TableChase Clubs

CITY SC San Marcos

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 17 teams · CITY SC San Marcos (all teams)

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11th
2-0-3 record · 5 played
1.20 points per game
-1 goal diff · 5–6
LWWLLlast 5
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.5
+0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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CITY SC San Marcos
11th · 1.20 PPG
vs

Cerro de Las Posas Park Stadium, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.7 against · 1.29 expected points)

Season so farCITY SC San MarcosFLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
Position11th5th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-32-0-1
Points per game1.202.00
Goals for / game1.02.7
Goals against / game1.22.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)L L W W LW L W
Biggest win3–0 vs AC Brea2–0 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC
Worst loss0–4 at LAIFC1–3 vs Inland Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.09+0.39
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.28+0.38

Common opponents: Inland Surf — we 2–0; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire, 0–4 at LAIFC, 0–1 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 35%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Fram Soccer Club sit 10th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 1.20.

    A point moves us above Fram Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CITY SC San Marcos – FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.17 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 15th▼ down 4
Win
1.50 PPG
9th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 3 14th▼ down 3
Draw
1.17 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 15th▼ down 4
Loss
1.00 PPG
13th▼ down 2 11th— holds 15th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
10.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 7%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 12%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 15%
  13. 13th 13%
  14. 14th 10%
  15. 15th 4%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAIFC 3.00 (+1.80) 1st (2.47) 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+1.13) 4th (1.87) 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.33 (+1.13) 6th (1.77) 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
4 Inland Surf 2.25 (+1.05) 2nd (1.94) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 2.00 (+0.80) 7th (1.66) 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.00 (+0.80) 8th (1.55) 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 1.50 (+0.30) 5th (1.80) Win next game
8 BOCA OC 1.50 (+0.30) 3rd (1.88) Win next game
9 California Football Academy 1.50 (+0.30) 13th (1.20) Win next game
10 Fram Soccer Club 1.25 (+0.05) 9th (1.43) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link CITY SC San Marcos to FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 favour them
+1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 3–1 0–1 3–2 3–5 CITY SC San Marcos 11th Inland Surf 4th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 3rd ALBION SC San Diego… 7th FLYTE SC Blue- Inla… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 11th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Cerro de Las Posas Park Stadium · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.29 1.22 Upside
Sat Nov 7
02:30 PM
California Football Academy
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -3
Home
Cerro de Las Posas Park Stadium · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.71 1.29 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
Elite FC
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -31
Away
Rincon Park
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–0 2.52 1.44 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
14th · 1-0-3 · GD -10
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–1 1.75 1.47 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.19 1.45 Upside
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.94 1.40 Upside
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego (2)
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.03 1.37 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
BOCA OC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +11
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.97 1.34 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
13th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.52 1.35 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
09:00 AM
Rangers FC
12th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.12 1.34 Upside
Sat Feb 27
09:30 AM
Fram Soccer Club
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Away
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.18 1.33 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAIFC 4400 172+15 123.00 WWWW -0.60 +0.05 99% 1.3
2 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 124+8 72.33 DWW -1.09 +0.15 52% 4.9
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3210 53+2 72.33 WWD +0.48 -0.14 32% 6.2
4 Inland Surf 4301 105+5 92.25 WWLW +0.43 -0.22 61% 4.3
5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3201 86+2 62.00 WLW +0.38 -0.11 21% 7.1
6 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3201 89-1 62.00 WLW +0.50 -0.13 10% 8.5
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4202 218+13 61.50 WLLW -1.04 +0.23 44% 5.4
8 BOCA OC 4202 2312+11 61.50 LWLW -0.40 -0.04 58% 4.6
9 California Football Academy 2101 69-3 31.50 LW -0.06 +0.05 2% 11.9
10 Fram Soccer Club 4121 99+0 51.25 WDDL +0.43 -0.14 7% 9.4
11 CITY SC San Marcos 5203 56-1 61.20 LWWLL +0.28 -0.10 3% 10.5
12 Rangers FC 3102 75+2 31.00 WLL -1.06 +0.23 3% 10.4
13 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3102 66+0 31.00 LLW -0.98 +0.20 1% 11.8
14 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4103 313-10 30.75 LWLL +0.81 -0.16 0% 14.4
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 214-12 00.00 LLL +0.43 +0.06 0% 15.9
17 Elite FC 4004 132-31 00.00 LLLL +1.16 -0.08 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.