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FLYTE SC- Inland Empire

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 17 teams · FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (all teams)

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3rd
2-1-0 record · 3 played
2.33 points per game
+2 goal diff · 5–3
WWDlast 3
32% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.2
+0.48 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 11:30 AM

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FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 2.33 PPG
at
LA Surf LC
15th · 0.00 PPG

Citrus College, Citrus 9v9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.9 against · 1.47 expected points)

Season so farFLYTE SC- Inland EmpireLA Surf LC
Position3rd15th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-00-0-0
Points per game2.330.00
Goals for / game1.70.0
Goals against / game1.00.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)D W W—
Biggest win1–0 vs CITY SC San Marcos—
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.37+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.48+0.00

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LA Surf LC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 42%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:30 AM at Citrus College.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    City SC - San Diego (2) sit 2nd on 2.33 PPG; we are on 2.33.

    A point moves us above City SC - San Diego (2) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Surf LC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FLYTE SC- Inland Empire – LA Surf LC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Win
2.50 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2
Loss
1.75 PPG
7th▼ down 4 7th▼ down 4 7th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
32% top 4
68% below the top 4
6.2 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 8%
  3. 3rd 10%
  4. 4th 12%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 11%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 7%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAIFC 3.00 (+0.67) 1st (2.47) 41 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+0.00) 4th (1.87) A point next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 14th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
11:30 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
Citrus College
●●●●○ Tough
42%
2–1 1.47 2.12 Upside
Sat Nov 7
04:00 PM
BOCA OC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +11
Home
RJRSP
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.25 1.94 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
Rangers FC
12th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.37 1.85 Upside
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM
Elite FC
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -31
Away
Rincon Park
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–0 2.74 1.97 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–1 2.04 1.98 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.07 1.88 Upside
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego (2)
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–2 1.28 1.82 Upside
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
14th · 1-0-3 · GD -10
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.04 1.84 Swing game
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–2 1.28 1.80 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
6th · 2-0-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.78 1.79 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.50 1.84 Bank it
Sat Feb 13
07:20 PM
LAIFC
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Away
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.62 1.76 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
13th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Home
RJRSP
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.81 1.77 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAIFC 4400 172+15 123.00 WWWW -0.60 +0.05 99% 1.3
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.09 +0.15 52% 4.9
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3210 53+2 72.33 WWD +0.48 -0.14 32% 6.2
4 Inland Surf 4301 105+5 92.25 WWLW +0.43 -0.22 61% 4.3
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3201 86+2 62.00 WLW +0.38 -0.11 21% 7.1
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3201 89-1 62.00 WLW +0.50 -0.13 10% 8.5
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4202 218+13 61.50 WLLW -1.04 +0.23 44% 5.4
8 BOCA OC 4202 2312+11 61.50 LWLW -0.40 -0.04 58% 4.6
9 California Football Academy 2101 69-3 31.50 LW -0.06 +0.05 2% 11.9
10 Fram Soccer Club 4121 99+0 51.25 WDDL +0.43 -0.14 7% 9.4
11 CITY SC San Marcos 5203 56-1 61.20 LWWLL +0.28 -0.10 3% 10.5
12 Rangers FC 3102 75+2 31.00 WLL -1.06 +0.23 3% 10.4
13 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3102 66+0 31.00 LLW -0.98 +0.20 1% 11.8
14 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4103 313-10 30.75 LWLL +0.81 -0.16 0% 14.4
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 214-12 00.00 LLL +0.43 +0.06 0% 15.9
17 Elite FC 4004 132-31 00.00 LLLL +1.16 -0.08 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.