TableChase Clubs

San Juan SC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU16 · 12 teams · San Juan Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd
8-0-2 record · 10 played
2.40 points per game
+27 goal diff · 34–7
LWLWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0
-0.52 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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San Juan SC
3rd · 2.40 PPG
at
Davis Legacy
5th · 1.64 PPG

Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 10 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.2 against · 1.89 expected points)

Season so farSan Juan SCDavis Legacy
Position3rd5th
Record (W-D-L)8-0-25-3-3
Points per game2.401.64
Goals for / game3.42.1
Goals against / game0.71.2
Clean sheets54
Held scoreless14
Form (recent first)W W L W LD L W L D
Biggest win7–0 vs Stanislaus Surf5–0 at Santa Rosa United
Worst loss0–1 vs Bay Area Surf0–2 vs Mustang SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.80+0.56
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.52-0.28

Common opponents: Stanislaus Surf — we 7–0; they 0–1, 0–0. Placer United — we 6–0; they 0–0. Pleasanton RAGE — we 2–0; they 5–1. Santa Rosa United — we 3–0; they 5–0. Bay Area Surf — we 0–1; they 3–4. COSC — we 6–1; they 3–1. Mustang SC — we 2–3; they 0–2. Marin FC — we 3–1, 2–1; they 2–2, 2–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Bay Area Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 56% / draw 22% / loss 23%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Davis Legacy Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    MVLA sit 2nd on 2.45 PPG; we are on 2.40.

    A point moves us above MVLA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Davis Legacy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Juan SC – Davis Legacy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.27 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Win
2.45 PPG		 3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
2.27 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Loss
2.18 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

6% finish 1st
100% top 4
1% below the top 4
3.0 average finish
  1. 1st 6%
  2. 2nd 27%
  3. 3rd 33%
  4. 4th 34%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Bay Area Surf 2.82 (+0.42) 1st (2.59) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 MVLA 2.45 (+0.05) 2nd (2.32) A point next game

How the results connect

97 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link San Juan SC to Davis Legacy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

55 favour us
13 even
29 favour them
+1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 0–2 0–1 4–3 2–1 2–2 2–3 2–0 3–0 0–5 2–0 1–5 6–1 1–3 6–0 0–0 7–0 0–0 1–0 San Juan SC 3rd Marin FC 11th Bay Area Surf 1st Mustang SC 4th Santa Rosa United 12th Pleasanton RAGE 9th COSC 6th Placer United 10th Stanislaus Surf 7th Davis Legacy 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 15 Aug 29 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.17 · 3rd hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
TBD
no score posted		 Mustang SC
4th · 8-0-2 · GD +14		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 2–1 1.72 2.34 Swing game
Sat Oct 10
12:00 PM
no score posted		 COSC
6th · 4-0-5 · GD -19		 Home
Tiemann Law Firm Fields at San Juan Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 4–0 2.87 2.38 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 Davis Legacy
5th · 5-3-3 · GD +10		 Away
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 1–1 1.89 2.34 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Santa Rosa United
12th · 0-1-10 · GD -40		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 4–0 2.93 2.39 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
TBD		 Bay Area Surf
1st · 10-1-0 · GD +32		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–1 1.00 2.29 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 MVLA
2nd · 9-0-2 · GD +44		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.33 2.23 Upside
Sun Mar 14
01:00 PM		 Stanislaus Surf
7th · 3-3-4 · GD -13		 Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–0 2.55 2.25 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Davis Legacy
5th · 5-3-3 · GD +10		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 2–1 2.13 2.25 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Force
8th · 3-2-6 · GD -7		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–0 2.38 2.25 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 MVLA
2nd · 9-0-2 · GD +44		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–2 1.04 2.19 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Pleasanton RAGE
9th · 3-1-7 · GD -20		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 5–0 2.85 2.22 Bank it
Sun May 9
TBD		 Placer United
10th · 2-2-8 · GD -18		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 3–0 2.78 2.25 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Bay Area Surf 111010 375+32 312.82 WDWWW -0.43 +0.10 100% 1.3
2 MVLA 11902 5410+44 272.45 WWWWW -1.01 +0.45 100% 2.5
3 San Juan SC 10802 347+27 242.40 LWLWW -0.52 +0.17 100% 3.0
4 Mustang SC 10802 2814+14 242.40 LWWWW +0.10 -0.33 100% 3.2
5 Davis Legacy 11533 2313+10 181.64 DLWLD -0.28 +0.19 1% 5.1
6 COSC 9405 1029-19 121.33 LLWWL +0.17 +0.11 0% 8.7
7 Stanislaus Surf 10334 1225-13 121.20 DWLWD +0.40 -0.25 0% 6.8
8 Force 11326 1017-7 111.00 DLLWD +0.00 +0.03 0% 8.0
9 Pleasanton RAGE 11317 1939-20 100.91 WLLLL +0.30 -0.07 0% 8.8
10 Placer United 12228 1432-18 80.67 LLWLL +0.27 -0.09 0% 9.9
11 Marin FC 11218 1121-10 70.64 DWLLL +0.50 -0.33 0% 8.7
12 Santa Rosa United 110110 343-40 10.09 LLLLD +0.38 +0.08 0% 12.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.