concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 22%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Ryan Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Legends FC sit 1st on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above Legends FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SDSC Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Breakers FC – SDSC Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.71 PPG
4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 7
Win
2.14 PPG
1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1 3rd▼ down 1
Draw
1.86 PPG
2nd— holds 1st▲ up 1 5th▼ down 3
Loss
1.71 PPG
4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 7

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 0–1 loss we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
9% top 4
91% below the top 4
8.2 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 3%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 19%
  10. 10th 24%
  11. 11th 12%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Legends FC 2.00 (+0.00) 1st (1.78) A point next game

How the results connect

19 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link LA Breakers FC to SDSC Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
6 even
9 favour them
-1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 0–0 1–2 1–0 0–4 7–1 2–1 0–1 3–0 1–0 3–0 2–3 3–2 0–0 3–1 4–0 0–3 LA Breakers FC 2nd CDA Slammers FC 4th LV Heat Surf SC 13th Legends FC Del Mar 12th Pateadores Soccer C… 6th Rebels SC 9th LAFC 11th SDSC Surf 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 5 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.27 · 1st hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
SDSC Surf
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Away far trip
Ryan Park
●●●●● Very tough
22%
0–1 0.92 1.85 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
San Diego Surf B08/09
8th · 1-3-0 · GD +4
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–1 0.92 1.73 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
7th · 1-3-0 · GD +4
Away far trip
El Camino College
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.89 1.64 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +4
Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–1 0.89 1.56 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7
Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.85 1.50 Upside
Sun Mar 21
02:30 PM
Pateadores Soccer Club
6th · 2-3-1 · GD +6
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.18 1.47 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
SDSC Surf
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Home
●●●●○ Tough
28%
0–1 1.12 1.44 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +4
Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.11 1.42 Upside
Sun Apr 18
10:30 AM
Rebels SC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–1 1.56 1.43 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf B08/09
8th · 1-3-0 · GD +4
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.15 1.41 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
LAFC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +2
Away
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.12 1.39 Upside
Sun May 2
11:00 AM
West Coast FC
3rd · 2-3-0 · GD +2
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.31 1.39 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Legends FC
1st · 2-2-0 · GD +4
Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.14 1.38 Upside
Sun May 9
04:00 PM
West Coast FC
3rd · 2-3-0 · GD +2
Away far trip
Saddleback College
●●●●○ Tough
27%
0–1 1.09 1.36 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Beach Futbol Club
7th · 1-3-0 · GD +4
Home
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.12 1.35 Upside
Sun May 16
09:00 AM
Legends FC
1st · 2-2-0 · GD +4
Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.89 1.33 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -25
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.53 1.38 Bank it
Sat Jun 5
09:00 AM
LAFC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +2
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.37 1.38 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Legends FC 4220 106+4 82.00 DWDW +0.21 -0.06 65% 3.8
2 LA Breakers FC 6402 108+2 122.00 WLWWL -0.58 +0.27 9% 8.2
3 West Coast FC 5230 64+2 91.80 DWWDD -0.01 +0.04 29% 6.3
4 CDA Slammers FC 6312 136+7 101.67 LWWLW -0.36 +0.10 58% 4.2
5 SDSC Surf 5221 73+4 81.60 DDWLW +0.01 +0.01 48% 4.9
6 Pateadores Soccer Club 6231 137+6 91.50 LDDWW -0.50 +0.15 32% 6.0
7 Beach Futbol Club 4130 95+4 61.50 DWDD +0.26 -0.06 56% 4.4
8 San Diego Surf B08/09 4130 84+4 61.50 DDWD -0.09 +0.02 45% 5.1
9 Rebels SC 4202 712-5 61.50 WWLL +0.37 +0.04 1% 10.1
10 Sporting California USA 4121 73+4 51.25 LDWD -0.06 +0.00 44% 5.1
11 LAFC 4121 75+2 51.25 DWLD -0.24 +0.08 12% 7.9
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6105 514-9 30.50 LLWLL -0.14 +0.22 0% 12.0
13 LV Heat Surf SC 8017 126-25 10.13 LLLLL +0.23 +0.23 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.