TableChase Clubs

ALBION SC San Diego (1)

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 17 teams · ALBION SC San Diego (all teams)

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7th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+13 goal diff · 21–8
WLLWlast 4
44% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.4
-1.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 1.50 PPG
at
BOCA OC
8th · 1.50 PPG

Ronald Reagan Park, Ronald Reagan Park (9v9 field) ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 4–4 (expected goals 4.0 for, 4.3 against · 1.30 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC San Diego (1)BOCA OC
Position7th8th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-22-0-2
Points per game1.501.50
Goals for / game5.35.8
Goals against / game2.03.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W L L WW L W L
Biggest win10–0 vs Elite FC13–0 vs Elite FC
Worst loss3–5 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire1–5 at LAIFC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.47+1.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.04-0.40

Common opponents: Elite FC — we 10–0; they 13–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    BOCA OC score 5.8/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 38%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Ronald Reagan Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the BOCA OC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC San Diego (1) – BOCA OC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.40 PPG
8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 6
Win
1.80 PPG
7th— holds 6th▲ up 1 9th▼ down 2
Draw
1.40 PPG
8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 6
Loss
1.20 PPG
10th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 3 14th▼ down 7

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–4 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
44% top 4
56% below the top 4
5.4 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 12%
  3. 3rd 15%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 11%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAIFC 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.47) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+0.83) 4th (1.87) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.33 (+0.83) 6th (1.77) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
4 Inland Surf 2.25 (+0.75) 2nd (1.94) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 2.00 (+0.50) 7th (1.66) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.00 (+0.50) 8th (1.55) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC San Diego (1) to BOCA OC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 favour them
+0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
10–0 0–13 3–5 1–3 3–2 0–6 5–1 ALBION SC San Diego… 7th Elite FC 17th FLYTE SC Blue- Inla… 5th Inland Surf 4th LAIFC 1st BOCA OC 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.23 · 1st hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
BOCA OC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +11
Away
Ronald Reagan Park
●●●●○ Tough
38%
4–4 1.30 1.46 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
LAIFC
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Home
Robb Athletic Field
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–3 1.08 1.40 Upside
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
13th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–2 1.98 1.48 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
08:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
6th · 2-0-1 · GD -1
Away
Samueli Academy
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–2 1.94 1.54 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
09:00 AM
Rangers FC
12th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Home
Robb Athletic Field
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–2 2.11 1.60 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
09:00 AM
City SC - San Diego (2)
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +8
Home
Robb Athletic Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
3–2 1.70 1.61 Swing game
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.87 1.63 Swing game
Sat Jan 23
09:00 AM
California Football Academy
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -3
Away
Aliso Canyon Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
4–2 2.23 1.68 Bank it
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
4–2 2.25 1.73 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
09:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Away
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
3–2 1.88 1.74 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
5–1 2.70 1.80 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Home
Robb Athletic Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–2 1.73 1.80 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAIFC 4400 172+15 123.00 WWWW -0.60 +0.05 99% 1.3
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.09 +0.15 52% 4.9
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3210 53+2 72.33 WWD +0.48 -0.14 32% 6.2
4 Inland Surf 4301 105+5 92.25 WWLW +0.43 -0.22 61% 4.3
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3201 86+2 62.00 WLW +0.38 -0.11 21% 7.1
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3201 89-1 62.00 WLW +0.50 -0.13 10% 8.5
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4202 218+13 61.50 WLLW -1.04 +0.23 44% 5.4
8 BOCA OC 4202 2312+11 61.50 LWLW -0.40 -0.04 58% 4.6
9 California Football Academy 2101 69-3 31.50 LW -0.06 +0.05 2% 11.9
10 Fram Soccer Club 4121 99+0 51.25 WDDL +0.43 -0.14 7% 9.4
11 CITY SC San Marcos 5203 56-1 61.20 LWWLL +0.28 -0.10 3% 10.5
12 Rangers FC 3102 75+2 31.00 WLL -1.06 +0.23 3% 10.4
13 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3102 66+0 31.00 LLW -0.98 +0.20 1% 11.8
14 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4103 313-10 30.75 LWLL +0.81 -0.16 0% 14.4
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 214-12 00.00 LLL +0.43 +0.06 0% 15.9
17 Elite FC 4004 132-31 00.00 LLLL +1.16 -0.08 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.