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Elite FC

Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 17 teams · SoCal Elite FC (all teams)

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10th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+0 goal diff · 10–10
LWLWlast 4
6% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.9
+0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:15 PM

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Elite FC
10th · 1.50 PPG
vs
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 0.75 PPG

Rincon Park, Field #1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.7 for, 3.0 against · 1.73 expected points)

Season so farElite FCFram Soccer Club
Position10th11th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-21-0-3
Points per game1.500.75
Goals for / game2.54.0
Goals against / game2.54.8
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W L W LL L L W
Biggest win5–2 at BOCA OC7–4 vs California Football Academy
Worst loss3–5 at ALBION SC San Diego (1)3–6 at City SC - San Diego (2)
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.09-0.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.06+1.00

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Fram Soccer Club concede 4.8/game; worst result 3–6 at City SC - San Diego (2).

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 52% / draw 15% / loss 32%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Fram Soccer Club have lost 3 straight (form: WLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    LAIFC sit 9th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above LAIFC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fram Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Elite FC – Fram Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.80 PPG
8th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 2 11th▼ down 1
Win
1.80 PPG
8th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 2 11th▼ down 1
Draw
1.40 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1
Loss
1.20 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 12th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
6% top 4
94% below the top 4
8.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 12%
  9. 9th 17%
  10. 10th 16%
  11. 11th 12%
  12. 12th 9%
  13. 13th 4%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.42) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 Inland Surf 3.00 (+1.50) 2nd (2.24) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+0.83) 3rd (2.06) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.33 (+0.83) 4th (1.99) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2.00 (+0.50) 5th (1.80) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
6 California Football Academy 2.00 (+0.50) 7th (1.69) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.00 (+0.50) 11th (1.36) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
8 Rangers FC 1.75 (+0.25) 8th (1.69) A point next game
9 LAIFC 1.50 (+0.00) 6th (1.74) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Elite FC to Fram Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 favour them
-3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–2 1–10 5–3 3–5 6–1 4–3 1–3 0–4 4–7 Elite FC 10th BOCA OC 17th ALBION SC San Diego… 1st ALBION SC Antelope … 5th Inland Surf 2nd FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 7th California Football… 6th Fram Soccer Club 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 11th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:15 PM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Home
Rincon Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
3–2 1.73 1.55 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
05:30 PM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Away
RJRSP
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.68 1.57 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
02:15 PM
CITY SC San Marcos
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -11
Home
Rincon Park
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–2 2.18 1.65 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
02:15 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
7th · 2-0-1 · GD -3
Home
Rincon Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
3–2 1.81 1.67 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego (2)
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.62 1.56 Upside
Sat Dec 12
09:25 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +9
Away
Samueli Academy
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.74 1.47 Upside
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.63 1.49 Swing game
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
4–1 2.54 1.58 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
2–3 0.83 1.52 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.29 1.50 Upside
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
42%
2–2 1.43 1.50 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -9
Away
Azusa High School · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–2 1.75 1.51 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -0.56 -0.02 97% 1.7
2 Inland Surf 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -1.43 +0.34 87% 2.7
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 174+13 72.33 WDW -1.62 +0.22 67% 4.0
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3210 101+9 72.33 DWW -1.47 +0.24 53% 4.7
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW +0.63 -0.21 28% 6.2
6 California Football Academy 3201 119+2 62.00 LWW +0.45 -0.13 15% 7.0
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3201 811-3 62.00 WLW +0.32 -0.03 1% 10.2
8 Rangers FC 4211 137+6 71.75 WDWL -0.62 +0.17 16% 7.1
9 LAIFC 4202 2311+12 61.50 LLWW -1.11 +0.24 25% 6.4
10 Elite FC 4202 1010+0 61.50 LWLW +0.06 -0.08 6% 8.9
11 Fram Soccer Club 4103 1619-3 30.75 WLLL +1.00 -0.30 1% 11.0
12 CITY SC San Marcos 5104 1223-11 30.60 LWLLL +0.26 +0.05 0% 14.2
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4022 615-9 20.50 DLDL +1.12 -0.26 0% 13.2
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3012 28-6 10.33 DLL +1.19 -0.20 0% 13.2
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 122-21 00.00 LLL +0.45 +0.18 0% 16.5
17 BOCA OC 4004 433-29 00.00 LLLL +1.14 -0.08 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.