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Elite FC

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 17 teams · SoCal Elite FC (all teams)

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17th
0-0-4 record · 4 played
0.00 points per game
-31 goal diff · 1–32
LLLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 16.9
+1.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:15 AM

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Elite FC
17th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Fram Soccer Club
10th · 1.25 PPG

Rincon Park, Field #1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.3 for, 4.6 against · 0.22 expected points)

Season so farElite FCFram Soccer Club
Position17th10th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-41-2-1
Points per game0.001.25
Goals for / game0.32.3
Goals against / game8.02.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless31
Form (recent first)L L L LL D D W
Biggest win—7–3 vs California Football Academy
Worst loss0–13 at BOCA OC0–4 at Inland Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.81+0.05
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.16+0.43

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–10 at ALBION SC San Diego (1), 0–6 vs LAIFC, 0–13 at BOCA OC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 5%; a draw (7%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:15 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    AC Brea sit 16th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above AC Brea on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fram Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Elite FC – Fram Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds
Win
0.60 PPG
15th▲ up 2 15th▲ up 2 17th— holds
Draw
0.20 PPG
15th▲ up 2 16th▲ up 1 17th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
16.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th 9%
  17. 17th 91%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAIFC 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.47) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+2.33) 4th (1.87) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.33 (+2.33) 6th (1.77) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 Inland Surf 2.25 (+2.25) 2nd (1.94) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 2.00 (+2.00) 7th (1.66) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.00 (+2.00) 8th (1.55) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 1.50 (+1.50) 5th (1.80) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
8 BOCA OC 1.50 (+1.50) 3rd (1.88) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
9 California Football Academy 1.50 (+1.50) 13th (1.20) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
10 Fram Soccer Club 1.25 (+1.25) 9th (1.43) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
11 CITY SC San Marcos 1.20 (+1.20) 12th (1.33) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
12 Rangers FC 1.00 (+1.00) 11th (1.33) 16 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
13 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 1.00 (+1.00) 14th (1.19) 16 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
14 Total Futbol Academy - OC 0.75 (+0.75) 15th (0.86) 12 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
15 LA Surf LC 0.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.40) Already ahead
16 AC Brea 0.00 (+0.00) 16th (0.49) Already ahead

How the results connect

3 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Elite FC to Fram Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
3 favour them
-9.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 2–3 3–7 0–13 2–3 4–0 0–10 2–3 1–1 Elite FC 17th ALBION SC Antelope … 13th BOCA OC 8th ALBION SC San Diego… 7th California Football… 9th Inland Surf 4th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 3rd Fram Soccer Club 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 10th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:15 AM
Fram Soccer Club
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Home
Rincon Park
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.22 0.04 Upside
Sat Nov 7
04:00 PM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
RJRSP
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.08 0.05 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
CITY SC San Marcos
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -1
Home
Rincon Park
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–3 0.36 0.09 Upside
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +2
Home
Rincon Park
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–4 0.20 0.11 Upside
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego (2)
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +8
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–6 0.04 0.10 Upside
Sat Dec 12
08:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
6th · 2-0-1 · GD -1
Away
Samueli Academy
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.11 0.10 Upside
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.21 0.11 Upside
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.56 0.15 Upside
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.12 0.15 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
12th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.20 0.15 Upside
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–5 0.27 0.16 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
14th · 1-0-3 · GD -10
Away
Azusa High School · grass
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.46 0.18 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAIFC 4400 172+15 123.00 WWWW -0.60 +0.05 99% 1.3
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.09 +0.15 52% 4.9
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3210 53+2 72.33 WWD +0.48 -0.14 32% 6.2
4 Inland Surf 4301 105+5 92.25 WWLW +0.43 -0.22 61% 4.3
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3201 86+2 62.00 WLW +0.38 -0.11 21% 7.1
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3201 89-1 62.00 WLW +0.50 -0.13 10% 8.5
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4202 218+13 61.50 WLLW -1.04 +0.23 44% 5.4
8 BOCA OC 4202 2312+11 61.50 LWLW -0.40 -0.04 58% 4.6
9 California Football Academy 2101 69-3 31.50 LW -0.06 +0.05 2% 11.9
10 Fram Soccer Club 4121 99+0 51.25 WDDL +0.43 -0.14 7% 9.4
11 CITY SC San Marcos 5203 56-1 61.20 LWWLL +0.28 -0.10 3% 10.5
12 Rangers FC 3102 75+2 31.00 WLL -1.06 +0.23 3% 10.4
13 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3102 66+0 31.00 LLW -0.98 +0.20 1% 11.8
14 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4103 313-10 30.75 LWLL +0.81 -0.16 0% 14.4
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 214-12 00.00 LLL +0.43 +0.06 0% 15.9
17 Elite FC 4004 132-31 00.00 LLLL +1.16 -0.08 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.