TableChase Clubs

CITY SC San Marcos

Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 17 teams · CITY SC San Marcos (all teams)

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12th
1-0-4 record · 5 played
0.60 points per game
-11 goal diff · 12–23
LWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.2
+0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:30 PM

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CITY SC San Marcos
12th · 0.60 PPG
vs

Cerro de Las Posas Park Stadium, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.6 for, 2.4 against · 1.47 expected points)

Season so farCITY SC San MarcosFLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
Position12th14th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-40-1-2
Points per game0.600.33
Goals for / game2.40.7
Goals against / game4.62.7
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L L L W LL L D
Biggest win6–1 vs AC Brea—
Worst loss2–9 at LAIFC0–3 vs Inland Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.36-0.79
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.26+1.19

Common opponents: Inland Surf — we 2–6; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 3.2); blanked in 1 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 43% / draw 18% / loss 39%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    Fram Soccer Club sit 11th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.60.

    A point moves us above Fram Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CITY SC San Marcos – FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.67 PPG
12th— holds 11th▲ up 1 16th▼ down 4
Win
1.00 PPG
11th▲ up 1 11th▲ up 1 14th▼ down 2
Draw
0.67 PPG
12th— holds 11th▲ up 1 16th▼ down 4
Loss
0.50 PPG
14th▼ down 2 13th▼ down 1 17th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 11th if every rival drops points, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 6%
  13. 13th 14%
  14. 14th 26%
  15. 15th 44%
  16. 16th 5%
  17. 17th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 3.00 (+2.40) 1st (2.42) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Inland Surf 3.00 (+2.40) 2nd (2.24) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+1.73) 3rd (2.06) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.33 (+1.73) 4th (1.99) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2.00 (+1.40) 5th (1.80) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6 California Football Academy 2.00 (+1.40) 7th (1.69) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.00 (+1.40) 11th (1.36) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 Rangers FC 1.75 (+1.15) 8th (1.69) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
9 LAIFC 1.50 (+0.90) 6th (1.74) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
10 Elite FC 1.50 (+0.90) 9th (1.51) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
11 Fram Soccer Club 0.75 (+0.15) 12th (1.27) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link CITY SC San Marcos to FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
2 favour them
-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–6 3–0 2–3 1–6 4–1 CITY SC San Marcos 12th Inland Surf 2nd FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 7th ALBION SC San Diego… 1st FLYTE SC Blue- Inla… 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 7th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:30 PM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Home
Cerro de Las Posas Park Stadium · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.47 0.75 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
California Football Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Cerro de Las Posas Park Stadium · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
22%
2–4 0.81 0.75 Upside
Sat Nov 14
02:15 PM
Elite FC
10th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away
Rincon Park
●●●●● Very tough
18%
2–3 0.69 0.75 Upside
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -9
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–3 1.16 0.79 Upside
Sat Dec 12
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
2–4 0.69 0.78 Upside
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
7%
2–5 0.27 0.74 Upside
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego (2)
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
10%
2–4 0.40 0.71 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
BOCA OC
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -29
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
5–2 2.45 0.84 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
2–3 0.71 0.83 Upside
Sat Feb 13
10:30 AM
Rangers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–4 0.47 0.81 Upside
Sat Feb 27
10:45 AM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Away
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●●●● Very tough
19%
3–5 0.70 0.80 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -0.56 -0.02 97% 1.7
2 Inland Surf 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -1.43 +0.34 87% 2.7
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 174+13 72.33 WDW -1.62 +0.22 70% 3.8
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3210 101+9 72.33 DWW -1.47 +0.24 54% 4.6
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW +0.63 -0.21 26% 6.2
6 California Football Academy 3201 119+2 62.00 LWW +0.45 -0.13 15% 7.3
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3201 811-3 62.00 WLW +0.32 -0.03 2% 10.3
8 Rangers FC 4211 137+6 71.75 WDWL -0.62 +0.17 15% 7.1
9 LAIFC 4202 2311+12 61.50 LLWW -1.11 +0.24 24% 6.4
10 Elite FC 4202 1010+0 61.50 LWLW +0.06 -0.08 5% 8.8
11 Fram Soccer Club 4103 1619-3 30.75 WLLL +1.00 -0.30 0% 11.0
12 CITY SC San Marcos 5104 1223-11 30.60 LWLLL +0.26 +0.05 0% 14.2
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4022 615-9 20.50 DLDL +1.12 -0.26 0% 13.3
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3012 28-6 10.33 DLL +1.19 -0.20 0% 13.2
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 122-21 00.00 LLL +0.45 +0.18 0% 16.5
17 BOCA OC 4004 433-29 00.00 LLLL +1.14 -0.08 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.