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Rangers FC

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 17 teams · Rangers FC (all teams)

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12th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
+2 goal diff · 7–5
WLLlast 3
4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.4
-1.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Rangers FC
12th · 1.00 PPG
vs
Inland Surf
4th · 2.25 PPG

Serrano Elementary, Field #1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.1 against · 1.22 expected points)

Season so farRangers FCInland Surf
Position12th4th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-23-0-1
Points per game1.002.25
Goals for / game2.32.5
Goals against / game1.71.3
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L L WW L W W
Biggest win5–0 at AC Brea4–0 vs Fram Soccer Club
Worst loss0–2 at Total Futbol Academy - OC0–2 vs CITY SC San Marcos
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.18+0.79
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.06+0.43

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Inland Surf concede only 1.2/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Total Futbol Academy - OC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 34%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    CITY SC San Marcos sit 11th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above CITY SC San Marcos on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Inland Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rangers FC – Inland Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.75 PPG
13th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 3
Win
1.50 PPG
9th▲ up 3 7th▲ up 5 12th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 15th▼ down 3
Loss
0.75 PPG
13th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
4% top 4
96% below the top 4
10.4 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 9%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 14%
  12. 12th 13%
  13. 13th 13%
  14. 14th 10%
  15. 15th 4%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAIFC 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.47) 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+1.33) 4th (1.87) 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.33 (+1.33) 6th (1.77) 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 Inland Surf 2.25 (+1.25) 2nd (1.94) 33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 2.00 (+1.00) 7th (1.66) 29 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.00 (+1.00) 8th (1.55) 29 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 1.50 (+0.50) 5th (1.80) Win next game
8 BOCA OC 1.50 (+0.50) 3rd (1.88) Win next game
9 California Football Academy 1.50 (+0.50) 13th (1.20) Win next game
10 Fram Soccer Club 1.25 (+0.25) 9th (1.43) A point next game
11 CITY SC San Marcos 1.20 (+0.20) 12th (1.33) A point next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Rangers FC to Inland Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 favour them
-1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 1–0 2–0 5–0 0–3 4–7 2–3 0–2 0–2 1–3 Rangers FC 12th ALBION SC Santa Ana 6th AC Brea 16th Total Futbol Academ… 14th CITY SC San Marcos 11th BOCA OC 8th FLYTE SC Blue- Inla… 5th Inland Surf 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.23 · 2nd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 10
09:00 AM
no score posted
California Football Academy
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -3
Home
Parks Junior High · grass
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–2 1.96 1.24 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Inland Surf
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Home
Serrano Elementary
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–2 1.22 1.23 Upside
Sat Nov 7
04:00 PM
City SC - San Diego (2)
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +8
Away
Alga Norte Park
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.86 1.17 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +2
Home
Serrano Elementary
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.41 1.21 Upside
Sun Nov 22
10:30 AM
Fram Soccer Club
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Home
Serrano Elementary
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.63 1.26 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
09:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +13
Away
Robb Athletic Field
●●●●● Very tough
20%
2–3 0.74 1.20 Upside
Sat Jan 9
09:00 AM
LAIFC
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Home
Serrano Elementary
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.70 1.15 Upside
Sun Jan 10
10:30 AM
BOCA OC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +11
Home
Serrano Elementary
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–3 1.10 1.15 Upside
Sat Jan 16
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
13th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–1 1.43 1.17 Upside
Sat Jan 23
09:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Serrano Elementary
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.67 1.21 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.16 1.20 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Elite FC
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -31
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–1 2.73 1.31 Bank it
Sat Feb 13
09:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -1
Home
Serrano Elementary
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.64 1.33 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAIFC 4400 172+15 123.00 WWWW -0.60 +0.05 98% 1.3
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.09 +0.15 52% 4.9
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3210 53+2 72.33 WWD +0.48 -0.14 33% 6.1
4 Inland Surf 4301 105+5 92.25 WWLW +0.43 -0.22 61% 4.4
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3201 86+2 62.00 WLW +0.38 -0.11 21% 7.2
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3201 89-1 62.00 WLW +0.50 -0.13 12% 8.3
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4202 218+13 61.50 WLLW -1.04 +0.23 46% 5.2
8 BOCA OC 4202 2312+11 61.50 LWLW -0.40 -0.04 57% 4.6
9 California Football Academy 2101 69-3 31.50 LW -0.06 +0.05 1% 11.9
10 Fram Soccer Club 4121 99+0 51.25 WDDL +0.43 -0.14 4% 9.6
11 CITY SC San Marcos 5203 56-1 61.20 LWWLL +0.28 -0.10 3% 10.5
12 Rangers FC 3102 75+2 31.00 WLL -1.06 +0.23 4% 10.4
13 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3102 66+0 31.00 LLW -0.98 +0.20 1% 11.8
14 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4103 313-10 30.75 LWLL +0.81 -0.16 0% 14.4
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 214-12 00.00 LLL +0.43 +0.06 0% 15.9
17 Elite FC 4004 132-31 00.00 LLLL +1.16 -0.08 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.