ALBION SC San Diego (1)
Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 17 teams · ALBION SC San Diego (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM
Ronald Reagan Park, Ronald Reagan Park (9v9 field) ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 8–1 (expected goals 8.4 for, 1.7 against · 2.93 expected points)
| Season so far | ALBION SC San Diego (1) | BOCA OC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 17th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-0 | 0-0-4 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 6.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 8.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W | L L L L |
| Biggest win | 9–1 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC | — |
| Worst loss | — | 1–13 at LAIFC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.45 | -3.71 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.56 | +1.14 |
Common opponents: Elite FC — we 5–3; they 2–5.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
BOCA OC average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 3.2); blanked in 1 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
BOCA OC concede 8.2/game; worst result 1–13 at LAIFC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 8–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
BOCA OC have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:30 AM at Ronald Reagan Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the BOCA OC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC San Diego (1) – BOCA OC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.60 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
| Loss 2.40 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 8–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 59%
- 2nd 24%
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
- 11th <1%
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
3 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link ALBION SC San Diego (1) to BOCA OC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 9th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:30 AM |
BOCA OC 17th · 0-0-4 · GD -29 |
Away Ronald Reagan Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
8–1 | 2.93 | 2.99 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 10:30 AM |
LAIFC 9th · 2-0-2 · GD +12 |
Home Robb Athletic Field |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
4–3 | 2.12 | 2.84 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 12:30 PM |
ALBION SC Antelope Valley 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4 |
Away Lancaster National Soccer Center |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
3–2 | 1.89 | 2.71 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 09:25 AM |
ALBION SC Santa Ana 4th · 2-1-0 · GD +9 |
Away Samueli Academy |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–2 | 1.49 | 2.55 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 10:30 AM |
Rangers FC 8th · 2-1-1 · GD +6 |
Home Robb Athletic Field |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
4–2 | 2.21 | 2.52 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 10:30 AM |
City SC - San Diego (2) 3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +13 |
Home Robb Athletic Field |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
3–2 | 1.83 | 2.45 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 9 12:00 AM |
CITY SC San Marcos 12th · 1-0-4 · GD -11 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
5–2 | 2.66 | 2.47 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 23 10:30 AM |
California Football Academy 6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2 |
Away Aliso Canyon Community Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
4–2 | 2.06 | 2.43 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 12:00 AM |
LA Surf LC 15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
5–2 | 2.52 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 6 10:30 AM |
Fram Soccer Club 11th · 1-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
5–3 | 2.36 | 2.43 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 13 12:00 AM |
AC Brea 16th · 0-0-3 · GD -21 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
7–1 | 2.93 | 2.47 | Bank it |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Inland Surf 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +18 |
Home Robb Athletic Field |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
3–3 | 1.76 | 2.42 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | ALBION SC San Diego (1) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.56 | -0.02 | 97% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at BOCA OC · Sat Nov 7 vs LAIFC · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Inland Surf | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -1.43 | +0.34 | 87% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rangers FC · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley · Sat Nov 14 at LA Surf LC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | City SC - San Diego (2) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 7 | 2.33 | WDW | -1.62 | +0.22 | 70% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at California Football Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Rangers FC · Sun Nov 15 at ALBION SC Santa Ana See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ALBION SC Santa Ana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | -1.47 | +0.24 | 54% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Brea · Sun Oct 25 at LA Surf LC · Sat Nov 7 at Fram Soccer Club See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | ALBION SC Antelope Valley | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.63 | -0.21 | 26% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC · Sat Nov 7 at Inland Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | California Football Academy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | +0.45 | -0.13 | 15% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs City SC - San Diego (2) · Sat Nov 7 at CITY SC San Marcos · Sat Nov 21 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.32 | -0.03 | 2% | 10.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at LA Surf LC · Sat Nov 7 vs BOCA OC · Sat Nov 14 at Rangers FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Rangers FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 7 | 1.75 | WDWL | -0.62 | +0.17 | 15% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Inland Surf · Sat Nov 7 at City SC - San Diego (2) · Sat Nov 14 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | LAIFC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 6 | 1.50 | LLWW | -1.11 | +0.24 | 24% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LA Surf LC · Sun Oct 25 at FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC San Diego (1) See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Elite FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | +0.06 | -0.08 | 5% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fram Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sat Nov 14 vs CITY SC San Marcos See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Fram Soccer Club | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +1.00 | -0.30 | 0% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Elite FC · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sat Nov 14 at LAIFC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | CITY SC San Marcos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 3 | 0.60 | LWLLL | +0.26 | +0.05 | 0% | 14.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sat Nov 7 vs California Football Academy · Sat Nov 14 at Elite FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Total Futbol Academy - OC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 2 | 0.50 | DLDL | +1.12 | -0.26 | 0% | 13.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley · Sat Nov 14 at AC Brea · Sat Nov 21 vs LA Surf LC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +1.19 | -0.20 | 0% | 13.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CITY SC San Marcos · Sun Oct 25 vs LAIFC · Sat Nov 7 vs Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | LA Surf LC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Oct 24 at LAIFC · Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sun Nov 1 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | AC Brea | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 22 | -21 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.45 | +0.18 | 0% | 16.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sat Nov 7 vs LA Surf LC · Sat Nov 14 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | BOCA OC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 33 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +1.14 | -0.08 | 0% | 16.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1) · Sat Nov 7 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire · Sat Nov 14 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.