AC Brea
Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 17 teams · AC Brea (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School, Field 1 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.7 for, 4.1 against · 0.42 expected points)
| Season so far | AC Brea | ALBION SC Santa Ana |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 16th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-3 | 2-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Goals against / game | 4.7 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L | W L W |
| Biggest win | — | 3–2 vs Rangers FC |
| Worst loss | 0–5 vs Rangers FC | 4–7 at BOCA OC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.95 | -0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.43 | +0.50 |
Common opponents: Rangers FC — we 0–5; they 3–2. CITY SC San Marcos — we 0–3; they 1–0.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 vs Rangers FC, 0–3 at CITY SC San Marcos.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 10%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 08:00 AM at Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
-
What a win does
LA Surf LC sit 15th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above LA Surf LC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Santa Ana game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Brea – ALBION SC Santa Ana) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
16th— holds | 16th— holds | 17th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.75 PPG |
15th▲ up 1 | 14th▲ up 2 | 16th— holds |
| Draw 0.25 PPG |
15th▲ up 1 | 16th— holds | 17th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
16th— holds | 16th— holds | 17th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th 1%
- 14th 2%
- 15th 12%
- 16th 75%
- 17th 11%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAIFC | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.47) | 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | City SC - San Diego (2) | 2.33 (+2.33) | 4th (1.87) | 38 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 3 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire | 2.33 (+2.33) | 6th (1.77) | 38 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 4 | Inland Surf | 2.25 (+2.25) | 2nd (1.94) | 36 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 5 | FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire | 2.00 (+2.00) | 7th (1.66) | 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 6 | ALBION SC Santa Ana | 2.00 (+2.00) | 8th (1.55) | 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 7 | ALBION SC San Diego (1) | 1.50 (+1.50) | 5th (1.80) | 24 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 8 | BOCA OC | 1.50 (+1.50) | 3rd (1.88) | 24 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 9 | California Football Academy | 1.50 (+1.50) | 13th (1.20) | 24 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 10 | Fram Soccer Club | 1.25 (+1.25) | 9th (1.43) | 20 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 11 | CITY SC San Marcos | 1.20 (+1.20) | 12th (1.33) | 20 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 12 | Rangers FC | 1.00 (+1.00) | 11th (1.33) | 16 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 13 | ALBION SC Antelope Valley | 1.00 (+1.00) | 14th (1.19) | 16 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 14 | Total Futbol Academy - OC | 0.75 (+0.75) | 15th (0.86) | Win next game |
| 15 | LA Surf LC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 10th (1.40) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
2 chains · 4 teams
Paths of results that link AC Brea to ALBION SC Santa Ana through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.06 · 5th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 08:00 AM |
ALBION SC Santa Ana 6th · 2-0-1 · GD -1 |
Away Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–4 | 0.42 | 0.10 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 12:00 AM |
LA Surf LC 15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.66 | 0.21 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
Total Futbol Academy - OC 14th · 1-0-3 · GD -10 |
Home Brea Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–2 | 1.33 | 0.40 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
ALBION SC Antelope Valley 13th · 1-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away Lancaster National Soccer Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.53 | 0.42 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 09:00 AM |
LAIFC 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15 |
Home Brea Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–4 | 0.15 | 0.39 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 02:30 PM |
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2 |
Home Brea Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.52 | 0.40 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 09:00 AM |
California Football Academy 9th · 1-0-1 · GD -3 |
Away Aliso Canyon Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
2–4 | 0.55 | 0.42 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 12:00 AM |
Elite FC 17th · 0-0-4 · GD -31 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.31 | 0.59 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 23 09:00 AM |
BOCA OC 8th · 2-0-2 · GD +11 |
Away El Rancho Charter School (Upper) |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–6 | 0.12 | 0.55 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 12:00 AM |
Inland Surf 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +5 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.26 | 0.53 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 12:00 AM |
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +2 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.38 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7th · 2-0-2 · GD +13 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–5 | 0.24 | 0.50 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Fram Soccer Club 10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0 |
Away Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.44 | 0.49 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAIFC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.60 | +0.05 | 98% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LA Surf LC · Sun Oct 25 at FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC San Diego (1) See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | City SC - San Diego (2) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | -1.09 | +0.15 | 52% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at California Football Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Rangers FC · Sun Nov 15 at ALBION SC Santa Ana See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | WWD | +0.48 | -0.14 | 33% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at LA Surf LC · Sat Nov 7 vs BOCA OC · Sat Nov 14 at Rangers FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Inland Surf | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | +0.43 | -0.22 | 61% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rangers FC · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley · Sat Nov 14 at LA Surf LC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.38 | -0.11 | 21% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CITY SC San Marcos · Sun Oct 25 vs LAIFC · Sat Nov 7 vs Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | ALBION SC Santa Ana | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.50 | -0.13 | 12% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Brea · Sun Oct 25 at LA Surf LC · Sat Nov 7 at Fram Soccer Club See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | ALBION SC San Diego (1) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | -1.04 | +0.23 | 46% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at BOCA OC · Sat Nov 7 vs LAIFC · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | BOCA OC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | -0.40 | -0.04 | 57% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1) · Sat Nov 7 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire · Sat Nov 14 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | California Football Academy | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | -0.06 | +0.05 | 1% | 11.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Rangers FC · Sat Oct 24 vs City SC - San Diego (2) · Sat Nov 7 at CITY SC San Marcos See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Fram Soccer Club | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 5 | 1.25 | WDDL | +0.43 | -0.14 | 4% | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Elite FC · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sat Nov 14 at LAIFC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | CITY SC San Marcos | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | LWWLL | +0.28 | -0.10 | 3% | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sat Nov 7 vs California Football Academy · Sat Nov 14 at Elite FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Rangers FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | -1.06 | +0.23 | 4% | 10.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs California Football Academy · Sat Oct 24 vs Inland Surf · Sat Nov 7 at City SC - San Diego (2) See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | ALBION SC Antelope Valley | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.98 | +0.20 | 1% | 11.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC · Sat Nov 7 at Inland Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | Total Futbol Academy - OC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | +0.81 | -0.16 | 0% | 14.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley · Sat Nov 14 at AC Brea · Sat Nov 21 vs LA Surf LC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | LA Surf LC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Oct 24 at LAIFC · Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sun Nov 1 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | AC Brea | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 14 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.43 | +0.06 | 0% | 15.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sat Nov 7 vs LA Surf LC · Sat Nov 14 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | Elite FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 32 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +1.16 | -0.08 | 0% | 16.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fram Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sat Nov 14 vs CITY SC San Marcos See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.