TableChase Clubs

LAIFC

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 17 teams · LAIFC (all teams)

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1st
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+15 goal diff · 17–2
WWWWlast 4
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3
-0.60 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 07:20 PM

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LAIFC
1st · 3.00 PPG
vs
LA Surf LC
15th · 0.00 PPG

Pacific Community Center & Park, Turf Field ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.4 against · 2.48 expected points)

Season so farLAIFCLA Surf LC
Position1st15th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-00-0-0
Points per game3.000.00
Goals for / game4.30.0
Goals against / game0.50.0
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W W—
Biggest win6–0 at Elite FC—
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.95+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.60+0.00

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LA Surf LC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 79% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Surf LC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAIFC – LA Surf LC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.40 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

82% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
1.3 average finish
  1. 1st 82%
  2. 2nd 12%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 7th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
07:20 PM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.48 2.90 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
05:00 PM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
RJRSP
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.08 2.76 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +13
Away
Robb Athletic Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
3–2 1.75 2.62 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
07:20 PM
Fram Soccer Club
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Home
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.44 2.59 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
06:45 PM
Inland Surf
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Home
Glendale Sports Complex Field
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.08 2.54 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
09:00 AM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Away
Brea Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–1 2.79 2.56 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
07:20 PM
California Football Academy
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.70 2.57 Bank it
Sat Jan 9
09:00 AM
Rangers FC
12th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 2.54 Swing game
Sat Jan 16
07:20 PM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
6th · 2-0-1 · GD -1
Home
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.51 2.53 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
14th · 1-0-3 · GD -10
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.63 2.54 Bank it
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego (2)
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +8
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.79 2.49 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
07:20 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +2
Home
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.21 2.47 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAIFC 4400 172+15 123.00 WWWW -0.60 +0.05 99% 1.3
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.09 +0.15 53% 4.9
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3210 53+2 72.33 WWD +0.48 -0.14 33% 6.1
4 Inland Surf 4301 105+5 92.25 WWLW +0.43 -0.22 62% 4.2
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3201 86+2 62.00 WLW +0.38 -0.11 20% 7.1
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3201 89-1 62.00 WLW +0.50 -0.13 11% 8.5
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4202 218+13 61.50 WLLW -1.04 +0.23 45% 5.3
8 BOCA OC 4202 2312+11 61.50 LWLW -0.40 -0.04 60% 4.5
9 California Football Academy 2101 69-3 31.50 LW -0.06 +0.05 1% 12.0
10 Fram Soccer Club 4121 99+0 51.25 WDDL +0.43 -0.14 4% 9.5
11 CITY SC San Marcos 5203 56-1 61.20 LWWLL +0.28 -0.10 2% 10.6
12 Rangers FC 3102 75+2 31.00 WLL -1.06 +0.23 3% 10.3
13 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3102 66+0 31.00 LLW -0.98 +0.20 1% 11.8
14 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4103 313-10 30.75 LWLL +0.81 -0.16 0% 14.4
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 214-12 00.00 LLL +0.43 +0.06 0% 15.9
17 Elite FC 4004 132-31 00.00 LLLL +1.16 -0.08 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.