TableChase Clubs

COSC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU16 · 12 teams · California Odyssey Soccer Club (all teams)

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6th
4-0-5 record · 9 played
1.33 points per game
-19 goal diff · 10–29
LLWWLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.7
+0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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COSC
6th · 1.33 PPG
at
Mustang SC
4th · 2.40 PPG

Sycamore Park Soccer, Field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.0 for, 4.3 against · 0.19 expected points)

Season so farCOSCMustang SC
Position6th4th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-58-0-2
Points per game1.332.40
Goals for / game1.12.8
Goals against / game3.21.4
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L W W L LW W W W L
Biggest win3–1 vs Force6–2 vs Pleasanton RAGE
Worst loss1–10 at MVLA1–3 vs Bay Area Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.50+1.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.17+0.10

Common opponents: Marin FC — we 1–0; they 0–1. MVLA — we 1–10; they 3–1. Stanislaus Surf — we 1–2; they 4–2. Force — we 3–1; they 1–0. Davis Legacy — we 1–3; they 2–0. San Juan SC — we 1–6; they 3–2. Placer United — we 1–0; they 4–1. Bay Area Surf — we 0–7; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Mustang SC score 2.8/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–7 at Bay Area Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 4%; a draw (7%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Mustang SC have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Sycamore Park Soccer.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mustang SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (COSC – Mustang SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.20 PPG		 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1
Win
1.50 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
1.30 PPG		 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1
Loss
1.20 PPG		 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 18%
  8. 8th 20%
  9. 9th 21%
  10. 10th 20%
  11. 11th 14%
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.32 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Bay Area Surf 2.82 (+1.49) 1st (2.59) 51 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 MVLA 2.45 (+1.12) 2nd (2.32) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 San Juan SC 2.40 (+1.07) 3rd (2.25) 41 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
4 Mustang SC 2.40 (+1.07) 4th (2.23) 41 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
5 Davis Legacy 1.64 (+0.31) 5th (1.60) 25 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection

How the results connect

89 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link COSC to Mustang SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
6 even
76 favour them
-3.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 0–1 1–0 1–4 1–0 1–0 1–2 2–4 1–3 0–2 0–7 3–1 1–6 2–3 1–10 1–3 0–3 3–2 2–4 1–0 1–1 7–0 COSC 6th Force 8th Placer United 10th Marin FC 11th Stanislaus Surf 7th Davis Legacy 5th Bay Area Surf 1st San Juan SC 3rd MVLA 2nd Santa Rosa United 12th Pleasanton RAGE 9th Mustang SC 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 15 Aug 29 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.11 · 4th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 10
12:00 PM
no score posted		 San Juan SC
3rd · 8-0-2 · GD +27		 Away far trip
Tiemann Law Firm Fields at San Juan Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.09 1.21 Upside
Sun Oct 11
10:00 AM
no score posted		 Bay Area Surf
1st · 10-1-0 · GD +32		 Home
Edison High School Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.11 1.11 Upside
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM		 Mustang SC
4th · 8-0-2 · GD +14		 Away far trip
Sycamore Park Soccer		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.19 1.03 Upside
Sun Nov 1
TBD		 Force
8th · 3-2-6 · GD -7		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–1 0.90 1.02 Upside
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM		 Davis Legacy
5th · 5-3-3 · GD +10		 Home
Edison High School Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–2 0.51 0.99 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:00 PM		 Pleasanton RAGE
9th · 3-1-7 · GD -20		 Away far trip
Stanford Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 2–2 0.98 0.99 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 PM		 Marin FC
11th · 2-1-8 · GD -10		 Home
Edison High School Fields		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.13 1.00 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 PM		 Mustang SC
4th · 8-0-2 · GD +14		 Home
Edison High School Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–3 0.31 0.95 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 MVLA
2nd · 9-0-2 · GD +44		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.07 0.91 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 PM		 Pleasanton RAGE
9th · 3-1-7 · GD -20		 Home
Edison High School Fields		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.29 0.93 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 PM		 Placer United
10th · 2-2-8 · GD -18		 Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.09 0.93 Upside
Sun May 2
01:00 PM		 Stanislaus Surf
7th · 3-3-4 · GD -13		 Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.91 0.93 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 Santa Rosa United
12th · 0-1-10 · GD -40		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 2–0 2.31 1.00 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Bay Area Surf 111010 375+32 312.82 WDWWW -0.43 +0.10 100% 1.3
2 MVLA 11902 5410+44 272.45 WWWWW -1.01 +0.45 100% 2.5
3 San Juan SC 10802 347+27 242.40 LWLWW -0.52 +0.17 100% 3.0
4 Mustang SC 10802 2814+14 242.40 LWWWW +0.10 -0.33 100% 3.2
5 Davis Legacy 11533 2313+10 181.64 DLWLD -0.28 +0.19 1% 5.1
6 COSC 9405 1029-19 121.33 LLWWL +0.17 +0.11 0% 8.7
7 Stanislaus Surf 10334 1225-13 121.20 DWLWD +0.40 -0.25 0% 6.8
8 Force 11326 1017-7 111.00 DLLWD +0.00 +0.03 0% 8.1
9 Pleasanton RAGE 11317 1939-20 100.91 WLLLL +0.30 -0.07 0% 8.8
10 Placer United 12228 1432-18 80.67 LLWLL +0.27 -0.09 0% 10.0
11 Marin FC 11218 1121-10 70.64 DWLLL +0.50 -0.33 0% 8.7
12 Santa Rosa United 110110 343-40 10.09 LLLLD +0.38 +0.08 0% 12.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.