Bay Area Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU16 · 12 teams · Bay Area Surf (all teams)

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1st

10-1-0 record · 11 played

2.82 points per game

+32 goal diff · 37–5

WDWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3

-0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:00 PM

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Bay Area Surf
1st · 2.82 PPG

MVLA
2nd · 2.45 PPG

Willow Glen High School, Football Stadium ↗ · turf?

47% 21% 32%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.7 against · 1.62 expected points)

Season so far	Bay Area Surf	MVLA
Position	1st	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	10-1-0	9-0-2
Points per game	2.82	2.45
Goals for / game	3.4	4.9
Goals against / game	0.5	0.9
Clean sheets	8	6
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W D W	W W W W W
Biggest win	7–0 vs COSC	10–0 at Santa Rosa United
Worst loss	—	1–3 vs Mustang SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.09	+2.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.43	-1.01

Common opponents: Santa Rosa United — we 4–0; they 3–0, 10–0. Stanislaus Surf — we 5–0; they 4–2. Pleasanton RAGE — we 6–0; they 7–0. Placer United — we 3–0; they 5–0, 5–0. Marin FC — we 1–0; they 3–0. Mustang SC — we 3–1; they 1–3. Force — we 1–1, 2–0; they 4–1. Davis Legacy — we 4–3; they 2–3. COSC — we 7–0; they 10–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
MVLA score 4.9/game — well above the league's 1.9.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
MVLA concede only 0.9/game with 6 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 21% / loss 32%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
They arrive in form
MVLA have won 7 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the MVLA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Bay Area Surf – MVLA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.83 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.83 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.58 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

77% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.3 average finish

1st 77%
2nd 18%
3rd 5%
4th 1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

114 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Bay Area Surf to MVLA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

45 favour us

11 even

58 favour them

-0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 5th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 11 10:00 AM no score posted	COSC 6th · 4-0-5 · GD -19	Away far trip Edison High School Fields	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	4–0	2.83	2.82	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM	MVLA 2nd · 9-0-2 · GD +44	Home Willow Glen High School · turf?	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–1	1.62	2.73	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 TBD	Mustang SC 4th · 8-0-2 · GD +14	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–1	2.20	2.69	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 TBD	San Juan SC 3rd · 8-0-2 · GD +27	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–1	1.77	2.63	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 TBD	Santa Rosa United 12th · 0-1-10 · GD -40	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	4–0	2.95	2.65	Bank it
Sun Apr 4 TBD	MVLA 2nd · 9-0-2 · GD +44	Away	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.34	2.57	Upside
Sun Apr 11 01:00 PM	Stanislaus Surf 7th · 3-3-4 · GD -13	Away far trip River Islands Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	3–0	2.65	2.58	Bank it
Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM	Placer United 10th · 2-2-8 · GD -18	Away far trip Placer Valley Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	3–0	2.74	2.58	Bank it
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Davis Legacy 5th · 5-3-3 · GD +10	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–0	2.29	2.57	Bank it
Sun May 2 TBD	Marin FC 11th · 2-1-8 · GD -10	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	3–0	2.69	2.58	Bank it
Sun May 9 TBD	Pleasanton RAGE 9th · 3-1-7 · GD -20	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	92%	4–0	2.81	2.59	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Bay Area Surf

+32

2.82

WDWWW

-0.43

+0.10

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	COSC (6th)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Force (8th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	4–3
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Force (8th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	San Juan SC (3rd)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Mustang SC (4th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Marin FC (11th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Placer United (10th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	6–0
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 11 at COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	COSC (6th)	4–0	93%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	MVLA (2nd)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Mustang SC (4th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	San Juan SC (3rd)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	4–0	98%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Placer United (10th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Marin FC (11th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun May 9	at	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	4–0	92%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MVLA

+44

2.45

WWWWW

-1.01

+0.45

100%

2.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Placer United (10th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Placer United (10th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	10–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Force (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Marin FC (11th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	2–3
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	4–2
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	COSC (6th)	10–1
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Mustang SC (4th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Force See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Bay Area Surf (1st)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Marin FC (11th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Force (8th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	San Juan SC (3rd)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Mustang SC (4th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Bay Area Surf (1st)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	COSC (6th)	5–0	96%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	San Juan SC (3rd)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	5–1	95%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun May 9	at	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	4–0	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Juan SC

+27

2.40

LWLWW

-0.52

+0.17

100%

3.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Marin FC (11th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Marin FC (11th)	3–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mustang SC (4th)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 27	at	COSC (6th)	6–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Placer United (10th)	6–0
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Force (8th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	7–0

Next: Sun Oct 4 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 10 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	Mustang SC (4th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	COSC (6th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	4–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Bay Area Surf (1st)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	MVLA (2nd)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	3–0	81%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Force (8th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	5–0	93%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Placer United (10th)	3–0	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mustang SC

