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Fram Soccer Club

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 17 teams · Fram CQ (all teams)

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10th
1-2-1 record · 4 played
1.25 points per game
+0 goal diff · 9–9
WDDLlast 4
6% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.4
+0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:15 AM

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Fram Soccer Club
10th · 1.25 PPG
at
Elite FC
17th · 0.00 PPG

Rincon Park, Field #1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.6 for, 1.3 against · 2.71 expected points)

Season so farFram Soccer ClubElite FC
Position10th17th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-10-0-4
Points per game1.250.00
Goals for / game2.30.3
Goals against / game2.38.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)L D D WL L L L
Biggest win7–3 vs California Football Academy—
Worst loss0–4 at Inland Surf0–13 at BOCA OC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.05-3.81
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.43+1.16

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Elite FC average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 3 of 4.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Elite FC concede 8.0/game; worst result 0–13 at BOCA OC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Inland Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 88% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Elite FC have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:15 AM at Rincon Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:15 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    California Football Academy sit 9th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.25.

    A point moves us above California Football Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Elite FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Fram Soccer Club – Elite FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.60 PPG
7th▲ up 3 6th▲ up 4 11th▼ down 1
Win
1.60 PPG
7th▲ up 3 6th▲ up 4 11th▼ down 1
Draw
1.20 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 14th▼ down 4
Loss
1.00 PPG
13th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
6% top 4
94% below the top 4
9.4 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th 12%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 11%
  13. 13th 8%
  14. 14th 6%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAIFC 3.00 (+1.75) 1st (2.47) 43 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+1.08) 4th (1.87) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.33 (+1.08) 6th (1.77) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
4 Inland Surf 2.25 (+1.00) 2nd (1.94) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 2.00 (+0.75) 7th (1.66) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.00 (+0.75) 8th (1.55) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 1.50 (+0.25) 5th (1.80) A point next game
8 BOCA OC 1.50 (+0.25) 3rd (1.88) A point next game
9 California Football Academy 1.50 (+0.25) 13th (1.20) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Fram Soccer Club to Elite FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
0 favour them
+9.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–3 3–2 3–1 0–4 3–2 13–0 1–1 3–2 10–0 Fram Soccer Club 10th California Football… 9th Inland Surf 4th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 3rd ALBION SC Antelope … 13th BOCA OC 8th ALBION SC San Diego… 7th Elite FC 17th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 15th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:15 AM
Elite FC
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -31
Away
Rincon Park
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.71 1.54 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
6th · 2-0-1 · GD -1
Home
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.60 1.55 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
07:20 PM
LAIFC
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Away
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.44 1.39 Upside
Sun Nov 22
10:30 AM
Rangers FC
12th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.18 1.37 Upside
Sat Dec 5
09:00 AM
BOCA OC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +11
Home
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●●●○ Tough
29%
2–3 1.01 1.33 Upside
Sat Dec 12
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
14th · 1-0-3 · GD -10
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.93 1.39 Swing game
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–2 1.08 1.36 Upside
Sat Jan 30
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
13th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Home
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.66 1.38 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
09:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +13
Home
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●●●○ Tough
27%
2–3 0.97 1.35 Upside
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.27 1.35 Upside
Sat Feb 27
09:30 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -1
Home
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.59 1.36 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Home
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.45 1.43 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAIFC 4400 172+15 123.00 WWWW -0.60 +0.05 99% 1.3
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.09 +0.15 53% 4.8
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3210 53+2 72.33 WWD +0.48 -0.14 35% 6.0
4 Inland Surf 4301 105+5 92.25 WWLW +0.43 -0.22 61% 4.3
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3201 86+2 62.00 WLW +0.38 -0.11 22% 7.1
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3201 89-1 62.00 WLW +0.50 -0.13 12% 8.4
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4202 218+13 61.50 WLLW -1.04 +0.23 43% 5.4
8 BOCA OC 4202 2312+11 61.50 LWLW -0.40 -0.04 55% 4.6
9 California Football Academy 2101 69-3 31.50 LW -0.06 +0.05 1% 11.9
10 Fram Soccer Club 4121 99+0 51.25 WDDL +0.43 -0.14 6% 9.4
11 CITY SC San Marcos 5203 56-1 61.20 LWWLL +0.28 -0.10 2% 10.7
12 Rangers FC 3102 75+2 31.00 WLL -1.06 +0.23 3% 10.4
13 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3102 66+0 31.00 LLW -0.98 +0.20 1% 11.8
14 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4103 313-10 30.75 LWLL +0.81 -0.16 0% 14.3
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 214-12 00.00 LLL +0.43 +0.06 0% 15.9
17 Elite FC 4004 132-31 00.00 LLLL +1.16 -0.08 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.