TableChase Clubs

City SC - San Diego (2)

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 17 teams · City SC - San Diego (all teams)

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2nd
2-1-0 record · 3 played
2.33 points per game
+8 goal diff · 12–4
DWWlast 3
50% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.0
-1.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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City SC - San Diego (2)
2nd · 2.33 PPG
at

Jim Johnson Park, Jim Johnson Park (TURF) ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.9 for, 2.4 against · 2.09 expected points)

Season so farCity SC - San Diego (2)California Football Academy
Position2nd9th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-01-0-1
Points per game2.331.50
Goals for / game4.03.0
Goals against / game1.34.5
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W DW L
Biggest win5–1 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC3–2 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley
Worst loss—3–7 at Fram Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.07-0.59
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.09-0.06

Common opponents: Fram Soccer Club — we 1–1; they 3–7.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    California Football Academy concede 4.5/game; worst result 3–7 at Fram Soccer Club.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 65% / draw 14% / loss 21%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Jim Johnson Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the California Football Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (City SC - San Diego (2) – California Football Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1
Win
2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 5
Loss
1.75 PPG
7th▼ down 5 6th▼ down 4 10th▼ down 8

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
50% top 4
50% below the top 4
5.0 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 16%
  3. 3rd 15%
  4. 4th 15%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 7%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAIFC 3.00 (+0.67) 1st (2.47) 41 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link City SC - San Diego (2) to California Football Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 7–3 City SC - San Diego… 2nd Fram Soccer Club 10th California Football… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.15 · 4th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
California Football Academy
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -3
Away
Jim Johnson Park · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–2 2.09 2.27 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
04:00 PM
Rangers FC
12th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Home
Alga Norte Park
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.97 2.21 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
08:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
6th · 2-0-1 · GD -1
Away
Samueli Academy
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
3–2 1.80 2.14 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
08:00 AM
BOCA OC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +11
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●●●○ Tough
35%
3–3 1.20 2.01 Upside
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
Elite FC
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -31
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–1 2.95 2.13 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
09:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +13
Away
Robb Athletic Field
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–3 1.14 2.02 Upside
Sun Dec 13
02:30 PM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Alga Norte Park
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.11 2.03 Swing game
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–1 1.51 1.98 Swing game
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
3–2 1.90 1.97 Swing game
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.75 1.96 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
LAIFC
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.02 1.89 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.62 1.87 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
13th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.85 1.87 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAIFC 4400 172+15 123.00 WWWW -0.60 +0.05 99% 1.3
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.09 +0.15 50% 5.0
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3210 53+2 72.33 WWD +0.48 -0.14 34% 6.0
4 Inland Surf 4301 105+5 92.25 WWLW +0.43 -0.22 60% 4.3
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3201 86+2 62.00 WLW +0.38 -0.11 23% 6.9
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3201 89-1 62.00 WLW +0.50 -0.13 12% 8.4
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4202 218+13 61.50 WLLW -1.04 +0.23 47% 5.2
8 BOCA OC 4202 2312+11 61.50 LWLW -0.40 -0.04 58% 4.6
9 California Football Academy 2101 69-3 31.50 LW -0.06 +0.05 1% 11.8
10 Fram Soccer Club 4121 99+0 51.25 WDDL +0.43 -0.14 5% 9.5
11 CITY SC San Marcos 5203 56-1 61.20 LWWLL +0.28 -0.10 2% 10.6
12 Rangers FC 3102 75+2 31.00 WLL -1.06 +0.23 3% 10.5
13 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3102 66+0 31.00 LLW -0.98 +0.20 1% 11.8
14 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4103 313-10 30.75 LWLL +0.81 -0.16 0% 14.4
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 214-12 00.00 LLL +0.43 +0.06 0% 15.9
17 Elite FC 4004 132-31 00.00 LLLL +1.16 -0.08 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.