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Total Futbol Academy - OC

Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 17 teams · Total Futbol Academy - OC (all teams)

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13th
0-2-2 record · 4 played
0.50 points per game
-9 goal diff · 6–15
DLDLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.2
+1.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM

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Total Futbol Academy - OC
13th · 0.50 PPG
at

Lancaster National Soccer Center, 34 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.8 for, 3.8 against · 0.55 expected points)

Season so farTotal Futbol Academy - OCALBION SC Antelope Valley
Position13th5th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-22-0-1
Points per game0.502.00
Goals for / game1.53.3
Goals against / game3.82.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)L D L DW L W
Biggest win—7–1 vs LAIFC
Worst loss1–9 at ALBION SC San Diego (1)0–4 at California Football Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.02+0.74
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.12+0.63

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 14%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:30 PM at Lancaster National Soccer Center.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    CITY SC San Marcos sit 12th on 0.60 PPG; we are on 0.50.

    A point moves us above CITY SC San Marcos on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Antelope Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy - OC – ALBION SC Antelope Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.40 PPG
13th— holds 14th▼ down 1 17th▼ down 4
Win
1.00 PPG
11th▲ up 2 11th▲ up 2 14th▼ down 1
Draw
0.60 PPG
12th▲ up 1 13th— holds 16th▼ down 3
Loss
0.40 PPG
13th— holds 14th▼ down 1 17th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 13%
  13. 13th 23%
  14. 14th 27%
  15. 15th 20%
  16. 16th 2%
  17. 17th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 3.00 (+2.50) 1st (2.42) 46 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Inland Surf 3.00 (+2.50) 2nd (2.24) 46 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+1.83) 3rd (2.06) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.33 (+1.83) 4th (1.99) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2.00 (+1.50) 5th (1.80) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
6 California Football Academy 2.00 (+1.50) 7th (1.69) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.00 (+1.50) 11th (1.36) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
8 Rangers FC 1.75 (+1.25) 8th (1.69) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9 LAIFC 1.50 (+1.00) 6th (1.74) 22 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
10 Elite FC 1.50 (+1.00) 9th (1.51) 22 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
11 Fram Soccer Club 0.75 (+0.25) 12th (1.27) A point next game
12 CITY SC San Marcos 0.60 (+0.10) 15th (0.80) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Total Futbol Academy - OC to ALBION SC Antelope Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 favour them
-3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–4 2–3 4–0 1–9 5–3 1–3 Total Futbol Academ… 13th Rangers FC 8th ALBION SC San Diego… 1st California Football… 6th Elite FC 10th ALBION SC Antelope … 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.26 · 16th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:30 PM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.55 0.51 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:30 PM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Away
Brea Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–2 2.17 0.79 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
04:00 PM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Hoover High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–3 1.10 0.83 Upside
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
3–2 1.68 0.94 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
33%
3–3 1.14 0.96 Upside
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +9
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.40 0.90 Upside
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
7th · 2-0-1 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.28 0.94 Upside
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
LAIFC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +12
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
16%
2–4 0.61 0.91 Upside
Sat Jan 30
10:30 AM
California Football Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
Aliso Canyon Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
16%
2–4 0.61 0.89 Upside
Sat Feb 6
10:30 AM
BOCA OC
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -29
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
4–2 2.17 0.98 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–4 0.43 0.94 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Elite FC
10th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Home
Azusa High School · grass
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–2 1.08 0.95 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -0.56 -0.02 97% 1.7
2 Inland Surf 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -1.43 +0.34 87% 2.7
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 174+13 72.33 WDW -1.62 +0.22 67% 4.0
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3210 101+9 72.33 DWW -1.47 +0.24 53% 4.7
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW +0.63 -0.21 28% 6.2
6 California Football Academy 3201 119+2 62.00 LWW +0.45 -0.13 15% 7.0
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3201 811-3 62.00 WLW +0.32 -0.03 1% 10.2
8 Rangers FC 4211 137+6 71.75 WDWL -0.62 +0.17 16% 7.1
9 LAIFC 4202 2311+12 61.50 LLWW -1.11 +0.24 25% 6.4
10 Elite FC 4202 1010+0 61.50 LWLW +0.06 -0.08 6% 8.9
11 Fram Soccer Club 4103 1619-3 30.75 WLLL +1.00 -0.30 1% 11.0
12 CITY SC San Marcos 5104 1223-11 30.60 LWLLL +0.26 +0.05 0% 14.2
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4022 615-9 20.50 DLDL +1.12 -0.26 0% 13.2
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3012 28-6 10.33 DLL +1.19 -0.20 0% 13.2
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 122-21 00.00 LLL +0.45 +0.18 0% 16.5
17 BOCA OC 4004 433-29 00.00 LLLL +1.14 -0.08 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.