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Total Futbol Academy - OC

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 17 teams · Total Futbol Academy - OC (all teams)

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14th
1-0-3 record · 4 played
0.75 points per game
-10 goal diff · 3–13
LWLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.4
+0.81 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Total Futbol Academy - OC
14th · 0.75 PPG
at

Lancaster National Soccer Center, 34 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.5 against · 0.74 expected points)

Season so farTotal Futbol Academy - OCALBION SC Antelope Valley
Position14th13th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-31-0-2
Points per game0.751.00
Goals for / game0.82.0
Goals against / game3.32.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L L W LW L L
Biggest win2–0 vs Rangers FC3–1 vs Elite FC
Worst loss0–6 at ALBION SC San Diego (1)1–2 vs LAIFC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.22-0.16
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.81-0.98

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire, 0–6 at ALBION SC San Diego (1).

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 19%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Lancaster National Soccer Center.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Antelope Valley sit 13th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC Antelope Valley on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Antelope Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy - OC – ALBION SC Antelope Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.60 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 16th▼ down 2
Win
1.20 PPG
12th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 4 14th— holds
Draw
0.80 PPG
14th— holds 13th▲ up 1 15th▼ down 1
Loss
0.60 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 16th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 9%
  14. 14th 17%
  15. 15th 53%
  16. 16th 10%
  17. 17th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAIFC 3.00 (+2.25) 1st (2.47) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+1.58) 4th (1.87) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.33 (+1.58) 6th (1.77) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 Inland Surf 2.25 (+1.50) 2nd (1.94) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 2.00 (+1.25) 7th (1.66) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.00 (+1.25) 8th (1.55) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 1.50 (+0.75) 5th (1.80) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8 BOCA OC 1.50 (+0.75) 3rd (1.88) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
9 California Football Academy 1.50 (+0.75) 13th (1.20) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
10 Fram Soccer Club 1.25 (+0.50) 9th (1.43) 17 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 CITY SC San Marcos 1.20 (+0.45) 12th (1.33) Win next game
12 Rangers FC 1.00 (+0.25) 11th (1.33) A point next game
13 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 1.00 (+0.25) 14th (1.19) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Total Futbol Academy - OC to ALBION SC Antelope Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–6 10–0 1–3 Total Futbol Academ… 14th ALBION SC San Diego… 7th Elite FC 17th ALBION SC Antelope … 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.16 · 16th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
13th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.74 0.75 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Away
Brea Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–2 1.47 0.87 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
02:45 PM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Hoover High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.89 0.87 Upside
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.01 0.89 Upside
Sat Dec 12
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.88 0.89 Upside
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
6th · 2-0-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.63 0.86 Upside
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.77 0.85 Upside
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
LAIFC
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.27 0.81 Upside
Sat Jan 30
09:00 AM
California Football Academy
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -3
Away
Aliso Canyon Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–3 0.79 0.80 Upside
Sat Feb 6
09:00 AM
BOCA OC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +11
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–5 0.24 0.76 Upside
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.60 0.75 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Elite FC
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -31
Home
Azusa High School · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.42 0.86 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAIFC 4400 172+15 123.00 WWWW -0.60 +0.05 99% 1.3
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.09 +0.15 52% 4.9
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3210 53+2 72.33 WWD +0.48 -0.14 32% 6.2
4 Inland Surf 4301 105+5 92.25 WWLW +0.43 -0.22 61% 4.3
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3201 86+2 62.00 WLW +0.38 -0.11 21% 7.1
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3201 89-1 62.00 WLW +0.50 -0.13 10% 8.5
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4202 218+13 61.50 WLLW -1.04 +0.23 44% 5.4
8 BOCA OC 4202 2312+11 61.50 LWLW -0.40 -0.04 58% 4.6
9 California Football Academy 2101 69-3 31.50 LW -0.06 +0.05 2% 11.9
10 Fram Soccer Club 4121 99+0 51.25 WDDL +0.43 -0.14 7% 9.4
11 CITY SC San Marcos 5203 56-1 61.20 LWWLL +0.28 -0.10 3% 10.5
12 Rangers FC 3102 75+2 31.00 WLL -1.06 +0.23 3% 10.4
13 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3102 66+0 31.00 LLW -0.98 +0.20 1% 11.8
14 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4103 313-10 30.75 LWLL +0.81 -0.16 0% 14.4
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 214-12 00.00 LLL +0.43 +0.06 0% 15.9
17 Elite FC 4004 132-31 00.00 LLLL +1.16 -0.08 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.