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AC Brea

Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 17 teams · AC Brea (all teams)

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16th
0-0-3 record · 3 played
0.00 points per game
-21 goal diff · 1–22
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 16.5
+0.45 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:25 AM

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AC Brea
16th · 0.00 PPG
at
ALBION SC Santa Ana
4th · 2.33 PPG

Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 1.0 for, 5.5 against · 0.08 expected points)

Season so farAC BreaALBION SC Santa Ana
Position16th4th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-32-1-0
Points per game0.002.33
Goals for / game0.33.3
Goals against / game7.30.3
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L L LW W D
Biggest win—5–0 at BOCA OC
Worst loss0–10 vs City SC - San Diego (2)—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.41+1.25
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.45-1.47

Common opponents: Rangers FC — we 0–6; they 1–1. CITY SC San Marcos — we 1–6; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    ALBION SC Santa Ana concede only 0.3/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 vs Rangers FC, 0–10 vs City SC - San Diego (2).

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 2%; a draw (3%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:25 AM at Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:25 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    LA Surf LC sit 15th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above LA Surf LC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Santa Ana game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Brea – ALBION SC Santa Ana) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 17th▼ down 1
Win
0.75 PPG
12th▲ up 4 11th▲ up 5 16th— holds
Draw
0.25 PPG
15th▲ up 1 15th▲ up 1 17th▼ down 1
Loss
0.00 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 17th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–5 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
16.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th 4%
  16. 16th 44%
  17. 17th 52%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.42) 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
2 Inland Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.24) 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+2.33) 3rd (2.06) 38 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.33 (+2.33) 4th (1.99) 38 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.80) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 California Football Academy 2.00 (+2.00) 7th (1.69) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.00 (+2.00) 11th (1.36) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 Rangers FC 1.75 (+1.75) 8th (1.69) 28 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
9 LAIFC 1.50 (+1.50) 6th (1.74) 24 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
10 Elite FC 1.50 (+1.50) 9th (1.51) 24 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
11 Fram Soccer Club 0.75 (+0.75) 12th (1.27) Win next game
12 CITY SC San Marcos 0.60 (+0.60) 15th (0.80) A point next game
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 0.50 (+0.50) 13th (0.95) A point next game
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 0.33 (+0.33) 14th (0.94) A point next game
15 LA Surf LC 0.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.40) Already ahead

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link AC Brea to ALBION SC Santa Ana through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
2 favour them
-7.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–6 1–1 1–6 0–4 AC Brea 16th Rangers FC 8th CITY SC San Marcos 12th ALBION SC Santa Ana 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.18 · 5th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:25 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +9
Away
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–5 0.08 0.02 Upside
Sat Nov 7
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–4 0.34 0.09 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:30 PM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -9
Home
Brea Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
18%
2–3 0.69 0.19 Upside
Sat Nov 21
12:30 PM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.12 0.18 Upside
Sat Dec 5
10:30 AM
LAIFC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +12
Home
Brea Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–6 0.12 0.17 Upside
Sat Dec 12
04:00 PM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Home
Brea Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–3 0.71 0.23 Upside
Sat Jan 9
10:30 AM
California Football Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
Aliso Canyon Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–6 0.13 0.22 Upside
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
Elite FC
10th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–4 0.36 0.23 Upside
Sat Jan 23
10:30 AM
BOCA OC
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -29
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●●●○ Tough
34%
3–3 1.17 0.31 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–7 0.04 0.29 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
7th · 2-0-1 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–5 0.27 0.29 Upside
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–7 0.05 0.27 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Away
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●●●● Very tough
4%
2–6 0.18 0.27 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -0.56 -0.02 97% 1.7
2 Inland Surf 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -1.43 +0.34 87% 2.7
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 174+13 72.33 WDW -1.62 +0.22 67% 4.0
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3210 101+9 72.33 DWW -1.47 +0.24 53% 4.7
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW +0.63 -0.21 28% 6.2
6 California Football Academy 3201 119+2 62.00 LWW +0.45 -0.13 15% 7.0
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3201 811-3 62.00 WLW +0.32 -0.03 1% 10.2
8 Rangers FC 4211 137+6 71.75 WDWL -0.62 +0.17 16% 7.1
9 LAIFC 4202 2311+12 61.50 LLWW -1.11 +0.24 25% 6.4
10 Elite FC 4202 1010+0 61.50 LWLW +0.06 -0.08 6% 8.9
11 Fram Soccer Club 4103 1619-3 30.75 WLLL +1.00 -0.30 1% 11.0
12 CITY SC San Marcos 5104 1223-11 30.60 LWLLL +0.26 +0.05 0% 14.2
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4022 615-9 20.50 DLDL +1.12 -0.26 0% 13.2
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3012 28-6 10.33 DLL +1.19 -0.20 0% 13.2
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 122-21 00.00 LLL +0.45 +0.18 0% 16.5
17 BOCA OC 4004 433-29 00.00 LLLL +1.14 -0.08 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.