+14

2.40

LWWWW

+0.10

-0.33

99%

3.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	4–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	6–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	4–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	San Juan SC (3rd)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Marin FC (11th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Bay Area Surf (1st)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Force (8th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Placer United (10th)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 15	at	MVLA (2nd)	3–1

Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 4 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 vs COSC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 27 (no score yet)	vs	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	San Juan SC (3rd)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	COSC (6th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Bay Area Surf (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Marin FC (11th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	MVLA (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	COSC (6th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Placer United (10th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	4–0	97%
·	Sun May 2	at	Force (8th)	2–0	64%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	2–1	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Davis Legacy

+10

1.64

DLWLD

-0.28

+0.19

5.1

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	0–0
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Marin FC (11th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Bay Area Surf (1st)	3–4
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Marin FC (11th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	COSC (6th)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Placer United (10th)	0–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	MVLA (2nd)	3–2
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Mustang SC (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	5–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United · Sun Nov 8 at COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	San Juan SC (3rd)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Placer United (10th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	COSC (6th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Force (8th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	San Juan SC (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Force (8th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sun May 2	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sun May 9	at	Mustang SC (4th)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

COSC

-19

1.33

LLWWL

+0.17

+0.11

8.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–7
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Placer United (10th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	San Juan SC (3rd)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Force (8th)	3–1
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 16	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–10
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Marin FC (11th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 at San Juan SC · Sun Oct 11 vs Bay Area Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Mustang SC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	San Juan SC (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mustang SC (4th)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Force (8th)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Marin FC (11th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Mustang SC (4th)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Placer United (10th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun May 2	at	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	2–0	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stanislaus Surf

-13

1.20

DWLWD

+0.40

-0.25

6.8

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Mustang SC (4th)	2–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Force (8th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Placer United (10th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	COSC (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	MVLA (2nd)	2–4
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 15	at	San Juan SC (3rd)	0–7

Next: Sun Sep 27 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 at Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 27 (no score yet)	at	Mustang SC (4th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Placer United (10th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Marin FC (11th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	San Juan SC (3rd)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	2–0	79%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Marin FC (11th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Force (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun May 2	vs	COSC (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun May 9	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force

-7

1.00

DLLWD

+0.00

+0.03

8.0

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Bay Area Surf (1st)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	MVLA (2nd)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	COSC (6th)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Mustang SC (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Marin FC (11th)	2–0
L	Sun Aug 16	at	San Juan SC (3rd)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Placer United (10th)	1–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs COSC · Sun Nov 8 at MVLA · Sun Nov 15 vs Davis Legacy See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	COSC (6th)	1–1	55%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	MVLA (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Placer United (10th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	San Juan SC (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Mustang SC (4th)	0–2	16%
·	Sun May 9	at	Marin FC (11th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pleasanton RAGE

-20

0.91

WLLLL

+0.30

-0.07

8.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Mustang SC (4th)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Mustang SC (4th)	2–6
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Placer United (10th)	2–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	MVLA (2nd)	0–7
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Placer United (10th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	San Juan SC (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–6
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Marin FC (11th)	4–2
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–5

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 15 vs COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	COSC (6th)	2–2	56%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Force (8th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Force (8th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Marin FC (11th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	COSC (6th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	MVLA (2nd)	1–5	2%
·	Sun May 2	at	San Juan SC (3rd)	0–5	2%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–4	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Placer United

-18

0.67

LLWLL

+0.27

-0.09

9.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 11	at	MVLA (2nd)	0–5
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	COSC (6th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	2–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	6–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	San Juan SC (3rd)	0–6
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Mustang SC (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Force (8th)	0–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Apr 3 vs Force See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Force (8th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Marin FC (11th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Mustang SC (4th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Marin FC (11th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	COSC (6th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun May 2	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	2–0	66%
·	Sun May 9	at	San Juan SC (3rd)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Marin FC

-10

0.64

DWLLL

+0.50

-0.33

8.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	San Juan SC (3rd)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	San Juan SC (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Santa Rosa United (12th)	4–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mustang SC (4th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	MVLA (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Force (8th)	0–2
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	2–4
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	COSC (6th)	0–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 at Mustang SC · Sun Nov 15 at Stanislaus Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mustang SC (4th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	COSC (6th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Placer United (10th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Placer United (10th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Santa Rosa United (12th)	2–0	70%
·	Sun May 2	at	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Force (8th)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Santa Rosa United

-40

0.09

LLLLD

+0.38

+0.08

12.0

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Force (8th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Force (8th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–10
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Marin FC (11th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	COSC (6th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	MVLA (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	San Juan SC (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Placer United (10th)	0–6
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 8 at Pleasanton RAGE See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	San Juan SC (3rd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Pleasanton RAGE (9th)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Mustang SC (4th)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Bay Area Surf (1st)	0–4	0%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Stanislaus Surf (7th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Davis Legacy (5th)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Mustang SC (4th)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Marin FC (11th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Placer United (10th)	0–2	15%
·	Sun May 9	at	COSC (6th)	0–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.