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Pleasanton RAGE

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU16 · 12 teams · Pleasanton Rage (all teams)

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9th
3-1-7 record · 11 played
0.91 points per game
-20 goal diff · 19–39
WLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.8
+0.30 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 06:10 PM

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Pleasanton RAGE
9th · 0.91 PPG
at
Stanislaus Surf
7th · 1.20 PPG

River Islands Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.5 against · 1.12 expected points)

Season so farPleasanton RAGEStanislaus Surf
Position9th7th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-73-3-4
Points per game0.911.20
Goals for / game1.71.2
Goals against / game3.52.5
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless33
Form (recent first)L L L L WD W L W D
Biggest win3–0 at Santa Rosa United2–1 at COSC
Worst loss0–7 at MVLA0–7 at San Juan SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.26-0.75
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.30+0.40

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 2–2 vs Stanislaus Surf (D)

Common opponents: Davis Legacy — we 1–5; they 1–0, 0–0. Bay Area Surf — we 0–6; they 0–5. San Juan SC — we 0–2; they 0–7. Placer United — we 3–2, 2–3; they 2–2. MVLA — we 0–7; they 2–4. Mustang SC — we 2–6, 2–4; they 2–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–6 at Bay Area Surf, 0–2 vs San Juan SC, 0–7 at MVLA.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 31%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 06:10 PM at River Islands Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Force sit 8th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.91.

    A point moves us above Force on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Stanislaus Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pleasanton RAGE – Stanislaus Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.83 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2
Win
1.08 PPG		 8th▲ up 1 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Draw
0.92 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Loss
0.83 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th 20%
  9. 9th 21%
  10. 10th 22%
  11. 11th 16%
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 1.95 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Bay Area Surf 2.82 (+1.91) 1st (2.59) 53 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 MVLA 2.45 (+1.54) 2nd (2.32) 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 San Juan SC 2.40 (+1.49) 3rd (2.25) 43 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Mustang SC 2.40 (+1.49) 4th (2.23) 43 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Davis Legacy 1.64 (+0.73) 5th (1.60) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6 COSC 1.33 (+0.42) 8th (1.00) 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
7 Stanislaus Surf 1.20 (+0.29) 6th (1.23) 17 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
8 Force 1.00 (+0.09) 7th (1.04) A point next game

How the results connect

88 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Pleasanton RAGE to Stanislaus Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

28 favour us
13 even
47 favour them
-0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 2–4 4–2 2–3 2–2 3–2 0–6 5–0 2–6 1–5 0–0 0–7 4–2 0–2 7–0 0–1 2–0 3–1 Pleasanton RAGE 9th Mustang SC 4th Placer United 10th Bay Area Surf 1st Davis Legacy 5th MVLA 2nd San Juan SC 3rd Stanislaus Surf 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 15 Aug 29 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 8th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
06:10 PM		 Stanislaus Surf
7th · 3-3-4 · GD -13		 Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.12 0.93 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM		 Santa Rosa United
12th · 0-1-10 · GD -40		 Home
Stanford Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 3–1 2.56 1.05 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
12:00 PM		 COSC
6th · 4-0-5 · GD -19		 Home
Stanford Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–2 1.85 1.11 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
03:00 PM		 Force
8th · 3-2-6 · GD -7		 Home
Stanford Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.34 1.13 Upside
Sun Nov 22
TBD		 Davis Legacy
5th · 5-3-3 · GD +10		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.43 1.08 Upside
Sun Apr 4
08:00 AM		 Force
8th · 3-2-6 · GD -7		 Away far trip
De Anza College		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.08 1.08 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Marin FC
11th · 2-1-8 · GD -10		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.08 1.08 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 PM		 COSC
6th · 4-0-5 · GD -19		 Away far trip
Edison High School Fields		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.53 1.10 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 MVLA
2nd · 9-0-2 · GD +44		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.09 1.05 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 San Juan SC
3rd · 8-0-2 · GD +27		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–5 0.11 1.01 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 Bay Area Surf
1st · 10-1-0 · GD +32		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–4 0.13 0.97 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Bay Area Surf 111010 375+32 312.82 WDWWW -0.43 +0.10 100% 1.3
2 MVLA 11902 5410+44 272.45 WWWWW -1.01 +0.45 100% 2.5
3 San Juan SC 10802 347+27 242.40 LWLWW -0.52 +0.17 100% 3.0
4 Mustang SC 10802 2814+14 242.40 LWWWW +0.10 -0.33 100% 3.2
5 Davis Legacy 11533 2313+10 181.64 DLWLD -0.28 +0.19 1% 5.1
6 COSC 9405 1029-19 121.33 LLWWL +0.17 +0.11 0% 8.7
7 Stanislaus Surf 10334 1225-13 121.20 DWLWD +0.40 -0.25 0% 6.8
8 Force 11326 1017-7 111.00 DLLWD +0.00 +0.03 0% 8.0
9 Pleasanton RAGE 11317 1939-20 100.91 WLLLL +0.30 -0.07 0% 8.8
10 Placer United 12228 1432-18 80.67 LLWLL +0.27 -0.09 0% 9.9
11 Marin FC 11218 1121-10 70.64 DWLLL +0.50 -0.33 0% 8.7
12 Santa Rosa United 110110 343-40 10.09 LLLLD +0.38 +0.08 0% 12.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.