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California Football Academy

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 17 teams · California Football Academy (all teams)

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9th
1-0-1 record · 2 played
1.50 points per game
-3 goal diff · 6–9
LWlast 2
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.9
-0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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California Football Academy
9th · 1.50 PPG
vs

Jim Johnson Park, Jim Johnson Park (TURF) ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.4 for, 3.9 against · 0.77 expected points)

Season so farCalifornia Football AcademyCity SC - San Diego (2)
Position9th2nd
Record (W-D-L)1-0-12-1-0
Points per game1.502.33
Goals for / game3.04.0
Goals against / game4.51.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W LW W D
Biggest win3–2 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley5–1 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC
Worst loss3–7 at Fram Soccer Club—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.59+1.07
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.06-1.09

Common opponents: Fram Soccer Club — we 3–7; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    City SC - San Diego (2) score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 21%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    BOCA OC sit 8th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above BOCA OC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the City SC - San Diego (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (California Football Academy – City SC - San Diego (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
13th▼ down 4 12th▼ down 3 15th▼ down 6
Win
2.00 PPG
6th▲ up 3 5th▲ up 4 7th▲ up 2
Draw
1.33 PPG
9th— holds 11th▼ down 2 14th▼ down 5
Loss
1.00 PPG
13th▼ down 4 12th▼ down 3 15th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we fall to at least 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
11.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 15%
  13. 13th 18%
  14. 14th 20%
  15. 15th 9%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAIFC 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.47) 45 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+0.83) 4th (1.87) 35 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.33 (+0.83) 6th (1.77) 35 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 Inland Surf 2.25 (+0.75) 2nd (1.94) 33 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 2.00 (+0.50) 7th (1.66) Win next game
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.00 (+0.50) 8th (1.55) Win next game
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 1.50 (+0.00) 5th (1.80) A point next game
8 BOCA OC 1.50 (+0.00) 3rd (1.88) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link California Football Academy to City SC - San Diego (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–7 1–1 California Football… 9th Fram Soccer Club 10th City SC - San Diego… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 6th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 10
09:00 AM
no score posted
Rangers FC
12th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Away
Parks Junior High · grass
●●●●● Very tough
24%
2–3 0.89 1.30 Upside
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
City SC - San Diego (2)
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +8
Home
Jim Johnson Park · turf
●●●●● Very tough
21%
2–3 0.77 1.16 Upside
Sat Nov 7
02:30 PM
CITY SC San Marcos
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -1
Away
Cerro de Las Posas Park Stadium · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.09 1.15 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Aliso Canyon Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–3 1.10 1.14 Upside
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–3 0.80 1.09 Upside
Sat Dec 12
07:20 PM
LAIFC
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.23 0.99 Upside
Sat Jan 9
09:00 AM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Home
Aliso Canyon Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
4–2 2.34 1.14 Bank it
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +5
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.60 1.08 Upside
Sat Jan 23
09:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +13
Home
Aliso Canyon Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
18%
2–4 0.65 1.04 Upside
Sat Jan 30
09:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
14th · 1-0-3 · GD -10
Home
Aliso Canyon Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–1 2.06 1.13 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
6th · 2-0-1 · GD -1
Home
Aliso Canyon Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
39%
3–3 1.32 1.14 Upside
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
Elite FC
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -31
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
5–1 2.66 1.25 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
BOCA OC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +11
Home
Aliso Canyon Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
19%
3–5 0.68 1.21 Upside
Sun May 30
10:30 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
Dana Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
27%
2–3 0.97 1.20 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAIFC 4400 172+15 123.00 WWWW -0.60 +0.05 99% 1.3
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.09 +0.15 50% 5.0
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3210 53+2 72.33 WWD +0.48 -0.14 34% 6.0
4 Inland Surf 4301 105+5 92.25 WWLW +0.43 -0.22 61% 4.3
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3201 86+2 62.00 WLW +0.38 -0.11 24% 7.0
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3201 89-1 62.00 WLW +0.50 -0.13 12% 8.3
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4202 218+13 61.50 WLLW -1.04 +0.23 45% 5.4
8 BOCA OC 4202 2312+11 61.50 LWLW -0.40 -0.04 57% 4.6
9 California Football Academy 2101 69-3 31.50 LW -0.06 +0.05 1% 11.9
10 Fram Soccer Club 4121 99+0 51.25 WDDL +0.43 -0.14 5% 9.5
11 CITY SC San Marcos 5203 56-1 61.20 LWWLL +0.28 -0.10 3% 10.4
12 Rangers FC 3102 75+2 31.00 WLL -1.06 +0.23 3% 10.3
13 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3102 66+0 31.00 LLW -0.98 +0.20 1% 11.9
14 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4103 313-10 30.75 LWLL +0.81 -0.16 0% 14.4
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 214-12 00.00 LLL +0.43 +0.06 0% 15.9
17 Elite FC 4004 132-31 00.00 LLLL +1.16 -0.08 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.